Michigan now tied while Arizona remains strong for Romney
With just one day to go before Michigan and Arizona head to the polls on Tuesday, it appears that Mitt Romney is making a comeback in Michigan while maintaining a strong lead in Arizona. In recent days, Michigan had been trending hard for Rick Santorum, however, it appears that his momentum is slowing considerably as new polling out today indicates the race may be tied.
Report from the Tucson Citizen on Michigan polls:
New polls show Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are deadlocked in Michigan, on the eve of a pair of key primaries that will boost their claims to the GOP presidential nomination.
Romney has a slight lead in surveys released Sunday by Public Policy Polling and We Ask America in his native state of Michigan, while Santorum is ahead in the poll by Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone.
The former Massachusetts governor is on more solid ground in new polls out of Arizona, which also holds its primary tomorrow. Michigan, with 30 delegates at stake, is the larger prize and a key swing state that will also factor in the general election.
Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich trail the two leaders in both states, according to the latest polls.
Romney leads Santorum, 39% to 37%, among likely GOP primary voters in the PPP survey in Michigan. He’s ahead by about 4 percentage points in the We Ask America survey.
The Mitchell poll, meanwhile, has Santorum leading Romney, 37% to 35%, among likely GOP voters.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, things are looking good for Romney:
Mitt Romney is headed for an overwhelming victory in Arizona’s primary on Tuesday. He’s at 43% to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Newt Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul.
You can make a fair argument that Romney’s already won the Arizona primary. Almost half of those planning to vote have already cast their ballots, and Romney has a 48-25 advantage over Santorum with those folks. That lead makes it nearly impossible for Santorum to make up the difference on election day, and Romney has a 39-27 advantage with those planning to vote on Tuesday anyway.
Michigan could certainly come down to the wire on Tuesday night between Romney and Santorum. The one certainty seems to be coming from Newt Gingrich who predicts he will personally lose both Arizona and Michigan. We could be seeing Ron Paul pick up 3rd place in either contest.
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