Early voting in New York City has exploded, signaling a potential shake-up in the final days of the mayoral race. The first day of early voting drew 79,409 ballots citywide — about five times higher than the turnout on the same day in 2021, when only 15,418 voters showed up.
By comparison, four years ago, the first-day totals were: Manhattan 4,563, Brooklyn 3,751, Queens 3,441, Bronx 2,079, and Staten Island 1,584. The growth this time is across every borough, suggesting voters are more energized than usual and eager to have their say early.
Polling May Be Way Off
The jump in early turnout could make this election much harder to predict. Pollsters base their projections on past voting patterns, but a surge like this means a different kind of electorate could be showing up. If new or infrequent voters are turning out in large numbers, the usual “likely voter” models may not hold.
- Polls could miss shifts in turnout among younger or less traditional voters
- Borough-level enthusiasm could skew results toward candidates with stronger local ground games
- Heavy early voting often reflects momentum that isn’t yet captured in the latest polling averages
With participation soaring, there’s a real chance that the polls could prove to be wildly off come Election Day in one direction or another.
Mamdani’s Muslim Card
The self-proclaimed left-wing socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani has tried to frame parts of his campaign around claims of anti-Muslim discrimination, arguing that media scrutiny of his anti-American background is unfair. But many voters don’t appear to be responding to that message. Recent headlines linking him to pro-Jihad figures have caused pause for some New Yorkers when considering their vote.
Mamdani’s effort to turn the discussion into one about religious prejudice isn’t resonating beyond his base. With early turnout spiking and moderates appearing more engaged, his narrative may be falling flat.
A Volatile Finish Ahead
The combination of record early turnout and shifting public perception could make this race far more unpredictable than expected. New voters, new enthusiasm, and a candidate controversy have all collided at once. If the surge continues through the week, New York City could be heading toward one of its biggest political surprises in years.