At the Texas edition of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), held this year in Dallas, former President Donald Trump handily won the straw poll of attendees who were asked to name their preference for the 2024 Republican nomination.
Taking the second-place spot was Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the field basically disappeared from there.
Trump has been the winner of practically every CPAC presidential straw poll for the past several years so these results, while not unexpected, are a barometer of how the GOP base is feeling about the 2024 GOP primary:
DeSantis trails Trump by some 45 points while Ted Cruz is the only other candidate who manages to get over one percent.
As for who would get the nod among CPAC Texas attendees if Trump were to pass on running in 2024, the clear favorite is DeSantis:
You can view the full straw poll results here which included questions on what issues respondents felt were top priorities and other interesting topics. However, it’s the presidential line that gets the most attention.
As CNN notes, Trump’s number of 69% is ten points higher than a similar CPAC poll at the flagship conference held in Orlando earlier this year:
The results are reflective of straw polls at previous CPACs since Trump left office, which showed the former President with a large lead among the conservative activists and DeSantis as the favorite alternative.
In February, Trump won a straw poll at CPAC in Orlando, Florida, with 59% of the vote. DeSantis came in second in that poll with 28% of the vote, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo came in a distant third with 2% of the vote.
In a July 2021 CPAC straw poll, Trump topped the GOP field with support from 70% of conference attendees, compared to 21% who selected DeSantis last year.
It’s been a Trump-DeSantis party for the past few years and that dynamic will only prove to become more of a battle heading into 2024. There’s speculation that DeSantis is running whether Trump decides to or not, but there’s also a compelling case that if Trump runs, DeSantis might wait another four years to avoid upsetting the apple cart.
There’s an argument to be made for either scenario but most signs from DeSantis suggest he’s running in 2024 as a lock no matter what Trump decides.
On Trump’s part, he recently stated that it’s more a question of “when” he announces rather than “if” he announces. Announcing before the midterms becomes less and less likely with each passing day.
A Trump announcement shortly after the midterms seems the more likely scenario.
If you missed the CPAC Texas event from the past three days, videos from each day are available here including Trump’s speech: Day 1, Day 2, Day 3 (Trump’s speech)
