There are some clear tell-tale signs when politicians are gearing up to run for president. Most notable, they’ll probably start loving states they never cared about – like Iowa and New Hampshire. Furthermore, they may release a book which outlines their beliefs, background, and childhood upbringing. Then look for magazine features in publications that cater to suburban moms to present the “softer side” of said politician.
FiveThirtyEight has attempted to compile a list of these activities to figure out which Democrats, and possibly at least one Republican, are already gearing up to run for President in 2020. So far, the list is an eclectic mix of reality TV stars, billionaire tech entrepreneurs, Democratic governors, Democratic Senators and Representatives, a former Vice President, and John Kasich, the Republican Governor from Ohio.
Here is the list of criteria from FiveThirtyEight:
We looked at seven signs that indicated a person might run for president:
1. Making at least one visit to Iowa for a political event;
2. Making at least one visit to New Hampshire for a political event (We should note here that this story would not be possible without the work of Eric Appleman, a journalist who runs a site called Democracy in Action that since 2001 has tracked nearly every appearance that a prospective or declared candidate has made to Iowa and New Hampshire.);
3.Making at least one visit to South Carolina for a political event;
4.Participating in an interview for at least one feature story in any of a few large national magazines that are followed by political junkies;
5.Making at least one campaign appearance — outside of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — for his or her party’s candidates for governor or U.S. Senate;
6. Releasing a book in the time between the 2012 elections and the 2014 midterms or reaching an agreement to write a book that would be released during the campaign cycle;
7. Being included in at least one early national poll of the race that was conducted by either media outlets or polling companies.
Most of those names also appear on our compiled list of possible 2020 candidates, though people like Mark Zuckerberg, Mark Cuban, and Oprah Winfrey aren’t included on our list – yet. Celebrities often are asked about a presidential run, though few if any want to actually leave the comfort of their private lives to step into the public spotlight like Donald Trump. However, with Trump’s ascension, some of them might have started to give it serious thought since name recognition and celebrity can’t be underestimated when it comes to national elections.
Seeing John Kasich’s name list is interesting, though it’s very doubtful he would actually try to mount a serious campaign to unseat an incumbent president within his own party. Still though, maybe in the back of his mind he’s hoping Trump’s approval numbers are so bad in 2020 that the party will be begging him to step in and save the day.