There’s a difference between a “front runner” for the nomination and the candidate that seems most likely to actually win the nomination.
We’ve seen his dynamic play out many times over previous cycles. Take 2008, for example. Hillary Clinton was the clear front runner yet wound up losing big to the junior Senator from Illinois named Barack Obama.
The 2024 cycle shaping up for Republicans is turning into a fool’s errand for making predictions and rankings according to what’s happening today in politics. The news cycle lasts about twelve seconds nowadays so just wait an hour and everything you thought you knew will be turned upside down.
Nonetheless, writing in the Washington Post, Aaron Blake offers the top 10 Republican presidential candidates for 2024, ranked in ascending order by likelihood to win the nomination:
10. Donald Trump, Jr.
9. Mike Pompeo
8. Rick Scott
7. Nikki Haley
6. Ted Cruz
5. Glenn Youngkin
4. Tim Scott
3. Mike Pence
2. Donald Trump
1. Ron DeSantis
Trump previously held the top spot in a similar ranking list Blake did some months back.
The new list with the Mar-a-Lago raid baked in and some new polling to boot provided enough reason to swap DeSantis from the number two to the number one spot:
There is some indication this development might actually have rallied the GOP to Trump, at least temporarily. The sense of persecution, long fed by Trump, has proved an invaluable political commodity, and he’s got plenty of grist for that mill — whatever the actual legitimacy of his highly speculative claims of political targeting.
But the political impact of the Mar-a-Lago search won’t be measured in the polls conducted in the past couple of weeks. This is a long game. And the legal jeopardy Trump faces could well reinforce some of the reasons DeSantis appears to have gained on him in earlier surveys. Namely: Trump’s uncertain electability and the political baggage he totes along with him.
Those factors endangered Trump’s stranglehold on the party well before the Mar-a-Lago search. Two states likely to hold important early primaries — Michigan and New Hampshire — featured polls showing Trump and DeSantis running neck and neck.
Blake’s reason for the Trump-DeSantis swap is arguably sound but could still go in either direction. The problem for Trump is that it’s early enough that voters could decide maybe it’s best to take the MAGA candidate without Trump’s baggage of ongoing legal battles.
If I had to re-order Blake’s list even today, I would still leave Trump in the top spot and the most likely candidate at this point.
Trump’s demise within the party and within politics has been forecasted dozens of times since his 2015 escalator ride declaring his candidacy at Trump Tower. Each time the media has predicted his political end, Trump has generally emerged stronger or basically unscathed.
In fact, as for the rest of the list, it’s hard to make a case for anyone other than Trump or DeSantis becoming the nominee.
Mike Pence isn’t going to unite the party when half the party thinks he’s a traitor.
Tim Scott and Glenn Youngkin are “feel good” picks that lack fire to fight the culture wars and progressivism infecting the country. Youngkin’s doing good in Virginia but his brand of Republicanism isn’t where the party is nationally right now.
Ted Cruz is probably last year’s conservative. He’s a fighter, yes, and a great senator, but he has some likability problems.
Nikki Haley could be lumped in with Tim Scott and Youngkin. A feel-good pick but isn’t entirely trusted among Trump loyalists.
Rick Scott is a figure worth mentioning especially if Republicans capture the Senate in November. That’s a big if but Scott has been working hard to push the GOP into majority status.
Pompeo and Trump, Jr., are probably not the material for a national party nominee. They’re popular within MAGA ranks but lack appeal outside to the broader electorate.
Check back a year from now and this will all sound crazy when someone not even on the list has captured the GOP and is on his or her way to the nomination.
One particular area that could greatly affect the outcome of the 2024 GOP primary would be the size of the candidate field. Trump benefitted in 2016 from a very large and splintered field giving him the ability to win in some cases with just 25% of the vote.
If the 2024 field is smaller, which it presumably will be, that would create a different atmosphere.
