Tuesday’s the big day. There are warnings that White Supremacists will try to intimidate minority voters. Then, there are fears that Russia will find ways to disrupt things (such as shutting down the electrical grid, or the Internet). Al Qaeda and ISIS have also suggested that they may bomb American cities. There are all kinds of worries, but let’s try to ignore all that. Let’s look at election night, itself.

Karl Rove gave his opinion of what to watch for in the Wall Street Journal.

While votes are still being cast, the TV networks will comment on exit polls, though they won’t reveal what the surveys show about the head-to-head matchup. The exits can be spectacularly wrong—they predicted a John Kerry victory in 2004. . .

Two things to look for in the exits: First, how is Mr. Trump doing among white voters? His strategy requires grabbing a higher percentage of whites than Mitt Romney’s 59% and boosting their share of the turnout above 2012’s 72%. College-educated whites traditionally vote Republican, but Mr. Trump has struggled with them. Will he match Mr. Romney’s 51% among all college grads?

Second, how is Mrs. Clinton doing among minorities and millennials? Her strategy calls for replicating President Obama’s 2012 coalition. That year African-Americans were 13% of turnout, and 93% went for Mr. Obama; Hispanics were 10% of turnout, and 71% voted for him; and millennials were 19% of turnout, 60% of whom supported the president.

Actual votes will be reported beginning at 6 p.m., Eastern Standard Time, when polls in parts of Indiana and Kentucky close. . . Watch for how each party’s vote has shifted since 2012. Although Mr. Trump is likely to win Indiana and Kentucky, comparing his margin to Mr. Romney’s might indicate what’s happening nationally.

These early results could provide important clues about the election’s direction. Watch for how each party’s vote has shifted since 2012. . .

The second clue will be changes in turnout. Is it larger or smaller than 2012? What about in counties with high percentages of African-Americans, Latinos, millennials and educated whites? These trends will be especially important in the four swing states that report early.

Florida is this election’s most important battleground. Democrats have carried 18 states and the District of Columbia in all of the past six presidential contests. If Mrs. Clinton wins the 242 electoral votes from this “Blue Wall,” she needs only Florida’s 29 to take the White House. Mr. Trump must win Florida to keep open his path to the presidency. . .

Ohio, with 18 electoral votes, is this year’s second-most important state. No Republican has ever won the White House without the Buckeye State. . . The next most important states are North Carolina and Virginia, with a combined 28 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, NBC also offered a “tick-tock” time-release viewer’s guide.

DURING THE DAY: All about turnout

Yes, there is no greater cliché in American politics than the solemn pronouncement that the results of an election “will all come down to turnout.” But just because it’s all-too-familiar doesn’t mean it’s not mostly true. . .

Long lines in diverse and highly-educated areas of key swing states (think Miami, Charlotte and the Philadelphia and Atlanta suburbs) would be generally good signs for Clinton. Reports of crowds in whiter, more blue-collar areas (the Rust Belt) could be a sign that Trump is mobilizing more of his own base.

5 p.m. ET: Exit polls. . .The exit polls provide the most complete picture of voter attitudes on Election Day. . .

7 p.m. ET: The first results: Now it gets really interesting! Six states have a FINAL poll close at 7 p.m.: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Here are some key things to watch:

Positive early numbers in Virginia would be a great sign for Hillary Clinton. . . For a good early indicator of how the Trump effect may be factoring into down-ballot races, keep an eye on VA-10. . . Georgia. . .Look at how big minority turnout here was, and keep an eye on county results in Atlanta’s affluent suburbs, where Trump could have turned off the high education white voters. . .

7:30 p.m. ET: Two biggies: North Carolina and Ohio: In the Tarheel State, keep an eye on population centers around Raleigh and Charlotte. . . Ohio’s relatively low share of college-educated white voters could make it a ripe pickup for Trump. Watch Clinton’s margins in key swing areas like Hamilton County. . .

8 p.m. ET: Florida, and more Clinton firewall states: More than a dozen states have final poll closings now, but here are the most important ones: Florida, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. . . Florida’s famed I-4 corridor. . . Philadelphia suburbs — places like Bucks and Chester Counties. . .

9 p.m. ET: Watch the Rust Belt — and demographics are destiny in Arizona? If Clinton is headed towards a historic sweep, we’ll have a better idea of how big it is once we hit the 9 p.m. poll closings. If Trump is going to take things down to the wire, we’ll know by watching the Rust Belt, too. . .

