Can Bernie Pull Off Another Michigan?
The New York primary is happening on Tuesday, and many people are wondering whether Bernie Sanders has been making a dent in Hillary’s lead over the past couple weeks. According to the current average, Hillary leads by around 13 points. However, according to Bernie, we’ve “been here before” with polls which, he claims, are under-representing his numbers.
Report from Politico:
Bernie Sanders urged caution Monday against interpreting polls showing him trailing Hillary Clinton in New York. His argument: We’ve been here before.
“Those are the public polls. The bottom line is, let’s look at the real poll tomorrow,” the Vermont senator told NBC’s “Today.” “Generally speaking, polling has underestimated how we do in elections.”
Sanders noted that his campaign was down by as many as 25 points in Michigan before it pulled off the upset victory on March 8.
According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls of likely voters in New York’s April 19 Democratic primary, Clinton leads Sanders by nearly 13 percentage points, and there’s no sign that he’s closing the gap.
“The main point is, I think, we have a message that’s resonating all over this country,” Sanders said. “We have enthusiasm. We have energy. People understand it’s too late for establishment politics and economics. They want real change in the country. They want leadership to stand up to the billionaire class. That’s what we are providing.”
The polls have been more or less mostly accurate during the primaries. There have been some notable exceptions, such as the Michigan Democratic primary, and perhaps the Iowa Republican caucus among others. It seems that with voter opinion changing over the course of hours, sometimes the pollsters just can’t find the right formula in the days leading up to the some of the most crucial votes.
This polling conundrum is what Bernie is counting on in New York. I’d still say he’s naturally at a disadvantage with Hillary’s history as a former U.S. Senator from New York, but the race has tightened in recent weeks.
I would wager that the final outcome tomorrow will be within just a few points on the Democratic side. I’ll let you predict which campaign comes out on top.