The polls have been swinging wildly this year. That’s why Nate Silver, at FiveThirtyEight, developed an average of polls, and a “polls-plus” number, which adds certain other details, such as historical norms. The Washington Examiner notes that just one month ago, Trump had as little as 3% chance of becoming president, based on the numbers.

Newsmax now reports that Trump’s chances of winning are at a high for the year—44%. That’s still less than 50-50, but if that rate of improvement were to continue, he could win in a historic landslide.

Noted statistician Nate Silver gives Donald Trump a 44 percent chance of winning the election. Silver, founder of, has Trump losing the election by a hair, using his Polls-Plus Forecast that takes into account polls plus historical data and the economy.

The results of Silver’s model:
Clinton: 55.9 percent chance of winning; Trump 44 percent;
Clinton: 46.5 percent of the popular vote; Trump 45.1 percent;
Clinton: 278 electoral votes to Trump’s 259.5.

Silver has Trump winning the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Nevada. Silver has Clinton taking Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin and New Hampshire.

Trump’s rise has put many Hillary supporters in a panic. In fact, some are already writing “pre-post-mortems,” according to Breitbart.

The Huffington Post is no longer buying the idea that Hillary Clinton will coast to victory in November — and it has already made a list of “where Democrats will point the finger if she loses” to Donald Trump.

And it’s not from volunteer contributors; the byline includes Global Editorial Director Howard Fineman and editors Jason Linkins and Lauren Weber.

If Donald Trump [wins], no one who lost the battle will want to admit it was Hillary Clinton’s fault. It will have had nothing to do with, say, “transparency” or calling bearded villagers “deplorables” or the Iraq War vote or the simple fact that middle-of-the-road Clintonism ran out of gas as a public philosophy.

The last paragraph was Breitbart quoting a Huffington Post article, which lists why “she lost.”

1. The Media
2. The Russians
3. Millennials
4. Bernie Sanders
5. Bill Clinton
6. Sexists
7. Obama People
8. James Comey
9. Debbie Wasserman Schultz

The above reports are based on statistics from FiveThirtyEight.

Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the White House are still near an all-time low in the FiveThirtyEight forecasts. . . In only three of the 16 polls has the race shifted in Clinton’s direction. It’s moved toward Trump in 10. Indeed, the average poll has moved 2.8 percentage points toward Trump.

. . . there’s also solid evidence that Clinton is still in decline. The Maine People’s Resource Center survey was Clinton’s worst of any telephone poll in the state this entire cycle, and she has lost ground in North Carolina since the end of August, according to Public Policy Polling. Clinton was also well down in the Fox News surveys of Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio released late Wednesday, though we don’t have previous Fox News polls from those states to compare these results to. . .

Clinton is in worse shape in the Ipsos tracking poll and the Rasmussen Reports weekly survey, and the Google Consumer Surveys and YouGov polls show her steady.

The Washington Examiner puts it in stark relief.

The latest vote projection from elections guru Nate Silver has Republican Donald Trump just six electoral votes short of winning and one point away from equaling Hillary Clinton’s popular vote.

The newest Five Thirty Eight survey Trump at 264 and Clinton at 272, two more than needed. It’s the closest in recent weeks.


What’s more, he has the popular vote within the margin of victory, Clinton 45.4 percent to Trump’s 44.3 percent.


Fox News reports that a Fox News poll puts Trump ahead in three key states.

Trump is helped by strong support from working-class white voters, while Clinton is hurt by a lackluster performance among younger voters and women.

Independents back Trump (42 percent) over Clinton (23 percent) and Johnson (21 percent). The Democrat is trailing expectations among women and younger voters.


Those under age 45 are almost equally likely to back Clinton (42 percent) as they are to back Trump (39 percent) — and Johnson garners double-digit support (11 percent). Women in Nevada backed Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a 16-point margin in 2012, according to the Fox News Exit Poll. Clinton’s up by just six points.