Wisconsin and Michigan. . .Trump will almost certainly have to flip one of these blue states red to get to 270 electoral votes. . . Colorado. . .Watch whether Latino turnout approaches 2008 and 2012 levels early, and keep an eye on the split among younger voters.

10 p.m. ET: Suspense in… Utah? . . . if Evan McMullin bests Trump and Clinton in Utah, he would be the first third party candidate to win a state since 1968. . . Iowa, which could be Trump’s best swing state of the bunch.

11 p.m. ET: Lights out in every state but Alaska: The five states that close at 11 p.m. ET — California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon and Washington — are all solid Republican or Democratic states. . .

65 COMMENTS

  1. The Democrats will find anyway to make a false flag happen to stop the election. Hilary and her camp are liars and they hate this country. They love to rape kids and take money from terrorist country’s. The Democrats will not win and when Trump wins there will be plenty of people that will be put into Federal Prison for there crimes they have committed against this wonderful nation we live in.

  2. Even if things break her way and Clinton happens to win, she will make history two ways. She will be the first female president and after she is impeached will be a member of the first presidential couple to be both impeached.?

    Think about America, do you want this circus to go on with her IMPEACHMENT? I realize that some of the people who are sucking off of the PUBLIC TEAT will vote for Clinton even if she took of her shoes and showed her CLOVEN HOOVES. They don’t want anything interrupting their welfare check, especially an inconvenience like WORK!!!

    Trump for PRESIDENT 2016.?

    • Religious zealotry, hate towards those less fortunate than themselves and conspiracy theory from a Republican? There’s a novelty. #sarcasm

      • Religious zealotry? You are defending the Anti Christ? Billary probably gives the devil a bad name, I think that is why all Satan worshippers are voting against her.

        You mention those Less Fortunate. It is true that some people have fallen on hard times and hopefully they will with assistance work themselves out of their situation. There are however those who are perennial MOOCHERS. We are talking generation after generation of WELFARE BABIES. It was Bill Clinton himself during his presidency that passed laws limiting welfare for unwed mothers, whose sole purpose in life was to have one child after another she couldn’t support. Oh I forgot to mention that she had children from as many different men as possible. Also didn’t Bubba curtail welfare for GENERATIONAL families. Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t there a family somewhere in New Jersey which had been on welfare for 6 generations?

        I myself once had a tenant in one of my rentals, who was on government assistance. This guy paid 1/10 of his rent and the state government paid the rest for him. In the mid 1990’s this guy had a computer system with peripherals and such that would put most scientific labs to shame. I for sure couldn’t afford his setup.

        Once I told him of a job opening close by to where he was renting. He turned up his nose at the job and told me he wouldn’t work for less than $20 / hour. To be subtle, this man was as DUMB AS A FENCE POST. I myself worked in a high position in IT and I didn’t make that much money.

        Don’t be so sanctimonious and open your eyes to the world around you.

        Trump for PRESIDENT 2016.?

        • “Don’t be sanctimonious”, says the religious zealot spouting AntiChrist and Satan nonsense. Take your second rate plagiarized mythology elsewhere. It does not belong in adult conversation regarding reality. No evidence for your indoctrinated, lunatic ravings and salivations regarding sky daddies and underground infernal boogey men.

          • Yes SANCTIMONIOUS. LIBTURDS and their ilk of which you are one think only you have life experiences. Newsflash everyone, unless they live in a cave have experiences that are unique to them, probably even a miscreant like you.?

            What you call plagiarized mythology, happens to be important to many people. If you want to go through life thinking that you are the END ALL AND BE ALL, good for you. But do not mock the beliefs of others because they don’t align with yours.

            We will see next Tuesday who has lunatic ravings. Is it those who support a candidate who claims that he will do the right thing. Or will it be those who follow an untrustworthy, lying, phony, vile, reprehensible POS aka as Billary.?

            Trump for PRESIDENT 2016.?

            • I am not attacking your belief system because it is different, but because it is delusional and quite obviously false to reasonable people who do not suffer from religious indoctrination into the magical mythical adventures of dust man and rib woman. Lol. You may believe in infernal boogeymen and a deity who created them and is incapable of defeating them, but reasonable people do not. Lol. Laughable.

              And your insults are of no consequence and merely illustrate your infantile nature. Very typically Republican. I mean, “libturd”. What are you? Nine years old?

              If you have any reasonable evidence for your biblical claims, then I would be delighted to see it.

              And please don’t tell me you imagine Trump to be Christian? If an AntiChrist were any form of reality, then he embodies it with his divisiveness, hate, racism, misogyny and xenophobia. Mocking the disabled… How low is that?

