If you believe the current polling average, Ken Paxton has a problem.
Democrat James Talarico has led most of the recent surveys in the Texas U.S. Senate race, and the latest RealClearPolling average has him ahead 48.4% to 46.9%. In a state Republicans have not lost statewide in decades, even a small Democratic polling lead is enough to get plenty of attention.
But there is another way to look at the race. Texas polling has missed the final Republican margin before, sometimes by several points, and Paxton does not need a huge polling error to turn a 1.5-point deficit into a win.
The Polls Really Are Better for Talarico
There is no reason to pretend otherwise. Talarico has been ahead in more of the recent public polls than Paxton, and several surveys have put the Democrat at or near 50%.
- Rasmussen Reports: Talarico 45%, Paxton 45%
- Fox News: Talarico 49%, Paxton 49%
- Emerson: Talarico 49%, Paxton 48%
- TPOR: Talarico 51%, Paxton 47%
- InsiderAdvantage: Paxton 49%, Talarico 48%
- CBS News: Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%
That is a real Democratic advantage in the polling, but it is not a uniform one. Two of the newest major polls are tied, another has Talarico ahead by one, and InsiderAdvantage has Paxton ahead by one.
In other words, this is not a race where every survey is showing the same thing. It is a close race in which a small change in turnout, undecided voters or polling error could matter.
Texas Senate Polls Have Missed Before
This is where recent Texas history becomes important. In three of the last four U.S. Senate elections in Texas, the Republican candidate ultimately won by a larger margin than the final RealClearPolling average suggested.
- 2024: Ted Cruz led the final polling average by 4.4 points and won by 8.5 points.
- 2020: John Cornyn led the final polling average by 6.5 points and won by 9.8 points.
- 2018: Cruz led the final polling average by 6.8 points but won by only 2.6 points.
- 2014: Cornyn led the final polling average by 21.7 points and won by 27.2 points.
The 2018 result is an important reminder that polling error can go either way. Beto O’Rourke performed substantially better than the polling average suggested that year, so there is no automatic rule saying Texas polls always underestimate Republicans.
But 2024 is difficult to ignore. Cruz spent much of that race looking more vulnerable in the polls than he ultimately was, and his final margin ended up more than four points better than the polling average.
Trump Was Underestimated in Texas Too
The same thing happened at the top of the Texas ballot in 2024. The final RealClearPolling average had Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris by 9 points, while the certified result was Trump 56.1% to Harris 42.5%, a margin of 13.6 points.
That does not mean the same polling error will happen again in a midterm election. Pollsters change their methods between cycles, the electorate changes, and Paxton is a very different candidate from Trump or Cruz.
Still, the comparison shows why a 1- or 2-point Democratic polling advantage in Texas should probably be viewed with some caution rather than as a settled result.
Paxton Has Another Problem That Cruz Did Not
The biggest reason Talarico may be able to break the pattern is Paxton himself. The Republican nominee remains significantly less popular with his own party than Talarico is with Democrats.
An October University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll found 92% of likely Democratic voters viewed Talarico favorably, compared with 69% of likely Republicans who viewed Paxton favorably. Fifteen percent of Republican likely voters viewed Paxton unfavorably.
Yet that same poll found something else that matters. While many Republicans may not particularly like Paxton, 89% of voters who said they backed Trump in 2024 still planned to vote for him.
That is one of the most important numbers in the race. Paxton does not necessarily need Republican voters to love him. He needs enough of them to come home when they actually cast a ballot.
There Is No Proof of a “Shy Paxton Voter”
It is tempting to argue that some voters simply do not want to admit to pollsters that they plan to support Paxton, particularly given his long list of controversies and weaker personal favorability. There is no solid evidence showing a specific hidden bloc of embarrassed Paxton voters, however, so that theory should be treated as speculation.
There is broader evidence that polling can struggle with who responds and who ultimately votes. The American Association for Public Opinion Research found that pre-election surveys in 2024 were considerably more accurate than in 2016 or 2020, but they still underestimated Republican support relative to Democrats for the third consecutive presidential cycle.
AAPOR found that polls across offices overstated Democratic margins by an average of 2.7 points in 2024. That does not tell us what will happen in Texas in 2026, but a polling error of that size would obviously matter in a race where Talarico currently leads the average by only about 1.5 points.
The Texas Baseline Still Matters
Then there is the simple fact that this is Texas. Trump won the state by 13.6 points two years ago, while Cruz won his Senate race by 8.5 points even though he substantially underperformed Trump.
Talarico does not need to turn Texas into a blue state to win. He only needs to run several points ahead of the normal Democratic statewide performance against a Republican candidate with unusually high negatives.
That is exactly what the polling currently suggests he may be doing. But it is also why Paxton can remain competitive despite looking weak by normal Texas Republican standards.
So Can Paxton Still Win?
The polling says Talarico has a narrow advantage heading into the final week, and that should be taken seriously. He has led more surveys, has stronger favorability within his own party and has pushed a normally Republican state into genuine toss-up territory.
But the margin is small enough that Texas’s recent polling history still matters. Republican Senate candidates beat the final polling average in 2014, 2020 and 2024, Trump significantly outran his Texas polling in 2024, and most Trump voters in the latest University of Texas survey still say they are supporting Paxton despite his weaker personal numbers.
None of that proves the polls are wrong or that Paxton will win. It does mean that a Democratic lead of one or two points is a very different thing from a Democratic lead of five or six.
For Democrats, the polling is good news. For Republicans, the math is not nearly bad enough to conclude Texas has already slipped away.
Follow the latest numbers on our 2026 Senate polls page and visit our 2026 Senate elections guide for the latest races around the country.