This was originally going to be a post solely about Dr. Oz struggling in the Pennsylvania Senate race but it looks like J.D. Vance in Ohio isn’t doing much better for the time being. Both candidates are Trump-endorsed and wound up winning very tight Republican primaries, though Vance had an easier win than Oz.
Dr. Oz Down 11-Points to John Fetterman
The PA race was always going to be an uphill battle for any Republican but new polling shows Dr. Oz trailing John Fetterman, his Democratic opponent, anywhere from 10 to 11 points. As far as the race goes, Oz has left quite a bit to be desired in terms of pivoting to an effective general election campaign.
At the moment, Oz is struggling to lockdown GOP support in a state where he’ll need 100% and then some to overcome the blue-leaning electorate:
Democrats hold the advantage in battleground Pennsylvania, as GOP candidates haven’t closed the sale with Republican voters.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat John Fetterman holds an 11-point lead over Republican Mehmet Oz, 47%-36%, in a Fox News poll released Thursday. Three percent back independent candidate Everett Stern and 13% support someone else or are undecided.
The candidates are vying for the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.
A big problem for Oz is consolidating GOP support. By a 16-point margin, fewer Republicans stay loyal to him (73%) than Democrats to Fetterman (89%). Same story on favorable ratings, as many more Democrats view Fetterman positively (88%) than Republicans view Oz (67%).
Oz has a problem in that he doesn’t have solid backing from Republicans. Many are skeptical of him for good reason as he’s held a lot of liberal positions over the years on things like guns, same-sex marriage, and transgender policies.
On the other end, he’s also being stuck with the carpetbagger label which hurts him among voters overall who just don’t think he’s very in touch with the Keystone State. The good news is that Fetterman is very progressive and probably more out of the mainstream with the average PA voter than Oz would be.
Vance Trails Moderate Dem Tim Ryan
In Ohio, the dynamics are a little different than in neighboring Pennsylvania.
J.D. Vance came in and swept up the primary vote with help from Donald Trump and some big-money backers. His Democratic challenger, Tim Ryan, is almost running as a pro-Trump candidate dealing exclusively with kitchen-table issues focused on the economy and staying far away from Biden.
Recent polling shows it’s Ryan, not Vance, connecting with Ohioans on the major issues of the day:
Democratic Representative Tim Ryan holds a wide lead over Republican candidate J.D. Vance in the Ohio race for U.S. Senate, according to a new outlier poll conducted late last week.
The online survey, conducted by Center Street PAC, found Ryan ahead of Vance with 43 percent support to the Republican’s 34 percent support as of July 3, while 23 percent were undecided in what may be a crucial contest for control of the Senate. Other recent polls have shown a much closer race and one put Vance ahead.
With 23% in that poll still undecided, there’s still time for Vance to get back in the race and remind voters why Tim Ryan is a vote for Biden’s failed policies. It’s also notable that Ryan has been a well-known Congressman from Ohio for many years and Vance is a newcomer so the name recognition challenge is real.
Vance has been criticized as of late from within GOP ranks for not focusing enough on core campaigning and spending as much time as possible in the state.
For example, a recent Daily Beast article about the “freakout” over Vance’s campaign explains how GOP operatives are seeing a great opportunity going up in smoke if things don’t turn around:
A GOP source in state politics said it’s a “widespread trend” that Republicans officials are hearing in their networks about Ryan’s crossover appeal. “People who are Republicans are saying, ‘that Tim Ryan guy, he’s alright, I like the way he sounds,’” the GOP source said.
That’s why Vance’s mid-campaign venture to Israel especially rankled some Republicans. “Tim Ryan is talking about kitchen-table issues, and J.D. Vance is out there going to f—ing CPAC in Israel,” said a veteran strategist with deep ties to the state. “Republicans are like, ‘Are you out of your f—ing mind?’ This isn’t some f—ing book tour, dude.”
Cunningham, the Cincinnati talk radio host, said he has been speaking regularly with Vance. He shared with The Daily Beast his advice to the candidate: “I told J.D., ‘This race is yours to lose, and at this point, you’re losing it.’ Your staff won’t tell you, but I just did.”
The 2022 cycle is shaping up to be a good year for Republicans but not an overly great year, yet. As with 2010, when the environment seems like a “can’t lose” situation for one side or the other, primary voters are sometimes willing to gamble or throw caution aside and pick candidates that are risky for the general election. Think Christine O’Donnell in Delaware. She’s not a witch, by the way, which is something you should never be stuck explaining.
The good news for Vance and Oz is that it’s not quite August yet and voters typically don’t start paying attention until September. Vance is probably in a better position than Oz but Tim Ryan is an especially strong opponent in that he’s been running a good campaign and has worked to distance himself from the progressive woke ideology that has infected the Democratic Party.
Oz seems like a different challenge altogether as his political novice is showing through more than Vance.
The environment for Democrats is bad, but it’s bad on a broad level where, overall, a generic Republican would do better than a generic Democrat. In this case, Dr. Oz has replaced the generic Republican option and now PA voters aren’t sold yet to join his cause.