Whites back Trump by a 31-point margin (58-27 percent), while blacks support Clinton by 82 points (85-3 percent). Independents favor Trump (41 percent) over Clinton (24 percent) and Johnson (14 percent). And while voters under age 45 prefer Clinton by 46-32, Johnson gets 11 percent of them.


Ninety-five percent of Trump supporters and 90 percent of Clinton backers feel certain of their vote choice.

Trump’s edge over Clinton comes mainly from independents (+20 points) and working-class whites (+26). Clinton’s up by just three points among women. Obama won them by 11 in 2012. Most of Clinton’s (89 percent) and Trump’s supporters (88 percent) are certain they will back their candidate.


“Trump has been much more disciplined in his comments recently and is almost certainly benefiting from keeping his attacks focused on Clinton as opposed to other Republicans or Gold Star families,” says. . . Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News Poll. Meanwhile, Clinton trails Trump by two points among voters living in union households. That voting bloc went for Obama over Romney by 23 points in 2012.

Huffington Post may be premature in it’s post-mortem, but at this point, it appears that all the momentum is with Trump.


  1. While “polls” have some value, the real poll is November 8. I am voting AGAINST Hillary Clinton because I sincerely believe her administration would be a total disaster for this nation. Many are voting for her because she is a female just as many voted for Obama because of his race…..both bad reasons in my opinion. Her real and perceived corruption justifies that she be denied this office and I hope she is.

    • You cite her “real and perceived corruption” yet you don’t back this up with evidence. Of course Trump supporters don’t deal in evidence, a smear is good enough for them.
      Since when is someone denied anything for “perceived corruption”? Would you like to be convicted of a crime based on what “they all” say?

      • Why do people who aren’t voting for her automatically become Trump supporters? I voted for Bernie in the primaries – but I sure as hell won’t be voting for Hillary.

        • Sorry I offended you but the truth of the matter is “Bernie” and Trump are a lot alike and therefore the people who followed him are much like Trump supporters. They are down on Clinton, but can’t give any real reasons. She is a lier, they say but when you ask what she lies about, they don’t know.
          This is not a campaign, this is a movement! That was both Bernie’s claim and Donalds. Donald is not a Republican, oh but wait Bernie is not a Democrat. Look how huge my rallies are! Look how well I am doing in the polls. Bernie or Donald? If the rage fits, wear it proudly.

      • Well if you do not see the corruption surrounding Hillary Clinton, might I suggest you acquaint yourself with her past going back to her days in Arkansas, etc. as for the “perceived” corruption I used that word in the context of the existing corruption associated with her as Secratary of State and the so-called Clinton Foundation. Evidently you just do not care which makes you part of the problem as well.

        • You uses the word “perceived” and contrasted it with the word “real”. You are entitled to your own opinion, but not to your own definitions of words. Real obviously refers to an event that actually happened perceived on the other hand means something that is “seen” to have occured, when ctially it did not.You give no evidence that she has ever been found to have been involved in any corruption. When you used the word perceived to refer to allegations about the Clinton Foundation and her service as Secretary of State You used the proper word, though you obviously don’t realize it. Those allegations are just perceived because there is no proof that any corruption ever took place. Indeed there is much proof that no pay for play ever took place.
          Why don’t you go back to her days in Arkansas and show me something illegal that she actually did. Or during her tenure in the state department, something real and not perceived.
          I wonder if you heard a news story calling her corruption at state department “perceived” and simply did not understand the meaning of the word.

          • You really think she doesn’t lie and try to cover up things? Did she not lie about her emails? Did she not lie about her health? Did she not lie about being “bought” by SUPER PACs? Even Obama himself called her out on her BS. See for yourself..


            • She did not, in fact lie about her emails. She was thoroughly investigated by the FBI, and Comet declared that she did not lie.
              She did not lie about her health, her doctor released information showing her health to be very good. She did not disclose a bout of pneumonia in the face of a double standard that says that a woman is not as strong as a man.
              She has not been ” bought” by super pacs, she is being supported by groups who see her as the best candidate, much as Trump is supported by his own groups.
              As for Obama’s statements, that is a stump speech in what Obama himself I’ll tell you was a very close primary. Even so after Obama won that race Clinton was big enough to forgive extreme statements made in the heat of competition and throw her support to Obama. He, in turn, showed his real opinion of her by offfering her he Secretary of State position.

