The latest CBS News/New York Times poll of registered voters shows Romney leading President Obama by 1 percentage point which is within the margin of error. This poll is notable for a few reasons but perhaps the most telling is that it was taken of registered voters, not likely voters. Registered voter poll models tend to be more generous toward Democrats while polls of likely voters tend to give a slight edge to Republicans. The difference being that even though a voter is registered, it does not mean they will actually make it to the voting booth on election day while a likely voter probably will.
Report from CBS News:
President Obama and Mitt Romney are effectively tied in the race for the presidency, according to a new CBS News/New York Times survey.
Forty-seven percent of registered voters nationwide who lean towards a candidate back Romney, while 46 percent support the president. Four percent are undecided. The one percentage point difference is within the survey’s three point margin of error.
Romney leads by eight points among men; the president leads by five points among women.
The president’s supporters are more likely to strongly back their candidate. Fifty-two percent strongly favor Mr. Obama, while just 29 percent of Romney voters strongly back the presumptive Republican nominee.
More than one in three Romney voters say they are supporting Romney primarily because they dislike Mr. Obama. Only eight percent of Obama supporters say their support for the president is tied to their dislike of Romney.
Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats when it comes to voting in this election, though just one in three registered voters overall are more enthusiastic than they were in the past. Roughly half of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic compared to past elections – up from 36 percent in March – while just 27 percent of Democrats say they same.
Once all the polling firms begin the shift to likely voter poll models, we’ll learn more about where this election might be headed as we get into August.