            • Where are you from?? YOU are seemingly delusional saying that reasonable people do not believe in Christianity. You think you are smart but YOU are infantile. If you dont believe in Christianity, why do you want biblical evidence for it???

            • If Christianity were reasonable, then evidence would exist for its extraordinary claims. Reasonable people demand reasonable evidence for such claims, rather than simply accepting their indoctrination or cultural bias.

              Republican ideology is based on inherent selfishness which is very ANTI Christian, in fact, according to scripture.

            • Do you mean reasonable people WITH A STICK UP THEIR ASS? I don’t care what you believe in or don’t believe in. That I was indoctrinated in a religion and choose to follow it into adulthood, should be NO SKIN OFF YOUR NOSE. That being the case why do you persist in mocking what you don’t understand? Or is it that in reality you are envious of those who believe in God, seeing that you probably pray at the altar of KIM KARDASHIAN!!!?

              Both Clinton and Trump have warts. Nobody can live on this Earth for seven decades and be without sin. Trump’s faults have been as a private citizen. Clinton on the other hand has committed all of her sins in PUBLIC OFFICE. Regardless what you think of Trump are you going to vote for Clinton to SCREW THE COUNTRY OVER from yet another PUBLIC office? If you are you have absolutely no path to redemption.?

              Trump for PRESIDENT 2016.?

            • Envious of the deluded? No. Pity and disappointment in the human race. Yes. And the fact that there are people as deluded as you spouting hateful UNCHRISTIAN fire and brimstone based on zero evidence. That mindset affects everyone. Belief is the worst decision making process. You use reason when it is important. Next time you are sick, just pray for a cure. Why bother with evidence based science? Just pray and stop stealing resources from those who actually live in reality.

            • Are you completely insane? When during our back and forth have I spewed hateful FIRE and BRIMSTONE? I have said that your stance on religion is not something I would adhere to. I have also ridiculed you, but then again you have done the same to me.

              As far as you pitying the human race for their various religious beliefs, I think you have it wrong. It is they that pity your pathetic attempt at discrediting religion. Belief is a personal thing, probably something you can’t wrap your POINTY HEAD around.

              Finally I have been sick in the past. Some afflictions were worse than others. At my most direct times, I indeed did pray to God to regain my health and my family did likewise.along with

            • You do realize that prayer has been shown repeatedly to have no effect, right? You are the one using expressions like cloven hooves, Satan and Antichrist.

            • How can you say that prayer doesn’t work? What possible way can it be measured? God hears everyone’s prayers. Are all prayers answered, perhaps not in the way we wish but they are.

              When I mentioned CLOVEN HOOVES, the Anti Christ and Satan, I forgot to add another name that will make all who hear it think of pure evil. Of course that is CLINTON!!!?

            • Yeah, or if you pray for a severed limb to grow back either. Every single person on the planet could hold a mass pray-in to end world hunger and sickness and natural disaster and it STILL would go unheeded. There’s a good reason for that, of course. Because you are simply talking to yourself and that achieves precisely nothing.

              Somehow believers think this monstrosity intervenes in people who are dying, but he’s mysteriously incapable when it comes to amputees or ridding the world of evil (that he is alleged to have created in the first place). Utter nonsense. Simply mythologies to scare children into doing as they’re told rather than using their innate morality and sense of fairness, equality and justice. Real human moral values do not require fairytales to frighten children or control the behavior of adults. We do so perfectly well without such nonsense.

              But, of course, if you have a Republican brain, then you struggle with thinking in terms of nuance and grey areas. It’s all about black and white thinking in absolutes which simply do not regularly exist in reality.

              I await your special pleading fallacy whenever you’re ready.

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tpL1K8ZqrU

              http://whywontgodhealamputees.com/

            • There are people who think they can manipulate God through prayer–that if they pray, they’ll get what they want. This is technically called belief in “magic.” In a magic religion, humans think they can change the universe by words or actions, rituals, or sacrifices. Humans are in control.

              The kind of prayer that actually works is something like, “Lord, give me the courage and confidence to achieve my goals.” In that case, the non-believer would see it as simply self-talk that builds one’s self. The believer would see it as God answering the prayer by girding the petitioner for battle.

            • Good point, however they would see it that way, but it would still be objectively false to anyone else in any reasonable sense. Self help or a personal pep talk would never equate to divine intervention. Not without reasonable evidence. If you pray for wishy washy outcomes, like hoping the sun will rise tomorrow, or that you feel better about yourself in the future, then you will generally guarantee success, so that would be intellectually dishonest of the one doing the praying to state that their imagined god had any involvement. It’s like saying Nostradamus made predictions by reverse engineer poetic vagueries to modern events and specific details. Or that saying the Koran or Bible made predictions about later scientific discoveries. They don’t. They simply don’t.

