The thing about polls is that they are just a snapshot—a gauge of what’s happenin’ now. Remember when Jeb Bush was expected to win easily—then Walker—then Carson? That’s just to point out that what people think today may be very different from what they think in July—or November.

That being said, things look pretty good for Hillary right now. We even have maps!

If the presidential election was held today, businessman Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would lose to Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, according to an extensive Morning Consult analysis of 44,000 poll respondents.

The analysis is the first glimpse of how Clinton might perform against the remaining Republican candidates in every state. It uses the opinions of 44,000 registered voters, collected since January, plus a variety of characteristics in each state like age, gender, and President Obama’s approval rating, to determine what the results of a presidential election might look like now. About 20 percent of voters are undecided, but the maps below capture who wins a plurality in each state, and with that, the electoral college.

Here’s the electoral college breakdown for each candidate, directly from Morning Consult.

Here’s how Hillary would do against Donald Trump:
Clinton v Trump

Hillary would do even better against Ted Cruz:
Clinton v Cruz

However, Kasich would beat Hillary, if the election were today.
Clinton v Kasich

Ohio Gov. John Kasich is the only candidate who could beat Clinton in November. Both Trump and Cruz would lose to Clinton by considerable margins in a head-to-head race, winning just 210 and 206 electoral college votes, respectively. By contrast, Kasich comfortably beats Clinton, racking up 304 electoral college votes to her 234.

Kasich easily clears the 270 votes needed for the White House by winning a bloc of Midwest states that Republicans haven’t won since President George H.W. Bush was elected in 1988. Our analysis shows Kasich winning every state that Trump and Cruz win, but he also adds victories in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Clinton performs 3 to 10 percentage points better against Trump or Cruz in those states than against Kasich.

Of course, this is if the election were held today. In a year of negative campaigning. The sales pitch and personality of Trump and Cruz are well known—and not very well liked. Kasich has been the bland character on the debate stage, and this may be why he is doing well in this poll. In a year like this, it’s better to lie low and cover your head.

Never-the-less, the conservative National Review offers five reasons why they think Hillary will be our next president.

First Female President–Hillary’s official announcement video was devoid of a clear campaign message — but does she really need one other than, “It’s time for a woman president”?

The Electoral College Is the GOP’s Worst Enemy–Our constitutionally mandated Electoral College has evolved to a point where it is slanted in favor of the Democratic party’s nominee.

Obama’s Third Term–President Obama’s current job approval rating stands at 45.3 percent, with a 50.3 percent disapproval rating, according to Real Clear Politics. These are highly respectable approval numbers for a seventh presidential year.

Bill Clinton’s Third Term– “Bill Clinton is almost certainly the most popular person in American politics. A new NBC-Wall Street Journal poll showed that 56 percent of people have a positive view of the former president while just 26 percent hold a negative one.”

Republicans and the General-Election Curse–In five out of the past six presidential elections, starting with 1992, Republicans have lost the popular vote.

This is a snapshot in polling that the Clinton campaign would like to freeze until November.

ADDENDUM

As noted by numerous commenters, Bernie Sanders polls better than Hillary does in general election match-ups against all three GOP candidates.

For full disclosure, see the numbers from RealClearPolitics:

Trump v Sanders (Sanders +16)
Cruz v Sanders (Sanders +11)
Kasich v Sanders (Sanders +3)

14 COMMENTS

  1. You are posting this 1 day before NY primaries and aren’t sven mentioning that Bernie beats Republicans by larger margins in those same polls? Seriously dude!?

  2. Can’t wait for the article later to day titled “In 2016 Bernie can beat (absolutely) anybody”
    Because obviously this was a fair and unbiased article the day before the 2nd biggest remaining primary…

  3. Right! Bernie’s analysis might be later. However, for every step forward Bernie takes toward the nomination, he takes 11/2 or 2 backwards. The old saying, “the hurrieder I go, the behinder I get,” applies to Bernie’s progress in collecting delegates. So, an article on “Bernie can beat (absolutely) anybody” is just a waste of everybody’s time. (As was the bit on Kasich)

  4. R.K. I was thinking the same damn thing the whole time reading of how convenient of them to boost Hillary the day before NY. In comparison Bernie Sanders slaughters everyone on the republican side with higher % margin than Hillary does when we’re talking about Electoral College. They’re basically saying Hillary is “good enough” for our first woman president so lets make her one. False. Oh but lets forget that she is not honest, flip flops, and allegedly involved in Federal criminal acts against this country. We don’t need “good enough”. We need a honest for the people type of person in the oval office for our future generations, one that can get governors, representatives, and senate seats swapped with people that will listen to their people and work for people not the other way around. Only Bernie at this moment can do this with his revolutionary surge of voter turn outs.

    This idea that Hillary is qualified or deserves to be the first woman
    president is appalling I can name a half dozen women from the left or
    right that is better suited than her. Ones that are not just a name
    brand and corporate puppet.

    I like this app for updates/notifications but this article triggered me so hard that I had to actually log in and say something on here. Please try to remain unbiased or add in that although Hillary beats the Republicans (EXCEPT Kasich) that Bernie actually beats them better (INCLUDING Kasich) and why he is the clear choice with almost virtual no margin of error to the right. Thanks.

    • Addendum added to show Bernie’s polling. No bias intended, this article was just focusing on Hillary. It was slated to publish late last week but I’ll take the blame for the appearance of impropriety here. None intended.

      • Thank you sir, duly noted. Though justice would prevail with the old and faithful man getting an article.

        I think Petter Wilhelmsen may be on to something. 🙂

  5. This is just a Hillary ad. Each of the larger spenders seem to like to see theor names online as much as they can, so they purchase spots through their PAC’s. She is owned by Oil and Wall Street so…. She has tons to spend.:(

  6. Why is everyone getting so bent out of shape about an article focusing on how HRC polls against Republicans in the general? What difference does it make if one Democratic candidate beats Trump or Cruz by a different margin than the other candidate according to POLLS? Shouldn’t we be focused on the fact that Sanders and Clinton BOTH poll well above the Republican candidates??? This article in no way showed bias for Clinton. Much ado about nothing…

    • The article in the context of the NY primary makes it seem as though polls indicate she’s the stronger candidate and you should vote for her if you want to see a Democratic president. Which is factually untrue. I’m not saying this was intentional, but if not, it’s very unproffesional. And virtually no one will read the p.a.

  7. Guys, I live in Australia and if you are hell bent on having a woman President, I would like to tell you about our experience with a woman Prime Minister. There are great similarities between Clinton and our disaster (Gillard) in that they both have a very chequered past and probably lucky to not have a criminal record. Both are anti conservative Lawyers with no fiscal management experience. Ours had a Union background and was beholden to them to the detriment of our Country while she was in office. My take on Clinton from an outsider looking in and taking into consideration the information available via the media and internet is that choose your next President VERY carefully, and don’t get carried away with the hype of wanting to have the first woman President. There a was great movement back in 2007 for you to have the first black President, and look how that turned out for you. Having a first of something is not always the best choice. Fortunately our “experiment” only lasted for 3 years before her own Party booted her out, but we are still paying for her stuff ups and will be for some time.

Comments are closed.