At least artificial intelligence thinks Donald Trump will win. No kidding. That really is the story. CNBC reports that Trump is more popular in 2016 than Barack Obama was in 2008. Pouring over millions of communications, a computer has decided that Trump’s popularity makes him a shoo-in for the presidency.

An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the last three U.S. presidential elections puts Republican nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House.

MogIA was developed by Sanjiv Rai, founder of Indian start-up Genic.ai. It takes in 20 million data points from public platforms including Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the U.S. and then analyzes the information to create predictions.

The AI system was created in 2004, so it has been getting smarter all the time. It had already correctly predicted the results of the Democratic and Republican Primaries.

Data such as engagement with tweets or Facebook Live videos have been taken into account. The result is that Trump has overtaken the engagement numbers of Barack Obama’s peak in 2008 — the year he was elected president — by 25 percent.

Rai said that his AI system shows that the candidate in each election who had leading engagement data ended up winning the election.

“If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years since Internet engagement began in full earnest,” Rai wrote in a report sent to CNBC. . .

“While most algorithms suffer from programmers/developer’s biases, MoglA aims at learning from her environment, developing her own rules at the policy layer and develop expert systems without discarding any data,” Rai said.

Note that we earlier reported on Professor Allan Lichtman, whose 13-point model named Trump the sure bet in this year’s election. That article also explained that movement of the stock market is also predicting a Trump win.

Donald Trump is also convinced that he’ll win.

“We are gonna win,” Trump said. If he wasn’t absolutely sure that he’d clinch at least 270 electoral votes, Trump said he’d shift his language by vowing to “try to win” without guaranteeing it. . .

Surveying the electoral map, Trump offered a much brighter forecast than the one suggested by polls. . .”I think we’re going to do fantastically in Pennsylvania. . .I think we’re winning North Carolina. . .I think we will soon be up in New Hampshire,” he said. . . Trump also said that his margin of victory in Florida would be larger than the two percentage point lead that a new Bloomberg Politics poll has him beating Clinton. “I think we’re winning Florida actually by much more than your poll says. You just have us two points up,” he said. . .

While brimming with confidence about the state of the race and brimming with energy despite his breakneck campaign schedule, Trump was less sure about his ability to effectively communicate to enough voters.

“I don’t know if I’m a great messenger, but the message is absolutely the right message,” he said.

His movement was gaining an incredible amount of strength in the closing days, strength that would prove decisive at the ballot box. His evidence? At a rally this week, local authorities refused to further pack a venue, leaving a long line of supporters outside.

“You know the reason why they couldn’t get in?” Trump said. “Stampede.”

But don’t take Trump’s word for it. And if you don’t like the high-tech forecast of MogAI, there’s another foolproof forecaster to check: sale of Halloween masks.

Costume emporium Spirit Halloween made headlines when they recently reported that Donald Trump masks were outselling Hillary Clinton masks. The company maintains their Mask Index, which tracks and compares the sales of their presidential candidate masks, and they claim to have “accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996 based on their top selling candidate mask.”

If we’re to believe Spirit Halloween’s claims, that means we’ll be singing “Hail to the Chief” to President Donald J. Trump come November 9 — an outcome that is either a trick or a treat, depending on who you ask. . .

Meanwhile, Rubie’s, the world’s largest designer and manufacturer of Halloween costumes, experienced a similar three-to-one ratio in favor of its Donald Trump masks, according to a Washington Post report.

Meanwhile, Primary Model predicts Trump will win, with an 87% to 99% certainty. Their model has been predicting elections since 1912, and has been five-for-five since 1996. Note that the predictions were made even before the nominees won their primaries.

It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016; 87% if running against Hillary Clinton, 99% if against Bernie Sanders.

Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.

What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is the cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year.

In a match-up between the Republican primary winner and each of the Democratic contenders, Donald Trump is predicted to defeat Hillary Clinton by 52.5% to 47.5% of the two-party vote. He would defeat Bernie Sanders by 57.7% to 42.3%.

For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996. In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January of the election year.