            • Yea until he retracted that and claimed that she did hide emails. That there was covering up, you can’t honestly tell me that she was 100% honest in dealing with the email scandal. FBI found 30 phones destroyed! She might not have physically destroyed or covered up this on her own, but her people certainly did so she can claim she wasn’t involved. How about this, tell me some good things about her? What is she going to do to benefit our country? All I have seen from her are ad’s that attack and bash Trump. Nothing about her message.
              What makes you think she hasn’t been bought by super pacs? Do you really think all those millions of dollars come for free? Please..

            • She easily could have paid off the doctors. Your intense effort to defend her, make her sound as if she has done nothing wrong, isn’t bought, is just pure blindness. Sounds like you drank some serious koolaid. All hail Clinton! She’s the best human being on the planet! Obama wouldn’t have said that if some of it weren’t true. Then he’d be a liar, a slanderer right? A close primary is no excuse to make things up. He offered her a position to appease her supporters. He also was most likely strong armed by the unbelievably corrupt DNC!

  2. Seems to me like this article is based an aweful lot on Fox News, Breitbart and the like.
    Fact is the health smear, backed by the anticlimactic fact of I few days sick leave, cost Clinton. But only minimally, her polls started to improve as soon as she got back on the trail, fit as ever.
    Just another case of the double standard. Her health was under such unfair scrutiny that she felt pressured to push through and not show “weakness”. A man would not have been treated this way. During the primaries Sanders had to take a break from the campaign for health reasons. During the two days he was off, his name was not mentioned in the news media. We were not told incessantly that he was off for poor health. Double Standard.

  3. Many different polls showed Trump not having a prayer when the Republican primary started, they were wrong.

    When he was the nominee of the party, he was going to be crushed by Clinton. They were wrong.

    He is gaining momentum and should he do well in the debates, it will be Clinton who is the one that will be crushed in November.

      • You are a hateful, despicable curmudgeon. Did somebody Pee in your oatmeal? If not did somebody steal your cane? If so, I’ll bet it was one of those nasty KLANSMEN!!!

        You are sounding desperate. You realize that Billary’s campaign is in a DEATH SPIRAL. So sad, too bad.?

        Trump for PRESIDENT 2016.?

        • I don’t care for oatmeal, I don’t use a cane, and I don’t hang around klansmem.
          It’s nice to know that you get your debating skills from your fearless leader.
          Are you going to watch Mrs Clinton demolish Trump in next Monday’s debate? If Trump doesn’t chicken out that is.

          • I think we can both agree that if Billary wins by a little, she loses. If Trump holds his own in the debate, she loses. If Trump should win the debate, she may as well PACK IT IN.?

            Can you say PRESIDENT TRUMP??

      • Just as I thought, you don’t have any evidence to back up your claims either. You believe everything that Hannity, Limbaugh and such tell you. You have ” read a lot”. If all you have read is Breitbart, National Review, and Infowars, your education is sadly lacking in facts.
        I am 61 years old, and I have followed politics since I was a teen. I’m not saying my age makes me any wiser, but more than 40 years of closely watching makes me well educated. I don’t really need to read tell all’s about Hillary Clinton because I have been following her since she was first lady.
        How old were you in1992?
        As far as debating on the comment section, what else is it for? You express your opinion, I express mine. That is a debate.
        As far as evidence, there is no evidence of pay for play with the Clinton Foundation, no evidence of wrongdoing in the email ” scandal”. Go clear back to Whitewater, no evidence.
        People say she is a liar, but can’t say what she lies about.
        If there is “a wealth” of evidence proving her wrongdoing in these cases, or any other, bring it on. But make it from a credible source.

