The Georgia Senate runoff election between Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, and his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, takes place on Dec. 6.
Both sides are fighting tooth and nail for this seat. Not because it will decide the Senate balance of power since that fate was sealed in Nevada and Arizona. The only thing Republicans would get from a Walker win and a 50/50 Senate would be equal seating on committee assignments. Vice President Kamala Harris would still be the tie-breaker essentially giving Democrats the majority in legislative votes but not committee votes.
As a result, the race is more of a slog than an excitement. Raphael Warnock has his closet of baggage such as hosting anti-Semitic speakers at his church and presiding over eviction trials from church-owned low-income apartment complexes for disagreements over rent. Warnock is also pro-abortion, a strange dichotomy of beliefs for a man who allegedly preaches from the Bible and believes that God has uniquely woven every child in the womb.
Nonetheless, it’s a decision to be made between two rather flawed candidates in Georgia. Walker already basically lost this race once but prevented Warnock from reaching 50%, a situation that resulted in this runoff election with just Walker and Warnock on the ballot.
As far as polling goes (for what it’s worth), the race is close to being tied but Warnock has the edge, a picture that mirrors the end result on election night:
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) holds a narrow 2 percentage point lead over Republican rival Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff, according to a new survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill.
The poll released on Thursday found that 49 percent of very likely voters surveyed said they would back Warnock, compared to 47 percent who said they would vote for Walker. A separate 4 percent said they were undecided; that polling falls within the margin of error, effectively tying the two candidates.
As of late, many Republicans are becoming unhappy with Walker’s lack of urgency and decision to skip campaign events entirely over the Thanksgiving holiday week:
Herschel Walker was being swamped by negative television ads. His Democratic opponents were preparing to flood the polls for early voting as soon as doors opened. After being hit by fresh allegations of carpetbagging, he was left with just over a week to make his final appeals to voters in the runoff for Georgia’s Senate seat.
But for five days, Mr. Walker was off the campaign trail.
The decision to skip campaigning over the crucial Thanksgiving holiday weekend has Mr. Walker’s Republican allies airing frustrations and concerns about his campaign strategy in the final stretch of the overtime election against Senator Raphael Warnock.
Walker himself has a closet of skeletons as well whether it’s ex-girlfriends alleging he offered to pay for their abortions or allegations he may have exaggerated claims about the amount of money his charities have donated. On the campaign trail, Walker proclaims himself staunchly pro-life, a position that doesn’t square with some of the allegations against him.
In the end, as was the case back in 2020, when Warnock first won this seat in a special election, voters decided that he was more trustworthy than the Republican opposition, Kelly Loeffler. Warnock has benefited twice now from weak challengers despite the fact that he should be eminently beatable. After all, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp cruised to an easy re-election victory over Democrat Stacey Abrams without even breaking a sweat.
However, very little of the pro-Kemp vote trickled down to Walker. If conservative voters don’t feel like they can trust him, especially after allegations that he offered to pay for abortions and drive his various girlfriends to the clinics, then they’re more likely to simply not vote on the Senate line.
Now, with the Senate runoff the only game in town, will Republicans see the race in a different light? In some ways, since Senate control has already been decided, there seems to be even less incentive to pull the lever for Walker. On the other hand, giving Warnock another pass is basically giving Biden and the Democratic-controlled Senate a pass by giving them the advantage in committee assignments, the place where legislation advances or dies.
Georgia is basically still a toss-up with neither side closing the deal and winning the argument. In the end, if Walker wins, it will simply be that enough Republicans wanted to turn out and put something on the scoreboard following a weak midterm showing on Election Day. The momentum is still with Warnock and, in terms of likely outcome, he still has a greater than 50% chance of keeping his seat.
All of this suffices to say, I’m glad I’m not a Georgia vote.
