I know, it’s early, why are we talking about the 2020 Presidential Election? Well, the candidates have already started maneuvering and prepping, so we need to keep track of them. CNN just released the numbers from their first Democratic Primary poll of the 2020 cycle and former Vice President Joe Biden still remains on top of the field at this point.
Here are the numbers from CNN:
Biden 33%
Sanders 13%
Harris 9%
Warren 8%
Booker 5%
Kerry 5%
Bloomberg 4%
O’Rourke 4%
Holder 3%
Garcetti 2%
Avenatti 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Patrick 1%
Bullock below 1%
Delaney below 1%
You might scoff thinking these numbers don’t matter, but if you look at the 2016 cycle, it was Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump who were both leading these early polls, and they both ended up winning their respective party’s nomination. Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight, made the connection in a tongue-in-cheek sort of way:
Hard to take these early polls seriously after they predicted that Hillary Clinton (!) and Donald Trump (!!) would be the party nominees in 2016. https://t.co/YFiZE9W8uB
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 14, 2018
As Vox reports on the results, Biden and Sanders have kept a high profile which seems to indicate they’re inclined to run in 2020:
Both Biden and Sanders are keeping their visibility high, including over the weekend. But they’re keeping the message on 2018.
Biden appeared at a rally for Sen. Joe Donnelly in Indiana on Friday, who is up for reelection in November. “This election is bigger than politics. This is the most important election you’ve voted in,” Biden said. “Our basic American values are under assault.”
Sanders appeared on multiple political shows on Sunday, including ABC’s This Week, where host George Stephanopoulos asked him what his closing message is for the midterms.
“We have to end one party rule in Washington,” Sanders said. “Right now you have a president, you have leadership in the House and the Senate working overtime to the needs of the wealthiest people in this country, turning their backs on working families.”
It could also be his opening message in 2020.
As we reported back in April, Biden remains the best-positioned to run given his high name recognition and national profile. He holds experience in the second-highest office in the country and he can easily put together a strong national campaign given his status.
The question will be whether Biden is holding the spot due to his name alone, or if Democrats really think he has what it takes to challenge President Trump. These early polls often give a disproportionate advantage to better-known politicians, but it doesn’t mean the other names on that list can’t break out and start gaining more support as we get into 2019 and the 2020 election becomes front and center.
For now, though, it’s Biden on top, and he’ll probably be there for a while until other candidates get more serious about making a run after the 2018 midterm elections conclude.