        • In this day and age your “age” means nothing other than you are simply out of the loop. Your generations ideals and ways are coming to an end. One would think that the 40 years experience you have had would make you not want another candidate bought by big companies and super pacs, that’s what has gotten us in this mess. Candidates not working for the people. I’m embarrassed for you. Enjoy the rest of your life and let the youth of today take it from here as it affects us and our generation more than yours.

          • I am not now, nor have I ever been “out of the loop”. My generation may be aging but if my generations ideals are out of date then we are really in trouble. That you can say that you are embarrassed for me shows how arrogant, and how clueless you actually are. If you count Donald Trump, or Bernie Sanders as “candidates working for the people”, then I am embarrassed for you, for that shows how gnorant and out of the loop you are. I mention Sanders here because you have the earmarks of a confirmed “Bernie bot”.
            As far as he youth of today, they are far more interested in free handouts and legalizing marijuana, than in jobs and a functioning economy.
            Take your condescension and put it where the sun don’t shine. Maybe one day you will grow up and develop some manners and some intelligence.

            • Says the person implying a wish for someone to have a stroke. When your not in the loop it’s hard to realize that you aren’t. I’m not a Bernie bot. In fact I despise most of his policies and socialism crap. Your quite the sassy one aren’t you? The youth of today wanting handouts is painfully a bunch of BS and I don’t believe they are entitled to anything other than what they earn from working and contributing to society. I am absolutely against handouts. I have a great job, make great money and I hate that my paychecks are bludgeoned by taxes that help give people free money and stuff. I could care less about them. If they can’t find their way why should it be my problem. So because your are older and “wiser” you ask me to developed some manners yet you yourself imply and wish someone has a stroke and say nasty things about others in this discussion? Your “age” allows that? Your age means I should show manners to a nasty condensending 61 year old? The end of your generations ideals is progress. Just like from your parents generation to yours things change over time. We evolve while the previous generation might be shocked at how it’s going doesn’t mean that it’s a bad thing. The morals you were taught are different now. If you don’t want me to be condensending then wouldn’t it be wiser for you to lead by example and not be condensending yourself? Right back at you..

            • You are still condesending mannerisms nd clueless. My generation is aging, and will pass. Morals are absolute and do not change over time. You still have the guts to talk down to everyone else and make fun of their views, but have it developed the guts to say who you support.
              It is clear that you resent the taxes you pay, but I bet you are not ashamed to p partake of the benefits those taxes pay for. If you are not a Bernie bot, you must be a Trump supporter, but one without the guts to claim him. As I said before I support Clinton as the best candidate, and I am proud to say so. I am embarrassed for you that you don’t have the nerve to even say who you support.

            • Actually I did claim I support him. Look at your comment where you say I don’t have the “guys” to say who I support. Do I like him 100% absolutely not. But as I said before I believe him to be the lesser of two evils just as you stated you believe Hilary to be the lesser of two evils. Stop saying I haven’t claimed who I support

            • Sorry to offend, I missed your pledge of support for Trump. If you are cynical enough to be satisfied voting or the lesser of two evils, I feel sorry for you. If I feel that both choices are evil, I refuse to vote for that office. I will not vote for a candidate I do not support. As I have said many times I support Clinton as the most qualified candidate to run for office in my lifetime. If you are content to vote that way, I am sorry for you. But you will have to face the fact that you are voting for one of the most dishonest people, both As a candidate and a businessman ever to run for office. If you to discuss his scandles, bring it on! But be prepared to back your views, hi can and will back up mine.
              As you have probably experienced yourself, guys instead of guys is for some reason the fault of the spell checker. If that is my worst fault, oh well.

            • Do you drive on roads and bridges? Do you drink clean water? Do you live in a free country, protected by military services? Were you or your children educated in public schools ?I could go on, but you get the idea.

            • Those taxes I’m not complaining about. However I do believe they are abused and don’t really go to everything they claim it’s for. Property taxes on top of income taxes are the ones that pay for that stuff anyways. I’m talking about the ones where they take from my hard work and wages to pay for medi-cal/care, FICA, etc. you know the ones that pay for other less fortunate souls to keep on livin. Of which many of them abuse it and use it for drugs etc.

