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Well, it’s the first 2016 debate of either party and it is sure to be a raucous occasion given the current state of the Republican field. Donald Trump, among nine others, will likely make the cut which will produce the most-watched first-of-the-cycle primary debate of all time in my opinion. Check back on August 7 and we’ll see if that prediction is correct, as I’m almost certain it will be.

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Report from USNews:

The first major televised Republican presidential debate is two weeks away, on August 6, and it’s shaping up as a defining moment in the fight for the GOP nomination.

The likely star of the debate – the candidate who is generating the most news coverage and the most intense positive and negative reactions – is billionaire real estate developer Donald Trump. His nationwide celebrity, his attention-getting personality and his exposure on the popular TV show “The Apprentice” will make him a big attraction. And Trump’s willingness to practice the politics of derision has Republican establishment leaders worried that he could turn the proceedings into a nasty series of insults and counter-insults.

“I think you have to assume he’ll be loud and aggressive and do everything he can to stay on offense,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich told Politico. “Trump is very smart. He has lots of TV experience and is absolutely uninhibited.” Gingrich is a veteran of the 2012 presidential campaign, and he did well by taking the offensive in several debates that year, even though he lost the GOP nomination to Mitt Romney.

Fox News, which is sponsoring the encounter in Cleveland, intends to limit the participants to 10 of the 16 announced candidates, based on their standing in five of the most recent national polls. If current trends hold, according to an analysis by the New York Times, those most likely to qualify will be, in the order of their polling support: Trump, former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, retired surgeon Ben Carson, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, although the last few candidates on this list could easily slip off the stage if their unimpressive polling numbers decline in the next two weeks.

That would be eight debaters, and there’s room for two more.

Who will the “two more” be? Head over to an article on our partners site for a more detailed look into the polling. As it stands, the field is settling a little bit with Donald Trump planted firmly at the top, for now.

1 COMMENT

  1. This will be a pretty terrible debate for one simple reason: Ten people. Assuming there is two full hours of discussion (there should be more, but…), that’s only 120 minutes – 12 minutes of talking time per person. That’s barely enough to scratch the surface of even a single issue, much less several of them.

    Expect The Donald to come out of this strong – he excels at quick put-downs and witty one liners, which is all most people can really do with such small slices of time. Ted Cruz is an excellent debater, but may not have enough time to really bring that out – he has a tendency to get really wordy in an attempt to dramatize every moment. If he can fight that instinct he might surprise a lot of people.

    I feel that Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio have the most to lose from this debate. Between Trump with his attitude, Cruz with his ability to dissect and refute, Walker with his strong record (he did survive two recall attempts et al.), and Rand Paul with his strong libertarian principals, the others are really lacking something special that distinguishes them from everyone else. They’re almost interchangeable.

    I see Huckabee and Carson as competing for the same voter base, but neither one has a serious shot at the white house. They’re just not strong candidates. Carson, especially, is in way over his head on this one. He is weak on the second amendment (a big deal for conservatives) and his foreign policy experience is zero. Add to that his stance on homosexuality (prison makes you gay, remember) and he’s a certain failure even against the worst of the candidates on the Democrat side. You could pick anyone – anyone at all – and Carson would lose in a landslide.

    Even though she is very far behind in the polls, I would love to see Fiorina get a shot at this. I’d like to see Kasich in there as well, but only because he’s my governor – and he’s done some things that I like (lower income tax, reduced spending, bringing lots of jobs in). Ohio has done pretty well with Kasich at the helm.

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