The battle isn’t quite over yet as Democrats face some opposition to their new changes, but another hurdle has been crossed which would boot Iowa from the first position on the primary calendar and replace it with South Carolina.
The 2024 Republican primary will likely remain the same, with Iowa leading off followed by New Hampshire, then likely Nevada and South Carolina.
On the Democratic side, however, the early primary calendar in February of 2024 might end up looking very different:
The Democratic Party on Saturday approved reordering its 2024 presidential primary, replacing Iowa with South Carolina in the leadoff spot as part of a major shake-up meant to empower Black and other minority voters critical to its base of support.
Although more changes are possible later this year, the formal endorsement by the Democratic National Committee during its meeting in Philadelphia is an acknowledgement that the start of the 2024 primary will look very different from the one in 2020. Hundreds of party stalwarts climbed to their feet and cheered after the easy passage by voice vote.
Wait, you ask, what if Joe Biden runs for re-election, does this primary calendar change even matter? That’s a good question and it means Democrats might get one more cycle before they rip off the bandaid and boot Iowa to the curb:
The new plan was championed by President Joe Biden, who is expected to formally announce his reelection campaign in the coming months. The reconfiguring would have South Carolina hold its primary on Feb. 3, followed three days later by New Hampshire and Nevada, which is swapping the caucus it used to hold in favor of a primary.
Georgia would vote fourth on Feb. 13, followed by Michigan on Feb. 27, with much of the rest of the nation set to vote on Super Tuesday in early March.
While South Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire would retain their early status, Georgia and Michigan would join the early club as well. The changes will still face obstacles in some states where laws mandate presidential primaries take place at certain points on the calendar or ahead of other states:
New Hampshire has a state law mandating that it hold the nation’s first presidential primary, which Iowa circumvented since 1972 by holding a caucus. New Hampshire Democrats have joined with top state Republicans in pledging to go forward with the nation’s first presidential primary next year regardless of the DNC calendar.
While the new schedule seems to look good on paper for Democrats, it still faces steep opposition from state lawmakers and might wind up creating a jumbled mess of a process if the various states don’t fall in line under the new plan.
Consider the 2020 Democratic Primary through the lens of this new calendar. Joe Biden was getting trounced early on in Iowa and New Hampshire. He came in fifth in the Granite State, a total embarrassment that had some writing off his campaign for dead. Then came South Carolina, the one saving grace for Biden with a larger black population that helped put him over the top with an endorsement from Congressman James Clyburn.
Reorganizing the calendar to put South Carolina at the beginning is basically a payback to the state that saved Biden’s 2020 candidacy. In that regard, the changes, which are heavily backed by the Biden team, could be construed as a way to ensure the President remains the most likely choice as the 2024 nominee just in case another Democrat was thinking about a serious primary challenge.
It will still take time to iron out all the wrinkles and negotiate with the various states involved.
What’s clear, however, is that the 2024 and/or the 2028 Democratic primary will not look quite the same as prior cycles over the past few decades.
