Ever since President Biden announced his intention to seek re-election, the response from voters has ranged from tepid to hostile.
According to a new poll from CNN/SRRI, Biden’s approval numbers remain near all-time lows but have also hit another historical marker:
Just a third of Americans say that Biden winning in 2024 would be a step forward or a triumph for the country (33%). At the same time, the survey finds a decline in favorable views of Biden over the past six months, from 42% in December to 35% now. And results from the same poll released earlier this week showed Biden’s approval rating for handling the presidency at 40%, among the lowest for any first-term president since Dwight Eisenhower at this point in their term. [Emphasis added]
Having the lowest first-term approval since Dwight Eisenhower is something a president really has to work at. Even in the most partisan points of recent history, not George W. Bush, Barack Obama, or Donald Trump hit these numbers in their first term.
Joe Biden is paddling in his own uncharted territory while his approval and confidence among voters continue slipping in the wrong direction.
While Democrats overall support Biden’s re-election, there are several key demographics where the President is struggling:
But the results signal that Biden could face a challenge keeping Democratic-aligned White non-college voters in his camp in next year’s general election: 16% of these voters say they definitely won’t support Biden in November 2024, compared with 1% of White Democratic-aligned voters with college degrees and 5% of Democratic-aligned voters of color.
Biden’s weak spots in the race for the nomination are concentrated among independents who lean Democratic (40% back Biden for the nod, compared with 67% among self-identified Democrats) and younger voters (49% of those younger than 45 say they back Biden compared with 68% among those age 45 or older).
This is where the election will swing. Biden won back some of the independent and suburban votes that went for Trump in 2016 but he’s done his best to lose that support with his bad economic policies and general aloofness.
Without the cover of Covid and mail-in ballot harvesting schemes, how will Biden compete again in 2024 given his terrible record and inability to convince anyone he’s actually up to the job of being President?
Another recent poll we highlighted found that just 32% of respondents thought Biden had the mental acuity necessary to carry out the role of commander-in-chief.
In other words, Biden is on the down escalator of popularity when it comes to the way voters see his job performance. Nothing seems to be improving and Biden, despite claims of competence, has found few levers of government to pull the right way to inspire confidence.
Finally, when compared to Trump, Biden’s former advantage of being viewed more favorably has eroded:
The poll finds that one advantage Biden held over Trump in their first matchup in 2020 – a stronger favorability rating – may have evaporated. Among all Americans, 35% say they have a favorable view of Biden and 57% an unfavorable one, numbers near identical to Trump’s. Positive views of Biden stood at 42% as recently as December, and among independents over that time, his favorability has dipped from 35% to 26%.
All this in summation, Republicans should be thrilled that Biden is seeking a second term with these numbers regardless of who the GOP nominates in 2024.
