The contest to succeed Phil Murphy is shaping up as one of the most competitive in recent memory for New Jersey. On the Democratic side, Mikie Sherrill holds a lead, but the margin is narrow and slipping. On the Republican side, Jack Ciattarelli is in striking distance, tapping into voter discontent over cost-of-living issues and leveraging higher turnout momentum.
Lates Polls
Recent data tell a story of a shrinking lead for Sherrill. A poll from Rutgers University shows Sherrill ahead by about five points. Other surveys go further—one indicates the race is tied 44-44. Even with Sherrill leading, many analysts say this is “really bad news for her” because the baseline advantage she once enjoyed has largely vanished. In short, the lead exists, but it’s thin enough for a swing.
Early Voting Trends
Early in-person voting is underway in New Jersey and could shape the outcome in meaningful ways. The state’s early-voting window runs from October 25 to November 2. While full turnout details aren’t yet finalized, the signals are clear: Republicans appear to be narrowing the gap in early voting. In a state where Democrats typically hold significant structural advantages, even a small GOP uptick in turnout can change the game.
Why Republicans Have a Shot
Ciattarelli’s campaign rests on a few pillars: rising concern among voters over taxes and affordability, his near-victory in 2021 (demonstrating he can compete here), and momentum that suggests the Democratic advantage may be vulnerable. With the lead so slim, the GOP case is no longer theoretical—it’s plausible.
Why Democrats Are Still Ahead—but Worried
Sherrill still leads in most public polls and retains the built-in advantages of being the Democratic candidate in a state with more registered Democrats. Yet that advantage is under fire. The lead is thin, turnout is unpredictable, and Republican gains in areas like Latino and suburban voters may be eating into her cushion.
Also, it’s New Jersey. One of the most reliably blue states. There are a lot of Democratic votes to be had, even with higher-than-normal GOP enthusiasm for a candidate. Democrats may be worried, but the environment still favors Sherill by default.
The Bottom Line
With the margin this narrow, every vote counts. The winner may be decided not on policy nuance but on turnout, enthusiasm, and last-minute swings. For Republicans hoping to swing New Jersey red, this race offers a real shot—not because the deck is fully stacked in their favor, but because the gap is small enough to flip. For Democrats, the standard operating assumption of victory is ticking toward risky, but not out of hand.