            • You’re being dogmatic. What do you say about phenomena such as examples of documented “miracle cures” for which science has no answers?

            • There are no “miracle” cures that we are aware of. People sometimes get better for various reasons. It happens. In order to prove such a thing as miracle cure, one would have to prove a deity exists firstly, then prove divine intervention via some form of supernatural means by this entity. To my knowledge, no one has ever been able to make this proposition falsifiable and hence it can be disregarded until evidence is provided.

              If you assume miracles, without first investigating the reasonable possibilities, then THAT is being dogmatic and closed minded. I am perfectly willing to look at evidence where it is given, but I could equally say it was magic invisible purple bunnies that live in the gaps between reality and they grant wishes to people who are ill randomly. There’s no more evidence for this proposition than miracle cures, but it is equally unfalsifiable as suggesting “miracle cures” or that prayer works, when it has been shown scientifically in multiple studies to be no more effective than mere placebo.

              In fact, prayer can be negative in influence too, especially for cases
              of people in hospital because they then imagine themselves to be worse
              off than they are due people praying for them.

              Simply because we don’t always have all the answers does not pave the way for argument from ignorance fallacy, I’m afraid. That’s not being dogmatic. That’s being skeptical, logical and perfectly reasonable.

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T69TOuqaqXI

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKA4w2O61Xo

            • Oh, BTW what “sins”? Clinton has been cleared yet again of any wrongdoing. Lol. No smoke, no fire, just Republican delusional conspiracy theory. Based on zero evidence, just like your delusional belief system.

            • The Wicked Witch has for the meanwhile dodged another bullet. How can anyone with any sense at all put their trust behind a candidate so obviously flawed??

              You seem to mock organized religion, is that because you are a HIGH PRIEST of the Church of Clinton?

          • Where are you originally from anyway? And word to the wise you cant vote… that is against the law and you will loose your permeant residency status in Hamilton, MS.

  3. It would be nice if there could be more civil dialogue in the comments. My question to Trump supporters would be, what do you believe Trump will do for you and your family? What makes you believe it? Do you have any concern that his challenges with the truth will extend into his presidency and policies? Trump is clearly not a Republican in the traditional sense, so do you really feel comfortable that you know what you are getting and it will move our country in a positive direction?

    • What do you believe Trump will do for you and your family?
      I believe that he will stop the influx of refugees, until we can properly vet them.
      I believe he will finish what he started in Mexico, and continue the conversation of we writing the NAFTA agreement. This will help us get our manufacturing jobs back.
      I believe he will Build that Wall, but with the help of the Mexican Government. They do not want us supplying the weapons and cash to the Cartels.
      I believe he will slow down the influx of heroin and cocaine and a ton of other horrible drugs. Watch Border Wars on TV.
      I believe this can also help stop the young woman from being raped on the Frontera.
      I believe he will disassociate from the TPP. He will try to keep manufacturing jobs here and bring them back. They employ both educated and uneducated citizens.
      I believe that he will straighten out our economy. To just take care of us. We need to stay away from so many foreign problems. They need to take care of their own. Rather it be a civil war or whatever. They need to stop becoming pawns. Create a democracy and fight for their nation.
      What makes you believe it?
      Well he has been saying that for a really long time. He had been asked to run many many times… But he liked making money. lol. He told OPRAH, if things ever got that bad, I would run.
      Do you have any concern that his challenges with the truth will extend into his presidency and policies?
      Well the fact checkers will call it a lie if he gets his numbers wrong by 1. Even if it is mostly right. They have been known and proven to be extremely biased and were condemned for it in the past. Are things taken out of content? Absolutely. If you get a chance research their considered lies. It is shocking to see the biased.
      Trump is clearly not a Republican in the traditional sense, so do you really feel comfortable that you know what you are getting and it will move our country in a positive direction?
      Well I know he will because he says He loves his COUNTRY every day. He wants to make us great again, not the Middle East, Mexico, or Iran. He wants to take care of US. Do you really think it is wise to bring in so many refugees, when we have problems with our own? We have men looking for work, good work. Our pay needs to increase not in the retail industry the manufacturing ones. They are the ones that pay medical and 401ks, that support a family.

      YOUR TURN 🙂

      • My main concern with the response is, it is just Trump’s talking points. There is no meat on the bone. Trump never gets into sufficient detail. When he does provide details, experts in those areas expose the flaws in his approach. He does not have well formed policies, which leaves even his supporters guessing what he will really do.

