2026 Midterm Election Odds: Senate and House

Who will control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections? Follow Kalshi prediction-market prices for the U.S. House, U.S. Senate and the balance of power in Congress. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

These market-implied odds reflect prices set by traders. They are different from polling averages and do not represent an Election Central forecast.

Latest 2026 House and Senate election odds

The dashboard tracks separate House and Senate control markets, plus the four possible combinations of control in Congress. Select a market button to view current prices and settlement rules on Kalshi.

Disclosure: Our Kalshi links contain a referral code. Election Central may receive a referral benefit when an eligible reader signs up and meets Kalshi’s requirements.

How to read election prediction-market odds

A contract that pays $1 if an outcome occurs can trade at a price interpreted as a market-implied probability. For example, a midpoint price of 60 cents is displayed here as 60%. That reflects market pricing, rather than a measured share of voters or a guaranteed outcome.

This dashboard uses the midpoint between each outcome’s YES bid and YES ask. These figures may differ from Kalshi’s displayed “chance.” Separate outcomes may not add to exactly 100%, and the Congress combination market can differ from the standalone House and Senate markets. We do not normalize the figures or calculate combined odds by multiplying the chamber percentages.

What does control of Congress mean?

The House and Senate markets ask which party will win control following the 2026 election. The Congress balance-of-power market covers four outcomes:

• Democratic sweep: Democrats control both the House and Senate.
• Republican sweep: Republicans control both chambers.
• Democratic House, Republican Senate: Each party controls one chamber.
• Republican House, Democratic Senate: The reverse division of control.

The contracts settle under Kalshi’s market rules. Settlement dates can fall in 2027 even though the election takes place in November 2026. Review each linked market for the exact conditions.

Election odds versus Senate polls

Polls measure voter preferences in a sample at a particular time. Prediction markets reflect what traders are willing to pay for contracts tied to an outcome. Prices may respond to polls, news and turnout expectations, but can also be affected by trading activity, liquidity and wide bid–ask spreads.

Our 2026 Senate polling page tracks RealClearPolitics averages and includes a map showing what those polling leads would mean for Senate control.

For candidates and race ratings, explore our Senate election guide and House election guide.

Sources and update policy

Market quotes come from Kalshi’s public market-data API. The dashboard is configured to refresh approximately every 10 minutes and displays the time of each successful fetch. Updates depend on site scheduling and source availability.

If an update fails, the last successful snapshot remains visible with a delayed-data notice. Missing quotes and closed or resolved markets are identified. Refer to the linked Kalshi markets for current prices and complete rules.

Trading involves risk, including loss of the amount paid and fees. Eligibility and location restrictions apply. This page provides election information and does not provide trading advice.