The midterm post-mortem is still happening and several races are yet to be decided as of now but we’re beginning to learn more about what type of voter came out last week and why things turned out the way they did. While exit polls, where voters are asked how and why they voted after they vote, are often bad at predicting or foretelling the outcome on election night, they do offer a glimpse into what actual voters think rather than randomly selected poll respondents that may or may not represent who shows up on Election Day.
From the onset of last Tuesday, it seems that the “submerged Trump voter” was much less a force than the “submerged abortion voter” when it came to deciding some tight races. As it turns out, many voters who were motivated by abortion may have been afraid to share those views which speaks to the awkward morality of the issue. You’d prefer to say you’re motivated by inflation, the economy, or even climate change rather than a desire to keep abortion legal.
Here are five things collected by The Hill to demonstrate what voters were thinking on Election Day when they rendered a “status quo” verdict on control of the federal government and several state houses:
1. Submerged Abortion Voters
As noted, exit polls provided a different story than pre-election polls where abortion was ranking lower than many expected:
Abortion was always going to have some impact on the midterms, given that the Supreme Court had overturned Roe v. Wade less than five months before Election Day.
But in the campaign’s closing stages, polls had suggested the economy was overpowering reproductive rights as a decisive factor in voters’ minds, to the GOP’s benefit.
The exit polls told a different story.
Twenty-seven percent of voters said abortion was the single most important issue in determining their vote — only just behind inflation, which was listed by 31 percent of voters.
Those who chose abortion as their top issue broke more than 3 to 1 for Democrats.
A 3 to 1 break for Democrats among one-third to one-half of the voting electorate on Election Day would’ve been difficult for even the best of candidates to overcome. Couple that fact with some weak options, like Dr. Oz in Pennysvalnnia, and Republicans simply couldn’t run up the score enough on Biden’s bad record to overcome the abortion issue in many races.
2. Trump Fatigue
While former President Donald Trump is preparing for a likely 2024 presidential announcement on Tuesday, Nov. 15, midterm voters signaled they might prefer some new options in the next presidential election cycle. Once again, exit polls showed that while Biden is unpopular, the cross-section of voters that turned out last week also found Trump unpopular:
For all of Trump’s bluster, the verdict of the exit polls was equally emphatic.
Fifty-eight percent of voters said they held an unfavorable view of the former president, against 39 percent who viewed him favorably. The vast majority of those viewing Trump unfavorably voted for Democratic candidates.
If Trump’s approval ratings mirrored Biden’s, and Trump was just as much a looming factor over the midterms as the sitting president, it’s almost as if the two canceled each other out. For all of Biden’s negatives such as his abysmal record and inability to connect with families being crushed by his inflationary policies, many voters have simply moved beyond the Trump era and voted accordingly last week.
3. Dems Losing Latinos
It’s been a trend that started over the last decade and continues to bear fruit for the GOP around the country. Latino voters seem to be abandoning Democrats for a variety of reasons and the midterms were yet another example of it:
The exit polls suggest the Latino vote continues to shift, especially among men.
Democrats carried Latino men by just 8 points over Republicans, 53 percent to 45 percent, according to the national exit poll. The margin had been 29 points as recently as the 2018 midterms.
Among Latinos overall, the Democratic advantage came in at 21 points, compared to 40 points in 2018.
Democrats were, of course, buoyed by the overall midterm results. But the problem posed by an erosion of Latino support is not going away.
This, amid a collection of bad news, was a bright spot for the Republican Party that has made tremendous inroads with Latinos. If Democrats can’t rely on better than a 20-point Latino advantage moving forward, it’s going to curtail their efforts to win races in Texas, Florida, and other southern states.
4. Dangers to Democracy?
If Democracy was on the ballot, it wasn’t clear which party it was running as. The entire argument that somehow voting the wrong way in the democratic process would mean an end to the democratic process was overblown hyperbole. Biden used it as a divisive rod to attack half the country and came off looking rather threatening himself. In the end, the issue was a wash for both parties as voters specifically motivated by “threats to democracy” split rather evenly:
According to exit polls, more than two-thirds of all voters believe democracy in America is either “somewhat threatened” or “very threatened.”
Even those voters split down the middle in terms of their voting behavior.
Precisely half the voters who said democracy was “very threatened” voted for Republican candidates, while 48 percent voted for Democrats.
The message is obvious: lots of Americans believe democracy is in danger, but they have contrasting views about where the threat is coming from.
Is democracy dead or not? Ask Biden, he seems to be the arbiter on the subject. Since his party didn’t get wiped out, I suspect he thinks democracy’s doing fine now.
5. Biden Fatigue
While some argue that Biden had a good night, it’s actually some Democratic Party platform issues that had a good night. In the end, Biden didn’t hurt his party’s chances despite his ongoing efforts to ruin the economy and dodge responsibility for every crisis he creates. Biden defied the historical odds by not losing a significant number of House seats, but voters are ready to send him into retirement:
Only two presidents since the Second World War, John F. Kennedy in 1962 and George W. Bush in 2002, have avoided losses in the Senate and held House losses below 10 seats in their first midterms.
Biden appears poised to join them.
But the exit polls suggest he should not feel too secure just yet.
A huge 67 percent of all voters don’t want Biden to seek a second term. Just 30 percent do want him to run again.
That’s not just a partisan issue. Among those who hope Biden bows out, 31 percent voted for Democrats in the House.
One thing voters seem to agree on is that they’d like to avoid a rematch of Trump-Biden in 2024. Neither candidate is particularly popular outside their respective base.
If Republicans want to understand why the red wave simmered out despite strong tailwinds and Biden’s historically bad approval, the above points serve as a roadmap. Abortion is going to continue to be an issue in every election cycle and the GOP better find a cohesive message and get out in front rather than try to avoid the discussion.
