All the models have aligned to show a near certainty for Republican control of the US Senate. The question will be how large of a majority will the GOP have when the next Congress convenes in January.

Toss-up Senate races: (RCP)
New Hampshire, Iowa, Kansas, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana

Toss-up Governor races: (RCP)
Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Colorado, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland

Note the numerous races in the liberal stronghold of the Northeast which are still too close to call.

Courtesy of PBS, we’ll carry their live election night feed below which starts at 6:00 p.m. EST.

Please sound off in the comments with your predictions and thoughts. You can also tweet me during the night @PresElectNews

7 COMMENTS

  1. Surfisher guarantees the GOP 55 senate seats. Nate Silver gives the GOP a 72% chance of taking the senate, last I heard, but only with 52. And seems that no one seriously thinks Dems could keep the senate.

    Just because I’m a contrarian,
    and no one has said this so far,
    put me down for 50-50.

    • Just read the last thread. Now Surf says 56 GOP senators. And Nate Silver upped the likelihood of a GOP senate to 76.2%

      Maybe we should specify which wins. In order to get to my unlikely 50-50, I’ll give Dems Iowa, Alaska,and Kansas.

    • I’ve never seen people angrier in a midterm election and lining up to vote the enemy out — thus my 56 prediction.

      • Naw. I’ve seen ’em as angry. And the anger was not focused. It was fear of many things, most of which we can’t do anything about. And there was also just an anti-incumbency stand. If the GOP had had more seats at risk, it coulda gone the other way.

        I didn’t really think it would end up 50-50, but since no one was saying that, I figured I’d take that bet. I’d’a looked like a genius if it had come to pass.

        But I did think there was a chance of it. Here’s why:
        (1) They poll by landline, and only old white people seem to have landlines, anymore. Thus, that might over-count conservatives.
        (2) Dems were boasting of a strong ground game. That sort of thing is not obvious, so that might have made a difference.
        (3) Although I’ve been a registered Republican for many years, I got more annoying robocalls, emails, and junk mail from Dems this year.

        The polls had been saying this all year. And Nate Silver seems to really know how to weigh things, so I assumed he’d be right. But I like seeing people be wrong sometimes.

  2. My terribly safe guess: 54 (R) to 46 (D) when we’re done.

    RCP map of how I think it shakes out: http://goo.gl/qtrh7G

    New Hampshire stays blue but North Carolina turns red. Kay Hagan has a 0.7% lead in poll averages. That’s way too close for an incumbent, I think she goes down losing by half a percent tonight if indys break GOP.

    Though I think 55 seats, maybe even 56 is a reasonable guess given the closeness of those races.

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