There’s a lot of hand-wringing happening within the ranks of the GOP primary field over Trump’s rising poll numbers.
Candidates like Chris Christie are flabbergasted as to why anyone should be losing to a two-time indicted candidate who says a lot of uncouth things. For the rest of the field, and especially in the DeSantis campaign, it’s the same environment that’s been shaping up for the past few months.
There’s no denying Trump’s lead in the primary. The question is whether it’s insurmountable or if could there eventually be some cracks in the armor.
According to the most recent numbers from NBC News, Trump’s numbers went up in June by quite a bit:
Former President Donald Trump has expanded his lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the rest of the Republican presidential field since Trump’s latest indictment on federal criminal charges, according to a new national NBC News poll.
“For the first time in history, a former president has been indicted, and we can’t find a marker in this survey that it’s had an impact with his standing,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.
“Not only are they sticking with Trump post-federal indictment,” Horwitt said of Republican voters, “there are several signs that his support is growing or others are losing ground, particularly Ron DeSantis.”
The actual numbers are pretty bad for the whole field but especially bad for DeSantis in particular:
While Trump has gained 5 points overall, he’s actually gained 14 points on his lead over DeSantis.
The Florida governor lost support in June, down 9 points which is a travesty considering the money and time he’s been spending on the campaign trail over the past 30 days or so. Some have speculated recently that it seems like DeSantis has “disappeared” somewhat as of late, perhaps because he’s busy or perhaps because his campaign is doing some recalibrating of messaging and focus.
There’s always been some thought that if the race came down to a two-person contest between Trump and DeSantis, the latter would somehow win. Not so, according to these numbers:
Trump’s 29-point lead over DeSantis in a multi-candidate field is an increase from April’s NBC News poll, when 46% preferred Trump as their first choice versus 31% who picked DeSantis. That survey was conducted soon after the former president was indicted in New York for his alleged role in a hush-money case.
When the GOP presidential race gets reduced to just two candidates in the current survey, Trump gets support from 60% of Republican primary voters, while DeSantis gets 36%.
When asked to choose, between the two, DeSantis gets a big bump, but it’s still not enough to overtake Trump’s lead.
Here’s a question to ponder. If the race remains as it stands today, would Trump use his poll numbers as a reason to skip the first Republican debate coming up in August? After all, he’s commanding over 50% support among GOP primary voters, does he need to step on a debate stage and risk elevating another candidate?
There are arguments to be made in both directions but it seems unlikely Trump would cede two hours of primetime television to his opponents on Fox News, the debate media partner.
As it stands today, Trump’s still the one to beat and DeSantis is still searching for traction.