            • Are you one of those who believe that you will always be able to take care of yourself, no matter what? Do you believe that there are masses out there who collect Social security disability by choice, and sit around getting high on your dime?
              Let me tell you a story. I got my first job at 14. I got my first factory job at 17, lying about my age. I was married at seventeen, had our first child a year later. Have supported a family ever since. I was forced by business closings over the years to start over several times. Most of the time using any savings to get by until I could get work again. Through my 30s and 40s I had a good job that I worked 6 days most weeks, 7 days some. Then one day that started out the same as several others I was the victim of an industrial accident, through no fault of my own. That was the last day I ever worked. After about 16 surgeries, inpatient therapy, home therapy, and outpatient therapy, I can walk limited distances, with crutches. I now depend on SSD, and medicare, which I did pay for all my working life, and he only “drugs” I use are prescribed by a doctor. And by the way, all my savings, my 401k, kept my wife and me in a home until I could get through the mad house that is qualifying for disability.
              Don’t get too down on folks like me, because it could just as easily be you.

            • You are going to have to do better than that. In the middle of a speech she gets her words tangled and mis speaks. You can look at her published policies, or at any other speech she has given to see what her real proposals are. She has said over and over that she wants the richest people to pay their fair share, while easing the burden on the middle and lower wage earners.
              This is in stark contrast to Trump, who not only tells one lie for every three and one half minutes of speech, but who wants to give huge tax breaks to corporations and the rich. He does nothing for middle and lower wage people. He thinks that the current minimum wage is too high.

            • Im 19 years old and yes i support the legalization of marijuana, but not for the reasons of personal use. Do you know how many jobs it will create when it is legalized? what about the taxes that can be imposed and create funds for the country to use? Another thing that is overlooked a out its legalization is the fact that it would help prison overcrowding. Marijuana’s legalization would help this country in many ways, so just because your 61 years old and “well-educated” does not make your own “well-educated” opinions correct

            • Look at the state’s where marijuana has been legalised. It has not stopped the black market for marijuana, so it has not eliminated crimes associated with its use. More young people are using it, and at earlier ages. Employers still test for marijuana use and can chose not to hire, or can fire employees who test positive.
              The tax arguement does persuade a lot of people, but you have yo ask yourself, is it worth the cost to the lives of the citizens?

      • His problem is that like so many “useful idiots” employed by Clinton and the Democrat machine, he has been programmed to follow the “party line” all the way to oblivion.

      • The point is, most of the stuff on the Internet is crap. “I read that the moon is made of green cheese!” Oh, wow, then it must be true!!

        If you make a claim, you’re expected to give us proof. If you provide the link and that source is bogus, we’ll know you are, too.

      • You’re worse than the people you claim support trump. Your hate, anger and name calling only makes you look more of a bigot and a jerk than the people you attempt to insult. If Hillary supporters are like you (many are) then we are doomed as a country. You get upset and bothered by “racist” trump supporters but you display the same hate if not worse than them.

        • Call me all the names you like, at least I am not afraid to say who I support. I don’t just post bogus links and attack people.

          • What name did I call you? Please elaborate.. good for you on supporting Hillary. I’m angry with you for what you said to someone about how you”hope it doesn’t cause a stroke” which is sarcastic for you saying you do hope it does. Come on now. Don’t deny it.

            • That’s odd, how about all those leading Republicans that are supporting Hillary but not Trump. How about all those Republicans that are calling Trump racist, bigot, scam artist, liar, etc, and they weren’t even running against him in the primaries. If you can’t even get the party leaders to standup for Trump, it’s says a lot about the person.

              Obama is supporting Hillary, Bernie Sanders is supporting Hillary. No living US President is supporting or has plans to vote for Trump. The people who used to hold the office would know what sort of temperament and courage it takes to be the President of the USA. If none of them believe that Trump has what it takes but they believe that Hillary does, it says more than anything you can spout.

              Trump is an oath breaker, he’s broken his oath about marriage and cheated on his then wife Ivana with Marla, tsk, tsk. Hillary stood by Bill when he fooled around, Trump bails on his wives when it suits him best and can’t even live up to his oath of marriage and yet some people want him to take the oath of office…hah.

