We’ve regularly quoted Breitbart, The Daily Caller, Newsmax, and other right-wing websites. It was brought to our attention that we have not quoted any left-wing sites. So let’s fix that. Yesterday, we showed the Breitbart’s map, with how Trump would win. Now, let’s turn to Daily Kos, and their map.
Over the course of this presidential campaign, Daily Kos Elections has logged 1,371 state-level presidential polls into our database. All signs point to a Hillary Clinton victory.
Our forecasting model indicates that Clinton is highly likely to win key states including Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Wisconsin. In all five of these states, Clinton has never trailed in our average of the polls—and if she carries all of them, she would win the election over Donald Trump with 273 electoral votes, three more than the 270 required for victory. In addition, our model also favors Clinton in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada. Together, those states contribute another 50 electoral votes.
That gives us our final prediction: Clinton 323 electoral votes, Trump 215. . . As recently as one week ago, Clinton held such a commanding lead that our model placed her chances of winning as high as 96 percent. Since then, the race has tightened, and we currently estimate Clinton’s odds of victory at 88 percent.
All of the other maps we’ve shown in the past two days have shown no more than a 275 electoral vote win by Hillary—meaning a Trump win if he were to flip just one state. Most of the other liberal sites just referred to existing maps. Daily Kos says, no way! And so does Rare.us, giving Hillary 341 Electors.
Last week, we looked at the six states that Donald Trump had to win: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Virginia. I expect Donald Trump to lose all six of them. In addition, I expect Clinton to pull out a narrow win in Ohio. . .
Why did I flip Ohio from Trump to Clinton? Because last weekend, missing black voters started showing up at early voting sites. Among the places that saw a surge in early voting was Montgomery County, which includes Dayton. Why? Because Ohio Democrats have called in the big guns to help increase turnout.
Meanwhile, Huffington Post cites early voting, and projects that Hillary will win with 285 Electoral Votes.
Early voting is nearly over. More people have voted early in the 2016 election, 46.26 million than in the 2012 election in its entirely, which saw 46.22 million. There are several states with incomplete or no reporting, so the raw number will only continue to climb.
What does this mean for overall turnout? Some of voters are clearly changing when they voted, opting to vote early instead of Election Day. However, the high level of early voting may also be a sign of increased overall turnout. Most likely a combination of the two are at play.
With many states reporting their near-final early vote numbers, here is my prognostication based on the early voting. You may disagree given the polls, and I very well may be wrong. There are several close calls and the lightly shaded states could go either way. I’m trying my best to remain true to what can be learned from the early vote.
ThinkProgress had an interesting map.
ThinkProgress ridicules Trump’s claims of “rigging,” since Republicans are in charge of overseeing the election in the majority of the States.
Donald Trump continued on Monday to push his claims that the election is “rigged” against him, falsely suggesting widespread voter fraud and raising the specter of a conspiracy of media outlets scheming to provide negative coverage of his candidacy.
But while he may believe he the only way he could possibly lose would be for the 1.8 million deceased people to cast ballots against him, and an array of other vote-rigging techniques, many of those who oversee elections in the states have pushed back against his claims.
And most of those chief elections officers are Republicans, some of whom have publicly endorsed Trump.
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 26 states have an elected secretary of state or lieutenant governor who oversee elections, and seven more have those officials share authority with a commission or board. Eight more states have a chief official selected by the legislature or governor; the rest are run by an appointed commission of some sort.
The Daily Beast doesn’t have a map, but they have an opinion.
In the flat-earth world, Trump should be headed to a landslide. He’s running against a Democratic opponent who faced a fierce primary, historically one of the keys to winning the White House. Rarely does the White House remain in the same party for three terms. Hillary Clinton is hardly a fresh face and started the general election with high negatives. This should be a cake walk for the angry candidate building an army of missing white voters. How’s it working?
By running a campaign appealing to white voters, Trump is doing less well with white voters than Mitt Romney (I was the chief strategist for that campaign). Trump’s on track to lose white college-educated voters, something no Republican has done since the FDR era. Even Barry Goldwater won white college-educated voters. Romney won white women by 14 points. Trump will probably lose white women.
And, finally, Mother Jones went nuts with maps, but they’re really interesting.
We previously showed the FiveThirtyEight maps, which showed that Trump would win in a landslide if only men voted—and Hillary would win even more bigly if only women voted.
What if only White people voted?
What if only Black people voted?
What if only Hispanic or Latinos voted?
What if only 18-29-year-olds voted?
What if only the 65 and older voted?
Apologies to progressives who may have felt slighted because we have not cited their sites before.
