Democrats are talking themselves into Gavin Newsom as the party’s next big hope. His poll numbers have surged in recent months, putting him at the front of the early 2028 field. In California, he’s miles ahead of Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, and nationally, he’s suddenly a favorite among party insiders and donors eager for someone who feels new.
Style Over Substance
But much of the buzz looks more like delusion than strategy. Newsom’s rise is built on viral clips, sharp comebacks, and slick but empty social media content. He has made a name for himself trolling President Trump, picking fights that get plenty of likes but do little to show how he would lead the country. Democrats mistake this for strength, but what resonates with a coastal audience doesn’t translate to the Midwest or Rust Belt.
California’s Troubles
California itself tells a more complicated story. The state has sky-high housing costs, businesses leaving, and crime issues that never seem fully addressed. Newsom has drawn fire for moves like scrapping the state’s independent redistricting commission, a decision critics saw as a raw grab for power. Instead of confronting these challenges head-on, he tends to spin them away or double down on messaging.
Meanwhile, other Democrats are doing the unglamorous work Newsom avoids. Ro Khanna has been walking picket lines with union workers in Pennsylvania. It is not flashy, but it shows an understanding of the voters who decide presidential elections. Newsom, by contrast, has leaned into podcasts and high-profile sparring matches with right-wing personalities. It gets attention, but not the kind that wins over swing voters.
The danger for Democrats is simple: they are falling for style over substance. Newsom looks good on camera, speaks in crisp soundbites, and knows how to provoke Republicans. But there is little evidence he can connect with voters outside his California bubble. Republicans are already itching to run against him, eager to make California’s problems, from skyrocketing costs to rising crime and an exodus of residents, the centerpiece of their case.
A Risky Bet for 2028
Yet Democrats seem almost blinded by his image, convincing themselves that his coastal polish and viral moments make him presidential material. It is an illusion that could come crashing down in a general election, where swing-state voters are not looking for a governor-turned-influencer. Look no further than another California politician who failed to connect with voters, former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Newsom may be the darling of the Democratic imagination right now, but that says more about the party’s desperation than about his viability. Betting the future on him is not bold, it’s more like latching onto the first shinty, hair-gel-soaked thing that comes along.