In the latest Monmouth University poll of Democratic primary voters, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire by 53 percent to 39 percent. In the same poll in November, Clinton was leading by three points at 48 percent to 45 percent. This marks a new high for Sanders in New Hampshire as the race gears up toward the primary on February 9.
Report from The Weekly Standard:
A new poll of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire finds Vermont senator Bernie Sanders with a 14-point lead over Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of state. Sanders, a self-proclaimed socialist, has 53 percent support according to the new poll from Monmouth University. Clinton, meanwhile, has just 39 percent support.
That’s a big shift from Monmouth’s November poll, which found Clinton had 48 percent to Sanders’s 45 percent. And as the February 10 primary approaches, more Democrats than ever before—52 percent—say they are “completely decided” on who they will support. That’s more the case with Sanders supporters than Clinton ones. Sanders and Clinton also have a nearly equal percentage of Democrats who say they could support them—20 percent for Sanders, 21 percent for Clinton.
According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls for New Hampshire, Sanders has a more modest 4.3-point lead over Clinton, though that average does not include the new Monmouth poll. In Iowa, things are slightly better for Clinton ahead of the February 1 caucus—she’s got a 5.8 lead over Sanders. But the trend is in the wrong direction for the former First Lady, with Sanders appearing to gain on Clinton in recent polls.
Fourteen points in New Hampshire is a serious number, well outside the margin of error. I’m sure it’s a little high, but even if Sanders is realistically at six or eight points ahead, it’s not insignificant. Right now, Sanders’ lead is contained to New Hampshire with Iowa looking a bit more fluid each day. Beyond New Hampshire, and into South Carolina, Sanders has a far worse polling picture which shows Clinton with a huge lead.
However, if Sanders were to win Iowa or New Hampshire, or both, would that provide a shift change to make a real primary battle into March on the Democratic side? I’m sure the Clinton campaign is preparing for each scenario.
Bundle this new poll with MoveOn.org deciding to endorse Sanders over Clinton, and it’s clear the Democratic Party is much more fractured over a preferred nominee than the media is portraying.