Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg pulled off a delegate victory in Iowa, and then a strong unexpected second-place finished in New Hampshire a week later. After that, though, the polls and battlegrounds are much less favorable to him, despite his early triumphs and headlines. In any case, it doesn’t appear that he will challenge Sen. Bernie Sanders for the top spot in Nevada, a scenario that seemed more likely after the New Hampshire results. On the contrary, Nevada could be shaping up as a battle between Sanders, Biden, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, with Tom Steyer tossed in for good measure.
Whether Biden can actually pull himself back from the brink with a respectable finish in Nevada remains to be seen, but here is the latest polling from the Silver State:
Las Vegas Review-Journal Nevada Democratic Caucus Poll
Conducted Feb 11-13 | Source
- Bernie Sanders – 25%
- Joe Biden – 18%
- Elizabeth Warren – 13%
- Tom Steyer – 11%
- Pete Buttigieg – 10%
- Amy Klobuchar – 10%
It must be noted that this poll started collecting on Feb. 11, the day of the New Hampshire primary, which means some responses were recorded before the final results.
Sanders is still in the best position among the splintered field, but Joe Biden still looks like a contender. It’s also possible, though, that more polling conducted entirely after the New Hampshire results have sunk-in could show a decline in his support.
Depending on how Biden does in Nevada and South Carolina will set the stage for Super Tuesday on March 3.
At the moment, Biden is still holding down his lead in South Carolina, but the numbers are not what they once were:
East Carolina University South Carolina Primary Poll
Conducted Feb 12-13 | Source
- Joe Biden – 28%
- Bernie Sanders – 20%
- Tom Steyer – 14%
- Pete Buttigieg – 8%
- Elizabeth Warren – 7%
- Amy Klobuchar – 7%
- Tulsi Gabbard – 1%
Mike Bloomberg also enjoyed some support in the South Carolina poll at 6%, but his name will not be on the ballot there since he either didn’t file or missed the deadline.
Twenty-eight percent isn’t amazing when compared to some of Biden’s previous numbers in the state that were hitting the high thirties, flirting with forty percent support, but it’s not a total collapse, yet.
Biden still has a chance to focus on the states where the demographics are much more favorable and the outcome could finally be some good news for his campaign.
If Sanders manages to win in Nevada, a feat which seems likely given his momentum from the New Hampshire and the current state of the field, then it’s possible his South Carolina numbers could improve. Of the two Palmetto State polls in the past two months, Sanders sits at 20% in both. He’ll need to edge above that and hope Biden’s support softens somewhat to be able to build on his floor of support.
If the hat trick for Sanders were to occur with victories in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, then Super Tuesday is an open book and Sanders would have the best momentum heading into a voting day where more than a dozen states head to the polls.
The Nevada caucuses take place on Saturday, Feb. 22. The South Carolina primary is held on Saturday, Feb. 29.