Yes, it’s 2023 on the calendar but it’s basically the start of the 2024 presidential election season.
Since former President Donald Trump announced his candidacy back on Nov. 15, which seems like an eternity ago, the jockeying for the 2024 Republican nomination has begun. Here is a list of the most likely contenders that have a non-zero chance of becoming the 2024 GOP standard bearer.
1. Former President Donald Trump
Could you put Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the top spot? Sure, you could, and you probably would be arguably correct. The one thing that Trump has going for him that DeSantis doesn’t, however, is that Trump was already President and already has a built-in base of support. It’s true Trump’s support has been waning and perhaps even hemorrhaging over the past couple of months, especially following some bad midterm losses in November, so he’s weaker than he was a year ago.
With Trump, writing his political epitaph or declaring him “finished” in politics is a dangerous game. Just because the media elite in DC and New York have written him off for the seven-hundredth time doesn’t mean the rest of the country has.
Baggage is still, well, baggage, and Trump’s got an ocean liner full of it. The most recent accumulation of midterm losses is probably the most stinging. Beyond electoral failures of Trump-endorsed candidates is a potential looming indictment for something. Democrats have been trying to indict Trump of something for years and have failed each time. Still, there’s no indication that even an indictment, which would be spun as politically-motivated, would detach a sizable chunk of Trump’s base from his 2024 candidacy.
Like it or not, Trump is still the kingpin for 2024 on the Republican side. He’s still leading in the polls, though his support has softened.
2. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
Following his blockbuster midterm victory in November where Republicans trounced Democrats all over the state of Florida, DeSantis’ stock skyrocketed among 2024 contenders. He was already becoming popular but the double-digit victory over has-been Charlie Crist sealed the deal, so to speak, of DeSantis as a powerful force in building coalitions and attracting support from conservatives, moderates, and even many Democrats.
DeSantis has taken up the mantle of being anti-lockdown from the beginning and pro-freedom when it comes to the Covid-19 vaccine, two issues on which he comfortably sits to the right of Donald Trump.
As for timing, DeSantis has to get through the upcoming Florida legislative session, which ends in May. Just recently, he appeared to signal a move to the right in terms of backing a constitutional carry law in Florida as well as offering support for a “heartbeat” bill that would tighten the state’s current 15-week abortion ban. Both issues would also help position him for a future primary run for the 2024 Republican nomination.
3. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley
Wait, what? Yes, Nikki Haley has some star power behind her and an ability to unite certain factions of the party. She’s not all that popular but not entirely implausible in terms of a 2024 GOP nominee. She has continued to bridge the gap between the MAGA wing, at least somewhat, and the establishment wing of the party.
Furthermore, she’s a younger face in the crowd and will likely set off on a 2024 presidential run at some point. After all, her time is pretty much drawing to a close unless she gets back into politics somewhere other than as a speaker or a commentator.
She might also be a top contender as a running mate for either Trump or DeSantis to balance the ticket.
4. Sen. Ted Cruz
The only reason Cruz is where he is on this list is due to polling support. He’s still got a little steam left in terms of support for a presidential run but not much. His time came and likely went during the 2016 primary where he was unable to topple Donald Trump. If there’s a “consensus candidate” between Trump and someone else, Cruz is not going to be the name.
There’s no doubt that Cruz continues to be a force in conservative politics, but he’s generally sort of, well, unlikeable. There was the Cancun Ted episode where he fled the state of Texas during the deep freeze power disaster in February of 2021 only to be shamed into returning early from a tropical vacation while his state was literally freezing to death. He was trying to get his family somewhere warmer, and that’s laudable, but the optics of a sitting U.S. Senator escaping to a tropical paradise while his constituents remained without power or heat was not good.
In short, Cruz is a strong Senator but would quickly be seen as a weak presidential candidate. Nonetheless, he’s on the list.
5. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin
Youngkin, a newcomer to politics after his big win in 2021 over the Democratic machine backing Terry McAuliffe in Virginia, will likely launch a 2024 presidential campaign. He spent the better part of 2022 cross-crossing the country campaigning for many, many candidates. In return. Youngkin is hoping to cash in on the goodwill he created in terms of contacts and name-building to launch a run in 2024.
Youngkin is not Trump and he’s not DeSantis, he’s somewhere else as a third option. As a Governor, he’s been a solid leader though not an “activist” sort of leader the way DeSantis has been. Youngkin has responded big on the issue of education of parental rights, a large plank of his 2021 victory platform. On other bread-and-butter conservative issues, he’s been trying to cut taxes in Virginia and return money to residents from a multi-billion dollar state surplus.
In total, Youngkin probably doesn’t have a chance of breaking through the Trump-DeSantis ceiling since that lane will be taken, but he does have a record to tout and a well-meaning voice to add to the conversation.
6. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
Pompeo has remained a close ally of Donald Trump but appeared to break with him after the 2022 midterms. For that reason alone, it’s likely Pompeo’s 2024 aspirations are gone before he even starts. Pompeo said he’s “tired of losing,” implying that continuing to hitch the GOP to trump will result in future losses. He also went on to accuse Trump of claiming “victimhood” at every turn.
As a result, Pompeo’s MAGA support, which was probably the only thing keeping his name relevant, will fade away and disappear. What will be left is a semi-boring former Secretary of State that isn’t going to light up primary voters the way DeSantis or even Youngkin would.
7. Former Vice President Mike Pence
Pence seems intent on launching a campaign in 2024 or at least seems open to the possibility of it. Having broken with Trump long ago and coming off a recent book tour in which he spent plenty of time criticizing the former president, where does Pence’s base of support really sit?
As far as the establishment goes, Pence is damaged goods having been the VP for Donald Trump. As far as the MAGA base goes, Pence is a traitor that refused to de-certify the 2020 election results and will never be anything more. If anyone is going to unify the GOP, it won’t be Mike Pence.
With higher profile names in the ring like DeSantis or even Nikki Haley, where does Pence have an open lane?
8. Sen. Tim Scott
Tim Scott is an impressive figure and one of those names often touted for higher office within the GOP. He’s been a uniting force in the party and has typically avoided much direct criticism of Donald Trump. He’s remained popular in his own state and has often worked in the Senate as a voice to bridge the partisan gap.
Does Scott have backing for the presidency? At the current time, it wouldn’t appear so. Polling puts him a point behind Liz Cheney on average, in a place where no serious candidates are usually sitting.
The bottom line for the GOP in 2024 is that the shortlist is shorter than usual with names like Trump and DeSantis at the top muscling out pretty much everyone else. If Trump bows out or fails to truly capture his base of support, then the field might shift and expand. For now, though, it’s a Trump/DeSantis battle for the 2024 GOP nomination.
