The vote counting is still happening on the 11th round as of writing but it looks like McCarthy’s going down in defeat once again.
Today’s action now marks the longest battle for the Speaker of the House since before the Civil War. In that regard, you can’t say this has never happened before, it has. It just hasn’t happened recently.
This time, for round eleven, former President Donald Trump’s name got thrown in the mix as well:
GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida again nominated former President Trump for House speaker during an 11th round of voting — this time delivering a lengthy speech.
“I rise to nominate Donald Trump for the position of speaker of the House,” Gaetz said, touting the Trump administration on the economy, tax cuts, and wage increases. “For all of the vitriol that we hear from the media, and at times the left, there were great moments of bipartisanship under the Trump presidency.”
Gaetz first nominated and cast a vote for the former president during the 7th round of voting earlier on Thursday after previously voting for Donalds on earlier ballots.
“This government for far too long has been deeply corrupt,” Gaetz said. “If we just go next man up on our side of the aisle we will reify that corrupt system.”
Despite all the talk of “concessions” or “deals” being cut earlier today, nothing appears to have changed on the surface. The same 20 “Never Kevin” Republicans are holding firm and McCarthy himself has shown no sign of stepping aside.
There’s a lot of rumbling, however, that something has to give in the next 24 hours. Could McCarthy cut a written deal with his opponents, could he team up with Democrats to get himself out of this problem, or would he consider stepping aside? It would seem like a fool’s errand to predict how this will end given how long it’s dragged on since Tuesday. Both sides seem entrenched which means it’s a staring contest waiting for someone to blink.
At what point does McCarthy become damaged not because he lost so many rounds, but because he’s clearly inept at negotiating his way into the position and placating difficult members of his own party?
According to some analysis over at the Examiner, there are likely three ways out of this mess:
1. McCarthy strikes deal with GOP holdouts and wins speakership
In what would be considered the most ideal outcome for McCarthy, the California Republican is vying to win over enough Republican holdouts to push him over the 218-vote threshold to be elected as House speaker.
2. McCarthy drops bid and Republicans elect another GOP lawmaker
Alternatively, McCarthy could drop his speakership bid altogether and pave the way for Republicans to elect another member of their party to take up the speaker’s gavel.
3. Parties strike deal on “unity candidate,” electing a centrist Republican
As McCarthy and other far-right members of his party wrestle with accomplishing one of the first two options, other Republicans have quietly been considering making a deal with Democrats to elect a “unity candidate” that can garner the support of both parties.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said Wednesday she wouldn’t rule out finding such a candidate to replace McCarthy but noted Democrats would need to see more concessions from Republicans in order to do so. However, Democrats have made clear they will not bail out McCarthy or the Republican Party as they scramble to elect a speaker.
According to Bloomberg, there are five possible fallback candidates that could be floated as consensus options if McCarthy decides to step aside:
- Rep. Steve Scalise (Louisiana’s 1st district)
- Rep. Tom Cole (Oklahoma’s 4th district)
- Rep. Patrick McHenry (North Carolina’s 10th district)
- Rep. Elise Stefanik (New York’s 21st district)
- Rep. Jim Jordan (Ohio’s 4th district)
Out of that list, Scalise and Jordan have been floated the most but none of them would be conceivably off the table at this point.
Still, the most likely scenario would be one where McCarthy is able to cut a deal with someone, somehow, to eventually win a majority. Democrats will be a hard block to break and would require major concessions, that door is probably closed. The question is whether McCarthy is able to prove that he deserves the job by negotiating his way with the “Never Kevin” caucus to try and bring some of them around.
At the moment, voting could go further in the evening and you can still watch it live.
According to sources, McCarthy doesn’t have the votes to adjourn and clear the House floor:
Total scramble right now.
McCarthy doesn't have enough votes to adjourn, even after many members have seen the "deal", GOP sources tell @Olivia_Beavers & me
That's to say nothing about the votes for speaker gavel
— Sarah Ferris (@sarahnferris) January 6, 2023
