With poll after poll out showing Donald Trump continuing to surge, even in places such as Florida where he currently leads Jeb Bush by 6 points, the question of staying power is coming to the forefront. Some insiders believe he has peaked too soon, while others believe he has yet to hit a ceiling of support.

Report from Politico:

About three quarters of Republican early-state insiders say they believe Donald Trump has peaked — but many acknowledge that may also be wishful thinking.

That’s the assessment from this week’s POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top operatives, strategists and activists in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The controversial real estate mogul and GOP presidential candidate provoked some caucus insiders into offering expletives and other colorful language when asked whether Trump has hit his ceiling.

“The McCain smear and giving out Graham’s cellphone? What an asshole,” vented a New Hampshire Republican, who says Trump has peaked. “Trumpism does not represent some deeper sentiment within the party, nor has he tapped into something a more conventional candidate can now co-opt. His candidacy has as much substance and meaning as cotton candy. I didn’t like him before. Now I loathe him.”

Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump speaks after arriving at the airport for a visit to the U.S. Mexico border in Laredo, Texas, Thursday, July 23, 2015. Trump is touring the border area to highlight his concerns about immigration policies.

An Iowa Republican said, “yes,” when asked whether Trump has hit his zenith, but clarified, “I’d like to think so. But who the hell really knows anymore?” [Emphasis added]

The insiders weighed in following another week in which Trump dominated political coverage.

They’re saying about 75% of GOP insiders think he peaked, but I’m wondering if they actually think he peaked, or whether they simply hope he peaked. I think the first debate on August 6 will begin to tell us whether Trump is able to continue growing support or whether he’ll be knocked backed down to earth amid a large field of qualified candidates when they’re all standing side by side.


  1. Naw. Wishful thinking. Trump is a showman. People love guys like Truman, Perot, and Jesse Ventura. Shoot from the hip, make that soundbite.

    I think Trump will even gain through the debate. Others will try to be “political,” he doesn’t give a crap. He keeps going bankrupt and gambles some more.

    My guess is that he’ll keep shooting off his mouth, and at some point, for no apparent reason, people will get sick of him, and he’ll drop like a rock. But that’s weeks, maybe months away.

    • I think what will hurt him the most will be when he is forced to get specific on his views.

      He says deport all illegal immigrants and let the “good ones” come back in. OK, how do you accomplish that? Will it take 5 years, ten years? How much does it cost?

      He wants Obamacare repealed and the government to subsidize care for the needy. OK, that’s called Medicaid and it’s busting state budgets already, how is your proposal different than the current system?

      When he has to get specific, he won’t sound as attractive, in my opinion, to conservatives who are supporting him right now.

      • Conservatives like him because he is Not a Politician and he tells the truth. He is a man of action Not Lip Service like so many politicians. Donald got where he is in life because of action not lip service. He has already set up a Hotline for Veterans to call with their problems they are having with the VA, benefit entitlements, etc. And he did this on his own ! https://www.facebook.com/groups/DonaldTrumpCampaign/g

        • Ever since JFK, the “actor” who can “make love to the camera” has been the winner. Nobody did it better than Reagan. While “wooden” characters, like McCain, Kerry, Gore, Dole, Bush41, Dukakis, Mondale, and Ford were losers. Niixon is an anomaly (in so many ways). Stevenson and Dewey were also snooty losers.

          SO–I think we’ll all be surprised by how well Trump does.

          He has lots of experience in front of a camera, and it will show. He’ll shoot from the hip, and viewers will absolutely LOVE him. And when other candidates do really stupid things, to try to compete–like wrecking a smart phone–they will look as stupid as they sound.

          • I mostly agree with your analysis, but I think you’re missing one key piece–likability.
            Reagan, Clinton, W, Obama, JFK, Carter were all viewed as likable by a huge portion of the population. Trump, while undeniably entertaining, is in a dead heat with Dick Cheney for likability.

            • Well, that brings up another historical comparison. Throughout the years, the U.S. has backed foreign leaders who trashed our values, but obeyed us.

              As FDR is reported to have said about Nicaraguan dictator, Anastazio Somoza, “he might be a bastard, but he’s OUR bastard.”

              And there’s your answer. Most Americans would vote for a psychopath, if they think he would be a tough guy FOR us.

            • You may be right for the primaries, but I have trouble seeing that as a route to the White House in the absence of a strong national consensus on what constitutes “us” and what “them”

  2. It is very early yet to even think about Trump peaking out.Many people are waiting for the debates, and I feel confidant that Trump will do very well in them, You know they will save all the good stuff for the debates after the primary election, so don’t expect a lot of precise info right now, that is how it works folks. Trump has not peaked yet, and will continue to rise. https://www.facebook.com/groups/DonaldTrumpCampaign/

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