Presidential elections going back as far as 1912 are used to estimate the weight of primary performance. It was in 1912 that presidential primaries were introduced. That year the candidate who won his party’s primary vote, Woodrow Wilson, went on to defeat the candidate who lost his party’s primary vote, William Howard Taft. As a rule, the candidate with the stronger primary performance wins against the candidate with the weaker primary performance. For elections from 1912 to 2012 the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960.

Note that the model also forecast that either Hillary Clinton OR Bernie Sanders would defeat ANY Republican who might have been nominated instead of Trump.

It is possible, of course, that the Republican Party will not nominate Trump as its presidential candidate. If the nomination were to go to Marco Rubio instead the PRIMARY MODEL would predict:

It is 86% certain that Hillary Clinton will defeat Marco Rubio. Clinton will get 52.4% and Rubio 47.6% of the two party vote.

According to the model, Ted Cruz or any other candidate (except Trump) would fare the same way against Clinton.

In the event that the Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders instead of Hillary Clinton, while the GOP nominates Marco Rubio, the PRIMARY MODEL would predict:

It is 89% certain that Marco Rubio will defeat Bernie Sanders. Rubio will get 52.8% and Sanders 47.2% of the two party vote.

According to the model, Ted Cruz or any other candidate (except Trump) would fare the same way against Sanders.

There you have it folks. According to artificial intelligence, political trends, a professor’s model, the stock market, Donald Trump himself, non-scientific social behavior, and a historical model, Donald Trump is assured of being our next president.

110 COMMENTS

  1. Keep in saying you aren’t supporting Trump and then putting out this kind of tripe. This type of article, when it is just for fun is one thing. Treating this kind of “predicting” as serious information shows your bias.

    • I’m going to level with you..Most people don’t admit they are voting for Trump unless they know you are.We feel we are going to be shamed but all you have to do is look at the competitive size of the rallies and see Trump will win.

      • Bernie Sanders thought the same thing, huge rallies mean I am winning, but you are how far that got him.

        If you are ashamed of who you are voting for, perhaps you should reexamine your choice.

        • Except that Hillary conspired with the DNC to steal the primaries from Bernie. Many Bernie fans didn’t appreciate that or how he sold out to Hillary. #NeverHillary #Trump2016

            • Kenny, – I think a whole lot more now, will be out there to vote for Trump, since he has been such an inspiration to make some REAL CHANGE,…& not the same as others have promised.

          • Sanders was never a Democrat. Look at his registration for reelection to the Senate. He was using the Democratic party because, in his own words he would not have gotten enough attention as an independent. He lost fairly by popular vote and pledged delegates. You Trumpets are just mad because the democrats were smarter and kept control of our party and weren’t taken over by our Trump (Sanders).

            • Wrong!
              Both parties tried to rig their primaries, but the rebublocrats weren’t near as corrupt as the destructocrats, and neither side saw Trump coming.
              Trump has exiled the globalist neocons from the party, and he will now throw globalist Hillary into prison.
              Trump will save us all.

            • I guess it was hard for you to notice how the democrats got caught red handed rigging their primary, Jeb! being humiliatingly defeated, the press caught red handed giving debate questions to Hillary, the “justice” department pardoning Hillary on an an airport Tarmac, and Clinton goons paying mentally unstable bums to pick fights at Trump rallies, huh?
              It was probably pretty hard for you to catch all that with your head up hillarys….wherever.

            • Hillary just doinked you with a tinfoil phallus, and she didn’t even give you a goodbye kiss.
              Ya dork!

        • I don’t think it is a question of being ashamed to vote for Trump. It is a question of being afraid of what Clinton supporters would do if they found out, like threat to person, property or livelihood.

          • That’s really funny. Have you ever heard of anyone being beat up at a Clinton rally? Have you ever eard a Clinton supporter, or Clinton herself say that Trump should be assasinated? Ask the 69 year old woman who was knocked out at a Trump rally who’s supporters are violent.

            Remember, we are the ones for gun control, not for open carry or concealed carry. We are not likely to be armed and thinking we can take on the world with our own little arsenal.

            Remember, Clinton supporters are only threatening one thing. That is that we will vote that narcissistic, misygonistic, homophobic, bigot down and send him home with his tail between his legs, just as he deserves.

