With the exit of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis from the primary, it’s down to the two-person race of Nikki Haley’s dreams.
However, Haley’s dream may become a nightmare if she can’t squeak out a victory in the only state where she has a nominal chance.
New Hampshire will get its turn to stamp the GOP primary on Tuesday and, by most accounts, former President Donald Trump appears poised to win decisively barring a surge of independents or Democrats voting for Nikki Haley.
Here’s a sampling of the final polls heading into Tuesday.
Suffolk University is giving Trump a 19-point lead over Haley with data partially collected after DeSantis dropped out:
? 2024 New Hampshire GOP Primary
• Trump — 57% (+19)
• Haley — 38%Suffolk (A-) | 500 LV | 1/20-21 | ±4.4%https://t.co/HTXsPVROop pic.twitter.com/wBP0BbUXTd
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 22, 2024
The final Monmouth University poll was conducted entirely before DeSantis left the race so he’s still garnering measurable support. Assume most of his support goes to Trump and some to Haley, it’s still easily Trump’s game:
Final New Hampshire GOP Primary Poll
• Trump — 52% (+18)
• Haley — 34%
• DeSants — 8%
—
Favs:
Trump: 59-36 (+23)
Haley: 46-40 (+6)
—
WP/Monmouth (A) | 1/16-20 | 712 LVhttps://t.co/14OU3hbfuQ pic.twitter.com/lh3ynA5y4s— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 22, 2024
The IndersAdvantage poll is more friendly to Trump and forecasts a larger double-digit blowout on Tuesday night. With Trump winning Iowa and more candidates leaving the field, the former president is consolidating support on his way to the nomination:
Final New Hampshire GOP Primary Poll
• Trump — 62% (+27)
• Haley — 35%
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Undecided — 3%@InsiderPolling | January 21 | 850 LVhttps://t.co/gFs9cXAiqs pic.twitter.com/mqQ24FiPRd— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 22, 2024
While anything can happen, and the numbers could be tighter than this, it doesn’t seem like an upset for Haley is brewing anywhere near the surface.
Finally, the latest CNN/University of New Hampshire poll is probably the most generous to Haley showing her down only 10 points:
The race for the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary appears to be former President Donald Trump’s to lose, according to a new CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire following Trump’s 30-point win in Iowa’s caucuses last week.
Trump holds 50% support among likely Republican primary voters in the Granite State, while his closest competitor, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, stands at 39%. Both have gained supporters since the last CNN/UNH poll in early January – when Trump held 39% to Haley’s 32% – as the field of major contenders has shrunk. Both Trump and Haley now hold their highest level of support in UNH polling on the race since 2021. But Haley’s sharp gains since late last summer have not been enough to catch Trump, as the gap between them has once again widened to double digits.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Sunday that he is ending his White House bid and endorsing the former president. He stood at just 6% in the poll, below the 10% minimum support he would need to win delegates there per the Republican Party’s rules.
Despite claims to the contrary, if Haley doesn’t outright win New Hampshire, her campaign is over.
Even the state’s Governor, Chris Sununu, who endorsed Haley, changed his tune from claiming Haley was going clobber Trump to hoping for a “strong second,” according to the New York Post:
Nikki Haley’s foremost surrogate in New Hampshire, GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, is tempering expectations for the former ambassador to the United Nations in next week’s first-in-the-nation primary.
“We always wanted to have a strong second. That’s the only expectation we ever laid out there,” the governor told ABC News correspondent Byron Pitts.
That statement doesn’t quite jibe with what the governor told an audience in Londonderry Jan. 3.
After saying that “having a strong second place finish was always our goal” in the Granite State, the governor added: “We’ve got that wrapped up, guys … we’re gonna win.”
The “Haley surge” after the November and December debates was real only in the sense that it hurt DeSantis’ chances. Haley was never actually close to landing anything serious against Trump. What she managed to do, with help from big-dollar donors, was muscle her way into second place by talking like a globalist Democrat.
Anything can happen in New Hampshire, sure, but betting the house on Haley in a come-from-behind victory is a fool’s errand.
