There is some legitimacy to the argument that 2014 may turn out to be both good and bad for Republicans in regard to the 2016 presidential election. On the on hand, it gives them some increased clout in states like Ohio and Florida, two must-win swing states. However, at the same time, GOP gains in the U.S. Senate allow the eventual 2016 Democratic candidate run against the Republican-controlled congress and separate him or herself from the Obama administration.
Report from The State Press:
On Nov. 4, Republicans seized the Senate and the governor majority while keeping control of the House of Representatives — a feat that hadn’t been accomplished since 2006. Obviously, it was a huge win for the Republican Party, right?
Not quite. If we look a little closer, we can see that the Democratic Party now has everything to gain in the presidential election coming up in two years. While the Republican Party is celebrating, Democrats will be getting down to business.
Comparing the 2010 Democratic electorate to this one, there has been a marginal increase among women, Latinos and voters in the western U.S. — a fact that is being undermined by the Republican Party domination.
Although a majority of millennial voters ages 18 to 29 supported the Democratic Party, their voter turnout rates plummeted from 19 percent in 2012 to 13 percent this time around. Low voter turnout among this demographic aided the wave of Republican wins.
Considering younger voters are more likely to vote in presidential elections, we can expect voter turnout to be much less of a problem for the Democratic Party in 2016. Not to mention, during the 2010 midterm election, the Republican wave of voters helped the GOP to major victories — but President Barack Obama won the Presidential election in 2012.
With strong potential Presidential candidates like Hillary Clinton representing the Democratic party, who’s to say that history won’t repeat itself? [Emphasis added]
The question will be something political analysts will ponder for the next two years. Can Democrats replicate the turnout model conjured by Barack Obama in 2008, and repeated in 2012, if he is not on the ballot? If they’re able to do so, Republicans will have a lot of work to do if they hope to overcome that in 2016. If Democrats cannot repeat the formula in 2016, will the next presidential election resemble 2000 or 2004 in terms of issues and turnout models?