While it’s true that Donald Trump has held the top spot nationally for one hundred days, the same isn’t true in the latest poll of likely Iowa Republican caucus voters. The newest out of Iowa, from Quinnipiac, shows Ben Carson with an eight point lead over Trump in the Hawkeye State.
Report from Quinnipiac:
With a big boost from women, Dr. Ben Carson leads Donald Trump 28 – 20 percent among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with 13 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and 10 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to the results of a September 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 27 percent with Carson at 21 percent.
Today, Sen. Rand Paul is at 6 percent, with Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 5 percent each. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 3 percent undecided.
Carson tops Trump 33 – 13 percent among women. Men are divided as 25 percent back Carson and 24 percent go with Trump.
Trump tops the “no way” list as 30 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants say they “would definitely not support” him for the GOP nomination. Bush is next on this “no way” list with 21 percent.
For 28 percent of Republican Caucus-goers a candidate who shares their values is most important, while 23 percent most want a candidate who is honest and trustworthy.
Carson shares their values, 84 percent of Republicans say, and 89 percent say he is honest and trustworthy, topping the GOP field for both qualities.
“It’s Ben Carson’s turn in the spotlight,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Here’s the easy-to-read breakdown for the latest in Iowa:
28% – Carson
20% – Trump
13% – Rubio
10% – Cruz
6% – Paul
5% – Bush, Fiorina (tied)
The next Republican debate happens on Wednesday of next week and it will feature a new dynamic of the race. In the first two debates, it was Scott Walker and Jeb Bush nipping at Donald Trump. At this point, however, Walker is out and Bush is in a polling free-fall which leaves Ben Carson and Marco Rubio as the next in line.
Amazingly, for Bush to have fallen down to five percent in Iowa, he doesn’t even appear to be in contention anymore. Sure, it’s only October and things could change, but this is a deep hole to dig out of.