The party might be over before it started in the 2024 presidential primary.
While President Biden never actually faced serious primary opposition other than the voices in his head, former President Trump took a little longer to vanquish the likes of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley before hitting an open road ahead.
With recent primaries this week in Georgia and Mississippi, both Trump and Biden have secured their titles as presumptive nominees, per the New York Times:
President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump on Tuesday secured the delegates necessary to clinch their parties’ presidential nominations, according to The Associated Press, cementing a general election rematch in November months in the making.
Both men and their campaigns have long anticipated this moment. Mr. Biden faced only token opposition in the Democratic primary, as is typical for a sitting president, while Mr. Trump had been his party’s dominant front-runner for months.
The Associated Press named Mr. Biden the presumptive Democratic nominee on Tuesday after projecting his victory in Georgia, while Mr. Trump was designated the presumptive Republican nominee after he swept the G.O.P. contests in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington State. Later, Mr. Trump captured the Republican caucuses in Hawaii.
It’s safe to assume November will be a Trump-Biden rematch, but not entirely so. Each man faces various hurdles.
For President Biden, it’s the ongoing concern that he simply is not mentally fit to execute the duties of the presidency. Regardless of his so-called “fiery” State of the Union address that was heavy on demagoguery and light on accomplishments, Joe Biden is a sore even within his party, even among his advisors.
While Biden pledges to press on toward the nomination, and legally speaking, it’s his for the taking, will he make it to Election Day without being replaced? While he can’t be pushed out against his will, if it looks like he might lose to Trump, Democrats will hit the panic button at some point. Whether they can mount a coup at the Democratic National Convention remains to be seen. Replacing Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris seems like the only viable path moving forward. However, Harris is less liked than her boss so it’s a lose-lose either way.
Former President Trump is still fighting the politically motivated legal challenges being hurled against him in a “kitchen sink” strategy designed to paint him as a villain. So far, the only villains revealed have been hack district attorneys trying to make a name for themselves by prosecuting a man they politically hate.
Within the Republican Party, Trump’s opposition has been effectively neutralized by beating his primary opponents and now installing his preferred choices as heads of the Republican National Committee.
The bottom line is that this presidential cycle will remain unusual through November. Rematches are rare in presidential politics and this year will bring us a bruising and hard-fought campaign. Democrats will be crawling over broken glass to prevent Trump from entering the Oval Office again, but their team of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are looking pretty weak this time around.
Voters of all stripes have enjoyed the fruits of Biden’s record inflation and they’re ready to make an “I told you so” change.