            • Hmmm, what about GOP office in North Carolina being firebombed, or people with Trump signs in the yards having their homes vandalized, such as this 70 year old woman https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/local/wp/2016/03/12/trump-supporters-virginia-house-vandalized/

              How about democratic operatives instigating violence at Trump rallies or physically attacking trump supporters (even chasing down and attacking young boy):

              https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/06/03/ugly-bloody-scenes-in-san-jose-as-protesters-attack-trump-supporters-outside-rally/

              Or disgraceful harassment of a homeless woman for disagreeing with defacement of Trump’s star on Hollywood boulevard?

              I could go on. These are widely reported incidents, even in the mainstream press. I have included two WP links, which is open in its democratic party support. Step outside your cozy narrative and wake up.

            • Incidents of incivility have been common, and they have been from both sides. Yes, the NC office was bombed, but we don’t know by whom–and Democrats raised money to rebuild it. Likewise, there was the bombing with “Trump” left behind. Again, we don’t know who did it, but the nastiness this year has been without precedent, and is on both sides.

            • You been living under a rock or something?
              The Clinton campaign paid agitators to pick fights at Trump rallies.
              Check out the Project Veritas videos.

            • Says politico – one of main Hillary sycophants. Only a nitwit believes those liars.

              Watch the PV videos. There is no question who those goons are, and what their trying to do.
              No question they were trying to rig the election.
              None!
              I dare you to watch them.
              You will feel like a fool for supporting Hillary if you do.
              I dare you!

            • Whatever troll.

              The videos will be used as valid evidence at multiple trials.
              They’ve already convicted Hillary in the court of public opinion, and they are just the tip of the iceberg when the RICO investigation starts.
              The whole corrupt machine of the destructocrats is about to be blown up when Trump takes over the White House.
              America can’t wait to watch.
              Just the thought of it was good for 30 million extra Trump votes.

            • Maybe Trump will pay their legal bills.
              He said he’d pay the legal bills of those who beat up people at his rallies.

            • Who’s going to pay hillarys legal bills?

              The Feds seize I’ll gotten gains these days.

              George soros?

      • merccougar89,- I have been pro-Trump, since I first heard him speak.
        I’ve heard others state the same thing, but don’t understand why anyone would be ashamed to say that.
        Wanting what he does, for this country, is a good thing & no one should hold back, if that is what they believe.

        • Valerie: It’s not that people are “ashamed” to vote Trump. They’re just embarrassed to say so, because there has been so much sleaze in the campaign. The person knows he or she will be jumped on, so it’s easier just not to mention it.

      • I think shame is the wrong word here. Many trump supporters are afraid of Clinton supporters. They are afraid of retaliation of some kind, the kind with real tangible costs, like loss of income or damage to property.

    • LOL! What a good laugh this morning. Seriously? What the hell do you think the media has been doing for that she/man for the last year. Who cares if someone uses the same propaganda tactics for Trump. I say kudos to anyone who will turn the tables. I would vote for Gumby before I would vote for that lying, traitor. Trumps only charge is he is rich and may have had shady business dealings. Hellary lied to the FBI, a crime in itself, put US secrets at risk, and knew information she didn’t act on in order to save our soldiers in Benghazi. Yeah, she really loves her country. (I encourage everyone to watch ALL of the FBI’s questioning on each of these charges she has been in front of them for) As for Trumps womanizing…..Those Bimbos that came forward nearly a decade later are full of it. All of them are the type to sleep with anything in order to get to the top anyway. I am sure they were distraught at his remarks. (insert sarcasm) My goodness..poor babies were so shaken they couldn’t even speak about it for six to ten years later. What a crock!

      • Generally speaking, abused people don’t want anyone to know. Sometimes, they think they may have done something to invite an attack. It is really not uncommon for someone to hide it, but if someone else comes forward, they finally can, too.

        I’m not arguing whether Trump is guilty or not. I’m just saying the argument that a “nobody” would/could jump right up to fight a billionaire (known for litigating anything) doesn’t hold water.

