The way this impeachment trial is heading, acquittal seems like an all-but assured outcome despite a dismal opening day for the former President’s attorneys. With 67 Senators needed for a conviction, and the high water mark sitting around 56, at most, it seems improbable and almost impossible to move that many more Republicans into the conviction column.
In fact, if the conviction doesn’t happen, the chances that Donald Trump is barred from running for federal office again will less and less likely:
The Senate voted 56-44 to proceed to the first-ever trial of a former president, rejecting his defense lawyers’ argument that Trump was beyond the reach of the Senate after having left the White House on Jan. 20.
Democrats hope to disqualify Trump from ever again holding public office, but Tuesday’s outcome suggested they face long odds. Only six Republican senators joined Democrats to vote in favor of allowing the trial to take place, far short of the 17 needed to secure a conviction.
Oddsmakers are taking notice as well, and the conviction outcome seems the least likely course for this impeachment unless something drastically changes:
The over/under for conviction votes is 54.5, according to SportsBettingDime, BetOnline.ag and SportsBetting.ag.
Because that number falls so far under the 67-vote threshold, oddsmakers view chances of a conviction as slim.
Odds of the Senate failing to convict Trump fall at -2500, implying a 96.15% chance of an acquittal, according to SportsBettingDime. It’s even less likely according to SportsBetting.ag, whose -3000 odds imply a 96.77% chance of an acquittal.
Trump’s best odds for acquittal can be found at BetOnline.ag, which gives the former commander-in-chief an 98% chance of evading conviction.
So, what happens in the likelihood that President Trump is acquitted in the Senate impeachment trial? What becomes of his political future? In some regards, Democrats attempting a second impeachment which was sure to be doomed in the Senate may be playing right into Trump’s hands:
As happened in his first impeachment, Trump could be acquitted by the Senate. This vote to acquit wouldn’t mean much in practical terms, since he is no longer president. But it would likely serve as another rallying cry for Trump and his base just as the previous acquittal was.
An acquittal would also mean that the Senate would not vote to bar him from running for federal office. So Trump could, in theory, make a run for the presidency in 2024.
What about being censured by the Senate? That could happen too, but it’s entirely meaningless and nonbinding when it comes to any legal authority or consequences:
The consequence of censure is nonbinding, which means there are no legal ramifications. But it’s a formal mode of disciplining a public official, such as a US president. And it serves as a kind of public shaming.
There are a handful of lawmakers who have pushed for censure. Sens. Tim Kaine, a Democrat from Virginia; Chris Coons, a Democrat from Delaware; and Maine’s Susan Collins have floated this idea.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York hasn’t shut the door on censure if Democrats can’t get a conviction.
Senate Democrats could try the censure route if the conviction fails, but what if the censure fails too? Again, with the outcome of the impeachment trial likely ending in acquittal, and a censure vote also an uphill climb, Democrats will eventually decide to cut their losses and move on. The impeachment trial was more about placating a base than exacting justice, and the Democratic power brokers know this as well.
For Trump, an acquittal without being barred from public office will inevitably open the door for a return to public political life, and a likely vendetta of primarying some of his Republican critics, like Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY).