      • Wishing harm to another is evil. You are seriously out of line. I respect your opinion but when you wish harm to others who don’t share your same opinion, what does that make you? A disgrace to human society.

  4. I say the same thing about the Republicans. This is who they picked out of all those qualified candidates? I keep thinking it’s a nightmare that Trump is the nominee. Hard to believe a failed business man who had actually more than four bankruptsies, screwed small businesses owners out of money, thinks women who have an abortion should be jailed, won’t release his tax returns, lies daily, makes fun of the disabled, denies John McCain he is a war hero because he was captured, judges women by how attractive they are and refers to them as fat, pig, dog, slob, praises Putin, insults a Gold Star Mother, mocks a US born judge with Mexican heritage??? This is the person that could possibly be our next president? Please tell me this is a bad dream!

    • Bad dream? Perhaps. That would make Hillary Clinton a nightmare! I am no Trump stalwart, but there is no way in the lower regions of Lucifer’s kingdom I will vote for Clinton. Stein is a misguided ideologue and it appears Johnson cannot even hold 10 % in these so-called polls. But for me to vote for Clinton would be tantamount to committing treason against my country. As for Trump, I see him as the manisfestation of political and social frustration in our society caused by Obama, Clinton and their cadre of what I consider to be political criminals.

      • Yes, more like a nightmare than a bad dream. I am an Independent and I am not a strong Hillary support either by no means. I think she is a liar but Trump is exactly the same. Will say anything to get elected but I notice the media has gone soft on the Donald lately so we can thank them if President Donald if my nightmare should come true. I was a Bernie supporter but after what I have witnessed on the campaign trail and Donalds’ speeches, he would be a freaking disaster as president and is why I will have to vote for Hillary. Donald may be more clueless than George W. if that is possible. Very scary indeed!!! I happen to love Obama and think he did a damn good job as president given the obstruction on the Right who’s main priority was to make sure Obama was a one term president. That didn’t work out very well and karma bit those guys in the butt! I will hold my nose and vote for HIllary even though I am not very happy about it. Voting third party is a vote for the Donald and I refuse to contribute any help to that guy.

        • ” I was a Bernie supporter” that pretty much explains your incoherent post. Oh, you “love Obama” you are more insane than i thought, we are NOT supposed to “love” politicians, that’s just sick. Trumps has had some business failures, most investors do, but he has had quite a few successful ones as well. Tax returns? Only HRC lovers like you want to see those and it certainly wont change your feeble mind so guess what, you are NEVER going to see them, they are locked up with HRC’s paid speeches text. “Lies daily” we all know that’s HRC, she’s can’t speak without lying, its a Clinton family trait. He teased one retarded reported, get over it, political correctness is dead Joann, you just don’t realize it yet. Rosie O’Donnell IS a pig, facts hurt, so sorry. You want a leader that criticizes other world leaders BEFORE they negotiate with them? That’s just stupid. I suppose you support HRC’s failed Russian “restart” program. Gold Star parents should be able to take the heat if they are going to use there dead son as a political tool, they can’t have it both ways. The Mexican judge, really, seriously Joann, no one but you cares about that.

          And you are clearly out of your mind if you think the media has gone soft on Trump. Look at ANY leading news site, there are 10 to 1 articles about Trump and they are NEVER nice. Joann, you are indeed a “Toole”…. And honestly honey, you sound unhinged, “Scary”, “if my nightmare should come true” “bad dream”, your hands must be cramping up from how tightly you are clutching your pearls.

  5. Frankly, what we need is a candidate with the character of Washington and that candidate is apparently nowhere to be found.

    • Trump is the lesser of two evils in my opinion. At least he isn’t owned by corporate america and big super pacs! That is what makes all politicians scum! Promise promise promises to get votes. Win, then call await corporate directions. We need someone not bought by corporations someone that will actually be able to vote down things that hurt the people without fearing loss of funding and perks.

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