According to new polling data from Emerson College, Republicans are now leading on the generic congressional ballot by a whopping nine points, an increase of two points from the same question in November. The trend for Democrats is worsening heading into this important midterm election year, not improving.
Emerson also found bad numbers for President Biden as well, but his disapproval has remained steady at 50% for the past few months.
The big number, however, is the congressional generic ballot where Democrats are looking at a red tsunami happening in November if these numbers hold:
Voters were asked which congressional candidate on the ballot they would be most likely to vote for in the midterms, the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate. Half of voters (50%) say they plan to vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% say they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate; 9% are undecided. This is similar to the November national poll, which had Republican candidates nationwide leading Democratic candidates 49% to 42%.
Republicans are also, unsurprisingly, leading the enthusiasm gap as well with a greater share of voters eager to register their concerns:
Republican voters express higher levels of motivation to vote than Democrats: 79% say they are very motivated to vote compared to 65% of Democratic voters. Younger voters are less motivated to vote: 57% of voters between the ages 18-29 say they are very motivated to vote, compared to 84% of voters over 50 who say they are very motivated to vote.
With young voters unmotivated, and the “over 50” crowd more motivated to vote, the demographics look to be setting up for a big GOP victory on Election Day. If Democrats can’t convince college-aged voters to care about Congress, they don’t stand a chance of retaining the House and will be less likely to hold the Senate either.
The truth is, what is there for anyone to get excited about in terms of keeping Democrats in control of Congress? They haven’t passed anything of note, and the progressive agenda has waned and wilted under the centrist Democratic wall of Sen. Joe Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. If that situation remains the same, then the Biden legislative agenda was finished before it even started, and keeping Democrats in control of the House won’t do anything to advance the ball for progressives.
Emerson also found Biden losing in 2024 to Donald Trump, a meaningless yet tasty morsel:
In a hypothetical 2024 match up, former President Donald Trump is at 48% and President Biden is at 44%: a two point change from November where Trump was ahead 45% to 43%. Both poll results are within the polls margin of error.
With each passing week, the situation looks bleaker for the country with Biden at the helm. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is continuing to spiral with America sitting on the sideline watching world events unfold. That’s not to say we should be directly involved, but more so Biden is not equipped to deescalate things despite all his tough talk against Vladimir Putin during the 2020 presidential campaign.
One other notable data point from Emerson’s numbers concern Biden’s disapproval among Hispanic voters:
Hispanic voters are most critical of Biden’s job performance: only 35% approve while 56% disapprove. White voters are more favorable of Biden’s job performance: 41% approve and 51% disapprove. Black voters are the most favorable of Biden’s job performance: 66% approve while 28% disapprove.
Democrats have been steadily losing Hispanic voters as witnessed in 2016 and 2020.
If these numbers continue to drift into the negative for Democrats by the time summer rolls around, there will be little to mitigate the impending electoral disaster perpetrated by Biden, Schumer, and Pelosi.
