Republicans have spent weeks publicly insisting their midterm problems can be turned around. Behind closed doors, Ken Paxton apparently has a somewhat different assessment.
The Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas was caught on leaked audio acknowledging that President Donald Trump’s recent convention in Dallas hurt Republican poll numbers, including his own. The recording comes as Paxton finds himself in a surprisingly difficult race against Democrat James Talarico in a state Republicans have carried comfortably for decades.
According to Mediaite, the comments came during a private fundraiser after an attendee asked Paxton whether Trump had become “a little bit of a drag.”
Paxton didn’t exactly dismiss the premise: “To be honest with you, the numbers, when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers,” Paxton said. “Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.”
That’s a remarkable admission from one of Trump’s most prominent allies, particularly because Trump went to Dallas intending to help Republicans heading into the final stretch of the 2026 midterm elections.
Paxton isn’t talking about some theoretical problem either. His own race has become considerably more competitive than Republicans expected.
The Texas Polls Explain the Concern
The recent polling has been remarkably consistent. Democrat James Talarico has led Paxton in every major September survey currently listed by the University of Texas Texas Politics Project poll tracker, although several of those margins are small and within the surveys’ margins of error.
The latest Marist poll, conducted Sept. 17-20 among 1,139 registered voters, produced the largest recent margin:
Marist (Sept. 17-20, 1,139 registered voters)
- James Talarico (D): 50%
- Ken Paxton (R): 44%
Other likely-voter polls have shown a much closer race. Texas Southern University had Talarico ahead 47% to 46%, while Emerson also found a 47% to 46% contest. ReconMR/Siena had Talarico ahead by six.
We’ve been tracking the race along with the other major contests on our 2026 Senate polling page. Texas becoming genuinely competitive would be a major headache for Republicans as they try to defend their Senate majority.
Paxton’s Campaign Pushes Back
Paxton’s campaign disputes the significance of the recording. A campaign adviser told reporters that internal polling shows Paxton ahead and accused the media of presenting the conversation misleadingly.
That’s worth keeping in mind. Leaked snippets from private conversations don’t tell us everything a candidate thinks, and public polls aren’t election results.
But Paxton’s own words are difficult to completely explain away. Asked privately whether Trump was becoming a drag, he didn’t respond with the usual campaign answer about the president energizing Republicans or helping candidates.
He talked about numbers dropping.
And with Republicans already confronting unexpectedly competitive races in Iowa, South Carolina and other states, that’s probably not the answer GOP campaign officials wanted to hear from their Senate nominee in Texas.