So much for the “Iowa as a last stand” strategy from the Ron DeSantis campaign? The numbers for former President Donald Trump seem to be improving in Iowa rather than eroding, or so the latest polling would indicate.
According to new numbers from the Des Moines Register and NBC News, Trump’s running 30 points ahead of DeSantis and Nikki Haley:
Former President Donald Trump now leads his nearest Republican rivals by nearly 30 points in Iowa, with two-thirds of likely GOP caucusgoers dismissing the severity of his legal challenges, according to the second conducted by J. Ann Selzer.
The survey also finds former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley moving up to a tie for second place with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, both of whom remain popular with Iowa Republicans ahead of the Jan. 15 GOP caucuses.
Yet the poll shows Trump’s supporters are more enthusiastic and locked into their choice than Haley’s and DeSantis’ backers are, even as likely Republican caucusgoers are divided over whether Trump should remain the leader of the GOP.
“My life was a lot better when Trump was in office. I felt safe; things were cheaper; he helped out the farmers and my parents. Things were better — plain and simple,” said poll respondent Kendall Pelzer, 53, of Bettendorf, Iowa, who says he’s caucusing for Trump.
The Des Moines Register polls, conducted by J. Ann Selzer, are watched a little more closely since Selzer is the preeminent political prognosticator in the Hawkey State. She’s been polling the caucuses in both parties for decades and knows her way around the local political landscape.
Here’s the full chart for comparison:
Despite all DeSantis’ time and effort being poured into Iowa as his first and last chance to stop Trump, nothing is moving the needle in the right direction. Trump’s numbers have actually improved slightly since August.
In fact, the opposite has happened. Trump has become stronger in the state. If it’s true that over 40% of GOP caucusgoers are essentially locked into Trump, it’s hard to see a scenario where any other candidate makes a competitive run at a win in Iowa.
Steve Kornacki, on X, points out that Trump’s support is at record levels compared to historical trends on the GOP side. Furthermore, if evangelicals were thought to be rejecting Trump and embracing someone like Pence… nope:
Here are the results w/ Pence included among IA GOP evangelicals. They make up ~2/3 of the caucus electorate and Pence believed he had a unique bond with them. But…
Trump 43%
DeSantis 22%
Haley 14%
Scott 7%
Christie 3%
Ramaswamy 3%
Burgum 1%
Hutchinson 1%
Pence 1%— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) October 30, 2023
DeSantis supporters are now in the phase of arguing that the Iowa numbers put their guy in a great spot heading into the caucus. That’s little more than wishful thinking wrapped up in some kind of denialism that, at the last minute, Trump’s base will abandon him for someone else. It’s true that the end result in January will look closer than these numbers suggest, but even if you add 20 points to the second-place candidate right now, an outside possibility, Trump’s still winning by six points.
The situation on the ground could change of course, but there is nothing in the data anywhere to suggest Trump’s on the verge of losing Iowa or even possibly losing Iowa. On the contrary, the storyline is that DeSantis is losing ground to Nikki Haley while Trump’s lead hardens.
