It would seem unthinkable that with Democrats controlling the House, Senate, and the White House, the President’s signature campaign agenda of “Build Back Better” seems like it’s about to be gutted or scrapped entirely. With Sen. Joe Manchin at the helm, signaling he has no intention of accepting the BBB framework as-is, it would appear that Democrats are on the cusp of watching Biden’s domestic agenda go down the toilet while inflation skyrockets through the roof. The two paths are not unrelated.
The Washington Post, of all places, has begun to contemplate the reality setting in for Democrats with the possibility that the infrastructure bill, already signed by Biden, might be the only big piece of legislation Congress passes before the midterms next year:
Most pundits seem to be operating under the assumption that President Biden’s Build Back Better program will eventually become law. After all, it would be very unusual for a Congress controlled by the president’s party to reject his first major domestic proposal.
But given developments in the past week, it might be time to start seriously considering the chance that BBB is DOA.
Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) has long been the primary obstacle to BBB’s passage.
Manchin is acutely aware of his challenge representing a deep-red state that voted for Donald Trump by 30 points. His voters are directly impacted by things like rising fuel and grocery costs, and spending another $5 trillion in social programs will likely make that problem worse and provide few short-term benefits to offset the steep costs.
Manchin also continued to emphasize the risk that inflation plays in his calculus. He noted that the average West Virginian drives 50 miles a day for work, making inflation particularly problematic for his constituents. And he complained that Congress had already appropriated $5.4 trillion this year between the American Rescue Plan and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, more than what was spent in inflation-adjusted dollars for World War II and the Marshall Plan combined. Yet, “no one wants to stop and take a breath,” Manchin said. He, for one, clearly wants to take a deep breath.
Manchin is forcing congress to take a breath, and perhaps a vacation before anything is going to get done on BBB. It’s possible, perhaps, that nothing ever gets done, since progressives want everything including the kitchen sink, and Manchin isn’t prepared to offer much more than a spoon at best. The economy continues to be battered with reckless government spending, adding trillions more will alter the course of the country’s fiscal situation for decades in a negative way.
As noted, if Manchin caves on the BBB framework, his political career likely ends and his party drives off the cliff:
That’s not something Manchin is willing to do, per all his public statements. He said last week that “this is not the best job I’ve ever had . . . I’m not going to sell my soul for this.” He said he was “not a Washington Democrat,” and implied that he would leave the Democratic caucus if asked. For him to cave now would require a massive act of self-abasement that would almost surely end his long political career.
It’s possible, and this is so rare nowadays in politics, that Manchin is genuinely concerned about what Biden’s domestic spending agenda would do to the country. Rather than allow his party to score short-term points, Manchin is taking a long-term view, well beyond Biden and his own political career. What will his children and grandchildren be harnessed with adding another $5 trillion in spending to a country saddled with almost $30 trillion in debt right now?
Democrats drove themselves deep into this ditch where spending, spending, and more spending is their only answer for every problem facing the country. Nothing ever needs to be reformed or fixed without quadrupling the budget and spending more. In turn, the federal government will grow tentacles into more facets of life, such as universal preschool across the board. Think that program would ever be taken away after millions of families come to depend on it for childcare? Not likely.
Manchin knows this is a one-way street. The Build Back Better Act will cost more than advertised, cause more unintended consequences, and be impossible to roll back or curtail in the future. It’s an all-or-nothing proposal that he’s not ready to join.
If Democrats don’t come back to reality, such as an ability to do basic math, Manchin is likely to let Biden’s domestic agenda die in the name of fiscal restraint. Democrats can cry if they want to, and progressives will assuredly weep tears of victimhood, but they will have their own greed in government spending to blame.
UPDATE
Reports indicate that Senate Democrats are shelving the BBB agenda until after the new year:
Senate Democrats’ chances to pass President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better agenda by the end of the year appear to be dropping fast. And they could be turning their attention to making a renewed push on voting rights instead.
NBC News reported on Wednesday that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is planning on punting the $1.75 trillion social spending and climate package into 2022, and may instead pursue a final push to pass voting rights legislation.
That could be the game for BBB. Taking a step back could be good or bad, but ultimately when something like this gets shelved, it’s very, very hard to revive it without rehashing all the previous issues. That doesn’t mean Democrats won’t try, but Manchin seems to be prevailing, and time is on his side.