  2. I don’t think that any previous predictive methods like this work because their has never been a candidate such as T.Rump that has made such a travesty of this election process. AI analysis of social media engagement is skewed because his followers troll sites with racist, misogynistic insults, and these posts, tweets etc are often from them same people over and over again. I have encountered them repeatedly. As to Donald Trump being convinced that he will win, he is also convinced that women will let him do anything to them because he’s a celebrity. Sale of Halloween masks? His sell more because his is the most scary clown in history, and, if we are going to use that model then Harley Quinn is going to be president. As to that prediction from Primary model made before the nominees won their primaries, really? What data is that based on? Does the cycle of Presidential elections take into account the popularity of this particular incumbent? Lord I will be glad when this is over so that our country can stop being the laughingstock of the rest of the world.

  3. Did the AI, professor, stock market or anything else take into account that Billary is the most despised Democratic candidate in probably ever. I wonder if any of these predictors know that she has been under constant scrutiny as well as having been and is once again under FBI investigation??

    If you ask me and many, many others she is more PRISON MATERIAL than presidential material. Some of these models didn’t factor in the ultimate opponent for the Wicked Witch, that would be BEELZEBUB himself. She would lose to him as well.?

    All you Trump haters, be ready for to sing the praises of president Trump on November the ninth.?

  4. IT observers estimated that social media activity during the third debate showed the Trump campaign is using four times more ‘bots’ (automated accounts) to generate tweets than the Clinton team. If this is not accounted for in the MogIA process, then it, sorry ‘she’, will be delivering flawed results.

    The stock markets and bookmakers here in the UK were indicating a Remain vote in the weeks before the EU referendum. There was a massive spike upwards in the value of sterling in the three days before. They were wrong, along with the polls, and the value of sterling crashed drastically. Gallup has taken the decision not to publish any polls on the Presidential election – they are carrying on with polling activity only to identify where the errors are occurring in the system, as the EU poll was just one big event that pollsters got wrong in the last year.

    • The “Brexit effect” is probably a hoax. Yes, the gamblers were betting overwhelmingly that Remain would win, but the polls were quite accurate–that it would be very close. The same thing is happening here, now. Bettors are giving Hillary between 75% and 85% chance of winning, whereas the polls only have her a few points ahead.

      The final average of polls for Brexit showed only a 48-46 tilt toward Remain, within the margin of error–and the 6% undecided vote may have gone toward Leave.

      https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

      There was also evidence that the Remain public were over-confident. The voting rate in the Leave areas was higher than in the Remain areas, suggesting that many Remain voters didn’t think they had to bother.

      • I think you are right about the Brexit effect, but it’s generally true that polling bodies are scratching heir heads about recent big political events,

        http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-37736161

        Lots of people voted in the EU referendum that had never voted before. The danger in the US election is that committed voters will abstain from supporting their parties’ candidate. The only question is how many?

        • I think you’re absolutely right. Two things could be happening:

          (1) It’s been such a nasty campaign that some “likely voters” may just ignore the election, and
          (2) Because this is an election like no other, a lot of people who have never voted, might.

          Those two possibilities would throw the polls totally out the window.

        • Right. But are you unaware of the power of enthusiasm–and the importance of turnout?

          There is a silver lining for Hillary in the email flap. For the first time, her supporters are MAD. Up to now, all the anger has been on Trump’s side.

          • Way to change the subject.

            If polls a week before the election show that, for example, there’s 70% support for Candidate A and 30% support for Candidate B, that does not mean that Candidate B has a 30% chance of winning. The chance of Candidate B winnibg in this scenario, would be equal to the likelihood that 20% of voters would change their mind over the span of one week. In other words, Candidate B will have nearly 0% chance of winning.

            For Trump, he has to flip several states in which he is quite clearly behind, as well as several in which he is slightly behind, and in addition he needs to win a number of virtual coin tosses. The popular vote is not relevant here.

  5. Can this AI distinguish between pro and anti Trump traffic? At least 95% of the Trump related posts I have seen are Anti-Trump.

    • If you are only looking at liberal channels, your observations are correct. If however you look at Conservative channels then the posts are virtually 100% the opposite.

        • I would love to participate in discussions on liberal channels and I still do on two. Unfortunately shortly after I joined DISQUS I was banned on NEWS VIEWS and I self exiled myself from two other liberal channels. This was because I dared to have a different opinion than the majority.

          I agree with you that if you only interact with those you agree with, some of you are superfluous. But here I am, apparently TOLERANT LIBERALS are rather INTOLERANT!!!

