For most of this year, Democrats treated the Virginia statewide elections as a victory lap. They expected to reclaim the governor’s mansion and carry the entire ticket. But with Election Day approaching, new polling shows the races are much closer than expected.
Democrats are no longer projecting confidence. They are scrambling and even calling in former President Barack Obama to help boost turnout, something that shouldn’t be necessary in a year where the party that just lost the White House should be plenty enthused to vote.
Latest Polling
co/efficient
Oct 15–17, 2025; 937 likely voters (Source)
- Governor: Spanberger (D) 49% (+5🔵) • Earle-Sears (R) 44%
- Lt. Governor: Hashmi (D) 47% (+5🔵) • Reid (R) 42%
- Attorney General: Miyares (R) 46% (+4🔴) • Jones (D) 42%
Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU)
Oct 6–14, 2025; 842 likely voters (Source)
- Governor: Spanberger (D) 49% (+7🔵) • Earle-Sears (R) 42%
- Lt. Governor: Hashmi (D) 44% (+1🔵) • Reid (R) 43%
- Attorney General: Miyares (R) 45% (+3🔴) • Jones (D) 42%
Christopher Newport University (CNU)
Oct 21–23, 2025; 803 likely voters (Source)
- Governor: Spanberger (D) 50% (+7🔵) • Earle-Sears (R) 43%
- Lt. Governor: Hashmi (D) 47% (+2🔵) • Reid (R) 45%
- Attorney General: Miyares (R) 46% (+1🔴) • Jones (D) 45%
What Changed
At the start of the cycle, Democrats held double-digit leads in some polls and appeared poised for a clean sweep. Now, the situation looks very different.
- The governor’s race remains competitive. Spanberger is ahead, but her lead is not large
- The lieutenant governor’s race is essentially tied
- The attorney general’s race has shifted toward Republicans, and the numbers are consistent across multiple polls
Instead of projecting strength, Democrats are suddenly trying to hold onto what they thought was already theirs. The final weeks of the campaign look nothing like the easy glide path they expected.
Jay Jones Is Dragging Down The Ticket
The biggest problem for Democrats is attorney general candidate Jay Jones. His campaign has been hit by damning revelations surrounding text messages wishing death on former Virginia House of Delegates Speaker, Todd Gilbert, and Gilbert’s children. The scandal has turned what should have been a winnable race into a liability.
Jones has provided Republicans with an opening not only to hold the attorney general’s office, but also to depress enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket as a whole. When the bottom of a ticket is this bad, it affects fundraising, staffing, and voter intensity across the board.
Jones is doing more damage to Democrats than Republicans are.
Hashmi Is Running a Terrible Campaign
Ghazala Hashmi, the Democrat running for lieutenant governor, is barely visible on the trail. Instead of making the case for herself, she has stayed out of the spotlight. Her numbers reflect a campaign that is simply hoping Spanberger carries her across the finish line.
But voters tend not to reward candidates who hide. Still, it’s likely Hasmi can win if Spanberger does, unless some of the Jones angst spills up the ballot.
John Reid, the Republican nominee, is outperforming expectations and turning the race into a genuine toss-up. His campaigning has been constant, and his media presence has propelled him into contention.
Democrats Are Nervous
The clearest sign that Democrats are worried: Barack Obama is being flown into Virginia to campaign with Abigail Spanberger. Parties that think they are winning do not bring in former presidents during the final stretch.
Democrats expected Virginia to be a blue firewall. Instead, they are trying to plug leaks in multiple races at once.
Republicans, on the other hand, have a simple path to victory:
Vote. In large numbers.
They do not need to flip independents by ten points. They do not need to reinvent their message. The polling shows that the races are already close. Republicans just need their voters to actually show up. With Democrats seeming somewhat depressed by a weak ticket, the GOP has an opening for an upset, though it’s a narrow path.
Bottom Line
Spanberger is ahead, but not comfortably.
Hashmi is struggling and playing too cautiously.
Jay Jones is a drag on the entire Democratic ticket.
Republicans can win statewide if turnout is strong.
Democrats spent most of this year preparing victory speeches. Now they are preparing last-minute rallies with President Barack Obama. The races in Virginia are tight, and the final days will determine everything.