Forget the Polls—Many Signs Point to Trump Win
At least artificial intelligence thinks Donald Trump will win. No kidding. That really is the story. CNBC reports that Trump is more popular in 2016 than Barack Obama was in 2008. Pouring over millions of communications, a computer has decided that Trump’s popularity makes him a shoo-in for the presidency.
An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the last three U.S. presidential elections puts Republican nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House.
MogIA was developed by Sanjiv Rai, founder of Indian start-up Genic.ai. It takes in 20 million data points from public platforms including Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the U.S. and then analyzes the information to create predictions.
The AI system was created in 2004, so it has been getting smarter all the time. It had already correctly predicted the results of the Democratic and Republican Primaries.
Data such as engagement with tweets or Facebook Live videos have been taken into account. The result is that Trump has overtaken the engagement numbers of Barack Obama’s peak in 2008 — the year he was elected president — by 25 percent.
Rai said that his AI system shows that the candidate in each election who had leading engagement data ended up winning the election.
“If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years since Internet engagement began in full earnest,” Rai wrote in a report sent to CNBC. . .
“While most algorithms suffer from programmers/developer’s biases, MoglA aims at learning from her environment, developing her own rules at the policy layer and develop expert systems without discarding any data,” Rai said.
Note that we earlier reported on Professor Allan Lichtman, whose 13-point model named Trump the sure bet in this year’s election. That article also explained that movement of the stock market is also predicting a Trump win.
Donald Trump is also convinced that he’ll win.
“We are gonna win,” Trump said. If he wasn’t absolutely sure that he’d clinch at least 270 electoral votes, Trump said he’d shift his language by vowing to “try to win” without guaranteeing it. . .
Surveying the electoral map, Trump offered a much brighter forecast than the one suggested by polls. . .”I think we’re going to do fantastically in Pennsylvania. . .I think we’re winning North Carolina. . .I think we will soon be up in New Hampshire,” he said. . . Trump also said that his margin of victory in Florida would be larger than the two percentage point lead that a new Bloomberg Politics poll has him beating Clinton. “I think we’re winning Florida actually by much more than your poll says. You just have us two points up,” he said. . .
While brimming with confidence about the state of the race and brimming with energy despite his breakneck campaign schedule, Trump was less sure about his ability to effectively communicate to enough voters.
“I don’t know if I’m a great messenger, but the message is absolutely the right message,” he said.
His movement was gaining an incredible amount of strength in the closing days, strength that would prove decisive at the ballot box. His evidence? At a rally this week, local authorities refused to further pack a venue, leaving a long line of supporters outside.
“You know the reason why they couldn’t get in?” Trump said. “Stampede.”
But don’t take Trump’s word for it. And if you don’t like the high-tech forecast of MogAI, there’s another foolproof forecaster to check: sale of Halloween masks.
Costume emporium Spirit Halloween made headlines when they recently reported that Donald Trump masks were outselling Hillary Clinton masks. The company maintains their Mask Index, which tracks and compares the sales of their presidential candidate masks, and they claim to have “accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996 based on their top selling candidate mask.”
If we’re to believe Spirit Halloween’s claims, that means we’ll be singing “Hail to the Chief” to President Donald J. Trump come November 9 — an outcome that is either a trick or a treat, depending on who you ask. . .
Meanwhile, Rubie’s, the world’s largest designer and manufacturer of Halloween costumes, experienced a similar three-to-one ratio in favor of its Donald Trump masks, according to a Washington Post report.
Meanwhile, Primary Model predicts Trump will win, with an 87% to 99% certainty. Their model has been predicting elections since 1912, and has been five-for-five since 1996. Note that the predictions were made even before the nominees won their primaries.
It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016; 87% if running against Hillary Clinton, 99% if against Bernie Sanders.
Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.
What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is the cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year.
In a match-up between the Republican primary winner and each of the Democratic contenders, Donald Trump is predicted to defeat Hillary Clinton by 52.5% to 47.5% of the two-party vote. He would defeat Bernie Sanders by 57.7% to 42.3%.
For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996. In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January of the election year.
Presidential elections going back as far as 1912 are used to estimate the weight of primary performance. It was in 1912 that presidential primaries were introduced. That year the candidate who won his party’s primary vote, Woodrow Wilson, went on to defeat the candidate who lost his party’s primary vote, William Howard Taft. As a rule, the candidate with the stronger primary performance wins against the candidate with the weaker primary performance. For elections from 1912 to 2012 the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960.
Note that the model also forecast that either Hillary Clinton OR Bernie Sanders would defeat ANY Republican who might have been nominated instead of Trump.
It is possible, of course, that the Republican Party will not nominate Trump as its presidential candidate. If the nomination were to go to Marco Rubio instead the PRIMARY MODEL would predict:
It is 86% certain that Hillary Clinton will defeat Marco Rubio. Clinton will get 52.4% and Rubio 47.6% of the two party vote.
According to the model, Ted Cruz or any other candidate (except Trump) would fare the same way against Clinton.
In the event that the Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders instead of Hillary Clinton, while the GOP nominates Marco Rubio, the PRIMARY MODEL would predict:
It is 89% certain that Marco Rubio will defeat Bernie Sanders. Rubio will get 52.8% and Sanders 47.2% of the two party vote.
According to the model, Ted Cruz or any other candidate (except Trump) would fare the same way against Sanders.
There you have it folks. According to artificial intelligence, political trends, a professor’s model, the stock market, Donald Trump himself, non-scientific social behavior, and a historical model, Donald Trump is assured of being our next president.
Filed in: 2016 Tagged in: 2016 Presidential Election Donald Trump odds polls predictions