      • Yeah, because there’s definitely not a major split in the Republican party right now. In other news, the Pope is definitely not Catholic.

    • 100% of posts I have seen about Clinton are negative, considering she has been under investigation regarding the email scandal for the last 2 years. It has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that she lied under oath to a congressional hearing. For this crime alone she should have been given jail time. This is the sentence given to everyone for this particular crime. Yet she is still in the presidential race. She cannot be allowed to win since this makes a complete mockery of the American judicial system. Trump may not be a particularly pleasant person, but his misdemeanors pale in comparison to Clinton’s actual crimes. People may not want to support Trump, and that is understandable, but why would anyone support Clinton.

  6. All I know is they keep saying how Hillary has Michagan easy, But I don’t know one person in Michagan this is voting for her. Not even all my friends that are in the UAW. They all voted for Obama, and a few even told me to leave their house when I voted for Bush. But now they are all voting for Trump. Lol . Can’t wait until the 9 th too see this.

    • That’s the trouble. Most Trump fans don’t know anyone, personally, who is for Clinton, and Clinton fans don’t know anyone who is for Trump.

      I live in Michigan, and I know a LOT of people who are for Clinton, and I know a slightly lesser number of people who are for Trump. You need to get out more.

  7. I want to know why Trump and his party hasn’t been hacked? Why has there only been one old video really being used against him? There’s so much material out there, and why haven’t we seen any of all his misbehaving and his horrible treatment of women. He’s been treating women awful since we have first heard of him! Why hasn’t his taxes been released, why because he’s using old loop holes that are illegal, and why doesn’t this matter to people? I just don’t understand how people can be behind a man that has done nothing but treat women as objects and not people?

    • Whats the point of hacking into his party when the media is always talking trash about him. Hillary has got the media under her thumb. If you remember Bill Bush and Trump are suing because that tape was part of a private conversation. He’s been treating women awful so has Hillary. She made fun of Bill’s accusers, she was calling Mexicans “needy Latinos” in some released tapes, and her campaign was making fun of Catholics. Oh and also for the first Presidential Debate CNN fire Brazile because evidence was found that she gave Hillary the debate questions before hand. She lied under oath, she could protect five men in Benghazi, (yet she thinks she can protect a whole nation)

      • Last part not true. Brazile warned Hillary what questions she may have to face–but it was in the primary with Bernie Sanders, not in the “presidential debate.”

  8. Greetings to you all,i am here to give a life testimony on how Dr.Madupe cured
    me of HIV disease,i tried various means to get this sickness out of my
    body, all the possible ways i tried did not work out for me,but i had faith
    that i was going to be cured one day, as i was a strong believer in God and
    also in miracles, One day as i was on the internet i came across some
    amazing testimonies concerning how Dr Madupe has cured people of various
    sickness with his Herbal Herbs Medicine,my family advised i contact
    Dr.Madupe, with that i had hope and i contacted him i told him about
    my Sickness, He told me not to worry that he was going to prepare some
    Herbal Medicine for me, after some time in communication with Dr.Madupe, he
    finally prepared for me some herbs which was delivered to me and he also
    gave me prescriptions on how to take them, My good friends after taking
    Dr.Madupe Herbs for some weeks i started to experience changes in me and
    from there, I noticed some symptoms was no longer in my body,and i also
    went for test and to my greatest surprise was told that i was free and
    clear of HIV virus, Today i am fit and healthy in joy and happiness, I am
    so happy and excited for the good work of Dr.Madupe in my life.Friends if
    you are having any type of sickness or problem, kindly email Dr.Madupe on{
    [email protected] } DR.Madupe IS SPECIALIZED IN……
    1} getting your ex back .2} promotion at work.3} to recover you lost
    money.4} want to stop a divorce 5} want to win court cases. 6} want to
    win gambles.7} To conceive baby.8} Cure for any kind of sickness or
    diseases like AIDS,HIV,Cancer and so on.9} If you want to win contracts.
    Just contact him if you have any problem he will help you.(
    [email protected] )

    • If you’re talking about the professor’s model, it doesn’t predict popular or electoral votes. It just predicts the “winner.”

Comments are closed.