The nail-biter in Pennsylvania on Tuesday night lived up to the hype, but the last-minute surge for upstart candidate Kathy Barnette never materialized past a ceiling of around 24%.
The race still came down to a battle between one of television’s favorite daytime hosts, Dr. Oz, and former hedge fund manager David McCormick. Both candidates have embraced Trump’s policies, though only Oz managed to score the former President’s endorsement.
As of Wednesday morning, the race ended last night looking like this, with just some 2,500 votes separating the top two:
Barnette hit a ceiling, likely due to the barrage of questions against her electability from both Oz and McCormick, and personalities like Sean Hannity on Fox News, an ardent Oz supporter. Trump also got in on the act questioning Barnette’s ability to win a statewide race in November.
The real question is where Barnette’s votes came from. Had she stayed further behind in the pack, and capped out around ten to fifteen percent, it’s possible Oz may have won the night without much trouble.
Given the closeness of the race, Pennsylvania’s election law will now take over and require a recount unless the second-place finisher chooses to waive it and concede:
Recounts are required by Pennsylvania law, which requires the secretary of state to order a recount by 5 p.m. the second Thursday after the election.
That would be Thursday of next week, or May 26.
The recount must be scheduled to be held by the third Wednesday following election day, which in this case would be June 1.
The recount would need to be complete by noon of the following Tuesday, or June 7.
Counties have to submit recount results to the Department of State by noon the next day, or June 8, and the secretary then publishes the results.
It could be weeks before either candidate could declare victory unless the mail-in votes, which will be counted today, create a margin larger than 0.5%.
It’s also possible that the second-place finisher declines a recount, which would avert the process as well. That outcome may depend on the size of the difference. A margin of 0.2% seems more surmountable than a true 0.5%.
For the moment, Oz is sitting in the lead, but McCormick’s campaign is relying on the rest of the mail-in vote counted on Wednesday to push him over the line, but some observers say Oz is still in the driver’s seat:
https://twitter.com/apexplained/status/1526802418708668416
Then again, ask someone else and the outcome could be in McCormick’s favor:
So far, about 118K mail-in/absentee ballots have been counted in the PASEN GOP primary.
McCormick has won 32.2% of those votes. Oz has won 22.9%.
Oz's lead is 2600 votes.
There should be enough mail-in votes left for McCormick to win **IF** he keeps those margins. Big if.
— Yesh Ginsburg (@yesh222) May 18, 2022
We should have a better idea sometime today if the race will be headed for a recount, or if the second-place candidate decides that it’s not worth it. If the race remains tight, within a few thousand votes, it would seem likely that a recount will happen.
As always, never a dull moment in politics when Trump is involved.
