The 2025 Virginia governor’s race between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears is tightening. Spanberger still holds the advantage, but the latest polling shows the contest is closer than it was earlier this year, with momentum shifting toward Sears.
Roanoke College Poll
681 likely voters | Aug. 11–15, 2025 | (Source)
- Abigail Spanberger (D): 46%
- Winsome Earle-Sears (R): 39%
- Undecided: 14%
Just a few months earlier, the same poll showed Spanberger ahead by 17 points, making this a clear sign that Sears is gaining ground as more voters start to tune in.
Co/efficient Poll
1,025 likely voters | Aug. 23–26, 2025 | (Source)
- Abigail Spanberger (D): 48%
- Winsome Earle-Sears (R): 43%
- Donna Charles (I): 3%
- Undecided: 7%
Spanberger’s numbers remain under the 50 percent mark, often seen as the line that signals safety for a frontrunner. Sears breaks into the low forties, while independent candidate Donna Charles pulls in a modest but notable share. The number of undecided voters is still large enough to change the outcome.
Cultural Flashpoint: Boys in Girls’ Sports
The co/efficient poll also asked voters about a cultural issue that has stirred heated debate. When asked if biological boys should be allowed to participate in girls’ sports, the results were overwhelming:
- Oppose: 73%
- Support: 17%
- Unsure: 10%
This finding shows one of the strongest splits of the entire survey. It reflects how cultural questions remain a powerful factor in Virginia politics, adding intensity to a campaign already shaped by economic and education concerns. To further impact, this is an 80/20 issue where Spanberger is falling on the wrong side of the majority of voters even within her own party. Earle-Sears has made it a point to stand against this lunacy.
Bottom Line
Spanberger still leads, but her margin has dropped from double digits earlier in the year to a single-digit gap in the latest polls. Sears is benefiting from a surge of Republican enthusiasm and from issues that draw lopsided public opinion. With both candidates preparing for the final stretch, Virginia is shaping up to be far more competitive than many observers expected.