The Democratic primary will be headed west this weekend for the Nevada Democratic Caucus which happens on Saturday, February 20th. The most recent poll shows a tied race with Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders splitting the vote at 45 percent each. In prior polling from December of last year, Clinton was leading by over a 20 point margin.

Here’s the remaining schedule for Democrats in February. Note that the Democratic and Republican contests in Nevada and South Carolina are being held on different dates.

Saturday, February 20
Nevada Democratic Caucus

Saturday, February 27
South Carolina Democratic Primary

Report from the New York Times:

Liz Hernandez learned what deportation was at age 5, when immigration officers burst into her home and hauled away her father and four uncles. Five years later, she and her mother, younger sister and infant brother, after a brief return to Mexico in a failed attempt to start a family farm, crossed the desert headed north again in a sweltering van driven by smugglers.

Now 25, Ms. Hernandez is among the volunteers here for Senator Bernie Sanders, seeing his presidential bid as “the best choice for our community and for the change we’ve been wanting to see,” as she put it between calls to voters from a campaign phone bank.

“I really do believe Bernie Sanders is concerned about me having a chance,” she said.

In the battle for Nevada, which will hold its Democratic caucuses on Saturday, the fight is largely being waged by young Latinos, many of them immigrants, who by the hundreds are seizing on the chance to focus attention on the hardships they have faced and to play a potentially pivotal role in electing the next president.

Mr. Sanders’s supporters, racing to persuade voters unfamiliar with the Vermont senator to embrace his focus on economic inequality, are determined to prove that he can win over a diverse electorate after taking New Hampshire and coming close in Iowa. Hillary Clinton’s supporters, drawing on a network of alliances she forged in the 2008 presidential campaign, are equally determined to bring Mr. Sanders’s political momentum to a screeching halt.

But for foreign-born voters and first-generation Americans, much more is at stake in Nevada than campaign gamesmanship.

The latest poll, and perhaps only poll done so far this year, shows a dead heat. The complete poll breakdown is available here, though the polling firm is not well-known so take the numbers with a grain of salt. As seen on RealClearPolitics, the last Nevada poll was in December showing Clinton with a 23 point lead.

I think the takeaway is that, similar to Iowa, Nevada can be considered a toss-up with either campaign in a position to win the race. It may come down to ground game and whether Clinton can hold her coalition together or whether Sanders can peel off enough voters to build on his New Hampshire momentum.

Nevada was considered a “firewall” for Clinton as a way to rebound after an expected New Hampshire loss. If Sanders pulls an upset in Nevada, or creates another 49% to 49% tie, then the South Carolina Democratic Primary will become all that more important on February 27th.

18 COMMENTS

        • Nate: FiveThirtyEight has no choice but pay attention to it, since pollsters don’t care what Democrats do–so that adds no credbility.

          Sergeant: Totally agree. Look at those questions. It’s what’s called a “Push Poll,” in which the “pollster” is really there to change your opinion, not record it. These questions are like, “if Joe Schmo kills puppies and eats them, would that make you less likely to vote for him?”

          • As a Sanders supporter, I really have to try and be as objective as I possibly can and if a poll is questionable I will call it out just the same if was biased in Hillary’s favor.

    • I agree that the barking shows that Hillary just doesn’t understand how to communicate. What is she thinking when she does stuff like that??

      But Howard Dean did NOT “sink himself.” The media did. He had promised that he was going to break up the big media conglomerates, so they purposely made him look silly. He had a deluxe “isolating condenser” microphone–which only picked up near sounds, while filtering out background noise.

      His response was to a room with 2,500 cheering fans. He felt bad about coming in second to Kerry, and wanted to encourage them. His “scream” was just to be heard above the crowd. This is what it really sounded like:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3Meg3CEyUM

      And here’s a good discussion:

      https://www.quora.com/Was-Howard-Deans-presidential-campaign-really-sunk-by-his-infamous-campaign-speech-scream-or-were-other-factors-to-blame

      The media SHOULD have mixed in sound from the other microphones there–to show context–but they wanted it to appear that Dean was desperate and delusional. Mission accomplished.

      But the fact was, Dean was already fading before New Hampshire. The scream didn’t “sink” him, it just gave the media a toy to play with.

      OH, and by the way, Dean lost by just 12 points. Nobody’s criticizing Kasich for making his 20-point loss this year look like a “victory.”

  1. In the last poll Clinton was ahead by 22 points. Now the latest poll indicate a tie. i is not even current. Probably sanders has an edge by now.
    Sanders’ campaign has the momentum and it keeps gaining more . Clinton’s “firewalls” are crumbling. Her campaign claimed after her big loss in New Hampshire that they will win Nevada. How ? Because there are fewer whites than Iowa and New Hampshire. Now they are saying Nevada is also too white, they will win SC.

        • Sanders wins the momentum! Hillary is clearly the winner of the DNC and establishment vote; but, Democrats need the youth and independent voter. Trump is the winner if the establishment is to be measured.

          • Yeah, instead of the Democratic party running to the “middle” and letting the Republicans push them to the left, the Democratic party needs a left wing, a true left wing, that pushes the Republicans to the left. Right now you have the center and center-right party of the Democrats that gained power in the 90s, and a far right party in the Republicans. Sure the Green party exists, but it is not a party that has a lot of pull.

  2. I’m voting for Hilliary. Bernie wants a political revolution which means he wants the people to take to the streets to over throw the goverment. He’s too radical to be president.

    • Revolution – a dramatic and wide-reaching change in the way something works or is organized or in people’s ideas about it.

      Try not to be misleading, for words have different meanings based on the context it is in.

    • Let us not forget our “Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government” and indeed our “duty” “to throw off such government” that has become unresponsive to protecting the basic rights of its people. These are not my words. They are Thomas Jefferson’s as set forth in our Declaration of Independence:

      We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

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