All roads lead through the Iowa caucuses for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
If anything happens along the path to victory, his campaign might just be coming in for a hard landing. After all, former President Trump lost the Iowa caucuses in 2016. If he’s vulnerable anywhere, he should be vulnerable there.
With the political rumor mill being what it is, take the following with a grain of salt.
According to Douglas MacKinnon writing at The Hill, if DeSantis doesn’t win Iowa, his campaign will come to an abrupt ending:
I have heard from two people very familiar with the DeSantis campaign — a major donor and a high-level political operative — that if the Florida governor loses the Iowa caucuses to former President Donald Trump as expected on the night of Jan. 15, he will either drop out of the race that night or make his announcement the next morning.
More than that, both believe DeSantis will then — very begrudgingly — endorse Trump for president.
Should both predictions come to pass, DeSantis would be jumping on a bandwagon that is dramatically increasing in speed and taking on more and more Republican politicians looking to back the clear frontrunner.
If DeSantis can’t win Iowa, the state where he’s putting all his political eggs, does it make sense to bother wasting any more time and money? His donors, typically the driving heartbeat of a campaign, would seemingly say no. If the money dries up, the campaign is over unless you’re a self-funded billionaire.
Beyond the potential withdrawal announcement, DeSantis might even go a step further and endorse Trump to save his standing for a run in 2028 or whatever the next path might be in his political career. He’s spent several months now low-key bashing Trump in various ways, he’ll need to make amends if he wants to ask MAGA to vote for him down the road. Whether he receives forgiveness is a topic for another day.
Endorsing Trump over Nikki Haley is the only way to start mending fences with MAGA.
For what it’s worth, the DeSantis campaign vehemently denies the premise of MacKinnon’s op-ed and says they’re in it for the long haul. To what end, though, is it worth it to waste time on a dead-end campaign trail?
MacKinnon makes some astute points that DeSantis could’ve waited until 2028 and avoided the fight with MAGA. As it stands now, is he damaged goods even four years down the road? MacKinnon concludes:
From the outset, DeSantis decided — or was more likely pushed by overeager supporters — to challenge the “cult of personality” figure of Trump, most especially after his almost 20-point landslide victory for reelection in 2022. But now, just over a week from the Iowa caucuses, DeSantis is realizing that he is not only taking on a “cult of personality,” but one infused with increasing folk hero status because of the Democratic “lawfare” being waged against him.
I have long believed that the time for DeSantis was 2028. That also may now be a bridge too far.
Ron DeSantis is a shrewd politician but he took a lot of bad advice for the past year or so. The most egregious piece was the claim that once he announced a presidential campaign, the only direction was up. Political reality turned the opposite direction with DeSantis losing support and donors over time and alienating the voters he needed in the process.
It would not be surprising to see DeSantis exit the race on Jan. 15 if he performs poorly in the Iowa caucuses or doesn’t exceed expectations. It would also not be surprising to see him hold out the month and at least wait until South Carolina.
On the other hand, how much embarrassment does he want to take if he does place third or a very distant second?
Ten days from now, the race might look completely different.