        In regards to the refugees, they are already vetted thoroughly by various agencies. It is a myth to suggest they are not vetted. Please remember they are refugees. They did not ask to be refugees. Conditions in their country are horrific.

        The idea of getting our manufacturing jobs back has several issues. First, manufacturing is not a great area to disrupt markets over. Manufacturing jobs are being lost and will continue to be lost to automation. Taking a stand on a shrinking job sector is short sighted at best. If we do get manufacturing jobs back, who is going to shoulder that cost now that manufacturing costs more….the consumer.

        He may build the wall, but I don’t think this is the best way to address the issue of illegals aliens. Personally I think a system which places steep fines on employers who hire undocumented workers would be more effective and preserve our image internationally.

        I can’t say I have read the TPP so I can’t speak specifically about it, but the Asia markets are growing fast, and it would be foolish of us not to establish trade agreements.

        The idea that the fact checkers are biased is just patently false. Many fact checking agencies have fact checked Trump. The fact checkers agree that Trump tells more lies than any politician in history. To believe otherwise is just willful blindness to the truth.

        • Thanks for answering back.
          First let me address the manufacturing jobs. I love this point the most. 😉
          Your absolutely right, we have been trying to automate the process for a long time. PLC programmable logic controllers, we incorporate pneumatic and hydraulic systems and do frankly amazing things. But see this requires an engineering dept, mechanics, electrician, housekeeping. And still you would need sanitation and if it involves any amount of water or waste then you need a wastewater treatment plant that is qualified to run it. You still would need a supervisor both maintenance and production. In the front office we have accounting, Shipping and receiving, sales, and a R&D dept.
          But the most important thing, to me at least, is the quality, the EPA, OSHA,and FDA approved products. EPA because we are protecting the air, water, and soil, we follow rules feared to protecting the planet and our water supply. This is why it is dangerous to drink water in some parts of Mexico or why face masks are needed in China at times.
          The FDA protects our food. (I went to the Dollar store the other day and they had strawberries from China. Lol.) It protects the bacteria levels, rodent droppings, and cleanliness of the plant. Some actually have offices in the plants!!!!
          And OSHA this protects the workers rather they work in the front office or in the back. They protect everyone.
          See sir, we are a great country. We care about our manufacturing jobs. These jobs are only for ADULTS no kids allowed. They provide healthcare and decent wages with retirement plans. And they are leaving.

        • The refugees, well I’m sorry we will have to disagree. On this point also. It is a wonderful thing to help someone in need. It gives you a great feeling. I love to do it for that selfish reason. I was for a long time the go to sister… Your in trouble, need a loan, need advice go to sister… Well shoot I ended up broke house always full, could not get them to grow up, heck they were married and still thought they could run to me… Heck no. It took me time to stop and it took some hard times for them to stay gone and act grown…. But they did. And they did well. See that is why I am now on the “teach a man to fish” instead of feed him for a day.
          But first we need to put the time in our country to stock our pond. Then we will thru charity and knowledge help others.

        • As far as the wall, it has been passed already. Senator Clinton helped pass it. True story.
          We need a physical barrier to deter crime but a beautiful gates to let good people thru. That is what he said. I want you to take some time and watch Border Wars on TV. We are constantly facing an influx of drugs, human trafficking, and crime. It is the truth, and as much as I would love to say all US citizens are great people, I can’t say all Mexicans or Guatemalans are. That is just not true. What is true is that we need to again take care of us first. Sounds selfish, but it isn’t.

        • Not this trade agreement. Trust me. If I get some time I will research some of the key parts. I stopped following it once Bernie Sanders made Hillary say no to it after she called it a gold standard. Bernie was right, but now it seems that Obama met with Kasich about trying to drum up support even though nothing was changed. That was a few weeks ago. I was distracted by the wiki leaks and all the other stuff. Crap, I hope they don’t sneak that in one the election.

  4. Trump is the best choice for President. Only he will stop the influx of refugees. Only he will bring back manufacturing jobs. He will have a team of advisers who will help him to achieve his policy promises to the country. He is committed to making America great again and he will do that. He can be trusted with the economy and the safety of America. He will pursue positive working relationships with world leaders.

    Trump for President 2016.

    • I guess you don’t mind that he is a racist, misogynist xenophobe then? Or are you merely another Russian troll, I wonder?

  5. Isabel, do you speak a language other than English? You bear a name which seems so common in Brazil.

    IMHO, Mr. Trump will succeed in running the country as fairly as many other presidents around the world did theirs.

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