There has been a lot of polling data released as of late but none quite puts the 2024 election in perspective as the latest Marist/PBS NewsHour poll.
The current numbers show a statistical tie between Trump and Biden for the presidency, but the data underneath compared to previous cycles is what should be alarming for Democrats.
It was InteractivePolls on X that first pointed out the seismic shift toward Trump among independent voters since October 2020:
?? 2024 GE: Independents
Oct. 2020:
(D) Biden: 57% (+21)
(R) Trump: 36%Dec. 2023:
(R) Trump: 50% (+5)
(D) Biden: 45%NPR/Marist College (A) https://t.co/PdQ8APGUHg pic.twitter.com/EMhL10bvUc
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) December 13, 2023
Trump’s current lead among independents is not quite as strong as Biden’s was a few years ago, but it’s a double-digit gain for Trump heading into 2024.
It’s not dissimilar from the shift in 2021 when Virginia elected Republican Glenn Youngkin by 1 point after previously voting for Biden in 2020 by 10 points over Trump.
If Democrats lose the middle in 2024, they’re done for. This isn’t to say that Republicans aren’t continually vulnerable on the issue of abortion, they haven’t figured out proper messaging or how to address the issue since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Democrats will still be trying to ride that wave into the presidential year.
The Marist numbers indicate a loss of confidence in the economy and a growing dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. Independents turned against Trump in 2020 mainly because Biden was the “boring” candidate, or so it seemed. What “boring” translates to in reality is a deteriorating economy, unaffordable housing, skyrocketing inflation, and growing foreign unreset. In short, boring is weakness on the world stage and the failed policies of socialism.
Among other tidbits from the latest Marist numbers, Biden’s job approval and favorability are in the basement:
Biden’s job approval rating among Americans is 40%, little changed from 42% last month. In contrast, 53% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s job performance. 42% of Americans strongly disapprove of how Biden is doing his job compared with 23% who strongly approve.
Biden’s favorability rating among Americans is upside down, 40% favorable to 53% unfavorable. In October, 43% of residents nationally had a favorable impression of Biden while 51% had an unfavorable one. By nearly two-to-one, Americans are more likely to perceive Biden very unfavorably (39%) than very favorably (20%).
This is not a messaging problem for Biden, it’s a policy problem. There’s no good way to spin Bidenomics in a way that voters view it positively. They’ve seen too much evidence on the grocery store shelf.
There’s talk that inflation is “cooling,” but you wouldn’t know it from looking around or checking the receipt after you buy food for a week. It’s all a smokescreen with the numbers to try and sell something positive from Biden’s failing economy:
Behind all the headlines this week saying Inflation has gone lower, Core Services Inflation Accelerates.
The CPI for core services (without energy services) on a month-to-month basis rose 0.47% in November from October, or by 5.8% annualized (blue line).
The three-month moving… pic.twitter.com/0C2hix1v4U— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) December 14, 2023
Whatever direction you look or whichever numbers you slice, practically everything costs more under Biden’s policies. Voters looking to buy their first home are finding out what inflation and higher interest rates mean for housing affordability, and it’s brutal.
By measure after measure, people are losing their autonomy due to Biden’s mismanagement of the American economy and the polling data shows that independents are jumping ship.
