The Virginia attorney general race has suddenly turned into one of the most volatile contests in the country. Just a week ago, Democrat Jay Jones held a modest lead over Republican incumbent Jason Miyares. Now, new polling and betting data suggest the race has flipped.
Since last week, Democrats have struggled to deal with Jones’ scandal, leaving many to wonder just how bad it could get for the entire Democratic ticket.
Polling: a fast swing toward Miyares
- Trafalgar Group (Oct. 8–10): Miyares 49%, Jones 43%, undecided 8%
- Previous Trafalgar (Sept. 29–Oct. 1): Jones 49%, Miyares 45%
- Other recent polls (Cygnal, Hart, CNU) show the same shift, with Jones losing support among independents after the scandal broke
That’s a swing of nearly ten points in little more than a week, a rare move in a statewide race this late in the cycle.
Betting Markets Flip
Prediction markets have followed the polls. Platforms like PredictIt and Polymarket, which allow users to bet on election outcomes, now show Miyares favored for the first time this year. According to Axios, more than $175,000 has been wagered on the race, and the line flipped decisively toward Republicans right after the Jones text-message story broke.
The Jay Jones Text Messages
On October 3, leaked messages from Jones surfaced in which he expressed a desire to see former House Speaker Todd Gilbert receive “two bullets” to the head, along with threats to Gilbert’s children. Law enforcement groups, including the Virginia Fraternal Order of Police, called for Jones to drop out. National coverage quickly followed, turning the race from a quiet Democratic hold into a referendum on character and judgment.
Democrats have tried to move the focus back to abortion and education while trying to excuse Jones’ heinous words, but the story has dominated the news cycle. Even some liberal commentators have admitted that Jones’ campaign may not recover before Election Day.
Where things stand now
The trend lines are clear:
- Momentum is with Miyares, who has led Virginia’s top law enforcement office since 2022
- Undecided voters appear to be breaking late for stability, not risk
- Jones’ favorability numbers have plunged in both public and internal polling
If the numbers hold, Republicans could retain the attorney general’s office and deliver another warning shot to Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Christian Heiens, a well-connected observer of Virginia elections, is seeing some internal numbers suggesting Jones is on the verge of atomic collapse compared to the rest of the Democratic ticket.
What looked like a safe Democratic seat two weeks ago is now one of the GOP’s best opportunities in Virginia and perhaps the clearest example yet of how fast a campaign can implode. Jones and Miyares are scheduled to debate on October 16.
There will undoubtedly be some splash from Jones’ implosion back on his Democratic colleagues running for Governor and Lt. Governor, but it remains to be seen how much it will affect these other races.