Former President Donald Trump is planning a rally for the first-in-the-nation state of Iowa in the coming months fueling further talk of a potential 2024 presidential run. While there is no official date yet for the Iowa rally, further moves by Trump, including the hiring of campaign operates in the Hawkeye State, have pointed toward a possible third run for the presidency.
Anytime a politician makes an out-of-the-way stop in Iowa, it usually signals at least a tacit interest in a presidential run if not merely to test the waters and get a feel for how a candidate’s message may be received by early caucus voters.
According to reports, Trump is not the only potential 2024 Republican candidate who has scheduled a visit or already visited Iowa this year:
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) traveled to Iowa last month to campaign with Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) at a fundraiser in Fayette. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) also stumped with Hinson at her re-election campaign launch event last week, while Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) visited the state on Monday and Tuesday.
Others who have been floated as potential candidates have also made the trip, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R ).
“This has got to be one of the busiest years in the first year of a caucus cycle that we’ve seen,” said Iowa GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann, who met with Rubio Monday night at a state party event in Clear Lake, Iowa.
There is no coincidence to see names like Cotton, Cruz, and Rubio on that list. Furthermore, it’s almost assured that Nikki Haley will be running in 2024 as well, along with Kristi Noem of South Dakota. The only big name missing at the moment is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, though his time is currently focused on COVID-19 in his home state and an eye toward winning his own re-election in 2022.
Former Vice President Mike Pence could also be considered a possible contender, but his status with MAGA faithful seems to have waned after the 2020 election.
As for Trump’s upcoming Iowa rally, there also seems to be several moves on the ground that do hint more strongly at a presidential run:
Behind the scenes, however, Trump has started to lay the groundwork for a bid. Earlier this month, he hired two operatives in Iowa — Eric Branstad and Alexander Latcham — to cover a “broad political portfolio focused on advancing Save America’s goals of electing strong, Pro-Trump, America First conservatives,” according to a spokesperson.
Trump mentioned his plans to visit Iowa during an appearance on the right wing Todd Starnes radio show on Monday. Multiple Trump aides confirmed plans are in the works. Whether or not Trump decides to enter the race will also not have any bearing on the Iowa GOP caucus. When asked if the caucus will still be open even if Trump decides to run, Iowa GOP spokesperson Kollin Crompton said “yes, absolutely.”
It’s interesting that Politico floated the question of whether the 2024 Iowa GOP caucus would even be canceled if Trump decides to run. The implication seems to be that Trump could run, once again, as the incumbent, and why would any of these states bother to hold caucuses or primaries if the incumbent is running? The idea that Trump would go unchallenged seems too unrealistic considering the crop of other GOP contenders in the wings waiting to have their moment.
However, recent polling from July still shows Trump would at least start out at the top of the field among Republicans surveyed nationwide:
A survey released Tuesday from the John Bolton Super PAC found 46 percent of likely general election voters would back Trump being the party’s nominee—the highest level of support of any potential presidential candidate polled by more than 30 points.
In second was Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had 13 percent support. DeSantis has been praised by Republicans for his approach to the COVID-19 pandemic, as Florida lifted restrictions before many other states.
Former Vice President Mike Pence ranked third in the hypothetical survey with 6 percent support among likely voters.
The 2024 GOP field will continue to take shape in the coming months and well into 2022 and 2023. This far out from a presidential year is usually filled with visits and a sort of “exploratory” phase where candidates make contacts and form bonds with local and state politicians who they hope to tap later for assistance if they choose to launch a full-fledged presidential campaign.
However, with Trump still in the mix, the GOP field will be a waiting game for some candidates who may decide it’s not worth the fight if he decides to run. On the other hand, if Trump’s 2024 buzz is all tease rather than action, none of these would-be candidates want to get caught flat-footed.
Check our 2024 presidential candidate page for a more thorough list of other possible GOP contenders.
