Since the media focuses so much attention on the “horse race” aspect of the presidential race, it’s hard not to get caught up in it. “Who’s ahead?” “Who’s gaining?” “Who’s doping?” “Who’s better in the mud?” You get the picture. And of course, who’s betting how much on whom? We like to watch the odds in the presidential gambling market.

We have mentioned that John Stossel helped set up a rather sophisticated site about how the gambling houses are rating the candidates’ chances. It’s important to watch, they say, because these are not idle opinions, nor partisan rationalizations—this site shows how people are “putting their money where their mouth is.”

Currently, Hillary Clinton is considered the overwhelming favorite, with a 76.6% chance of winning, to Donald Trump’s 20.2% chance. What that means is that if you bet a dollar on The Donald right now, you’ll get five bucks back if he wins in November. I say “currently,” and “right now,” because the general election odds are updated every five minutes. In the primary season, it was amazing to watch how the candidates went up and down from day to day. Likewise, the betting on vice presidential choices.

These odds are just “if the election were held today,” and if I were a betting man, I’d bet the odds will get more and more even going toward election day. In other words, if you’re a Trump fan, put your money down now!

We bring this up now, because they just added a new market. Now, you can bet on how individual states will go in the Electoral College. Here’s the map and link.

betting chance of winning

If you go to the site, just hover over any state to see how the betting is right now. For instance, the betting is that Trump will take Oklahoma with an 92.5% probability, Arkansas with 90.7, and Alabama with 90.5. Meanwhile, Hillary is expected to take Maryland with a 95.5% probability, New York and Massachusetts with 93.5%, and California with 94.5%.

UTAH?
Of course, these are just what the gamblers think. And they could be wrong. Utah is a good example. It’s the home of the Church of Latter Day Saints (Mormon). Their favorite son, Mitt Romney, has an ongoing feud with Donald Trump. The rumor is that Romney will endorse Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson. Yet, even without that, the latest polls show one point difference, each, between Trump, Clinton, and Johnson.

Clinton is making a real push for Utah, and newcomber, Evan McMullen, the new NeverTrump Republican candidate, who just announced his run this week, is Mormon, and will also be campaigning hard there. There’s a possibility Romney could endorse him, instead. Regardless, Trump is running even with Clinton and Johnson, even without the endorsement—and without McMullen in the mix.

If I were a betting man, I’d bet against Trump there, whom gamblers currently give a 71.5% chance of winning Utah’s Electoral Votes.

NO BETTING
Many states are considered such a foregone conclusion that there is no market for them. They include Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Alaska, Hawaii, and West Virginia. All but Hawaii are Trump Territory.

SWING STATES
According to Politico, there are eleven swing states. These are states that are not taken for granted by either side. Let’s look at what the polls are saying. Then, we’ll look at the betting odds.

swing states 2016

The averages for each state include the five most-recent reliable public polls, as determined by POLITICO. This excludes polls conducted entirely over landline phones (which don’t survey the nearly half of Americans who only own a cell phone), but includes surveys conducted by partisan pollsters. For each survey, if the poll includes ballot tests both including and excluding third-party candidates, the data used is whichever matchup is asked first in the available script. . .

Colorado—Advantage Clinton 44%, Trump 36.2%
Florida—Advantage Clinton 44.4, Trump 41.2
Iowa—Advantage Clinton 40.8, Trump 40.2
Michigan—Advantage Clinton 42.6, Trump 33.8
Nevada—Advantage Clinton 44, Trump 42
New Hampshire—Advantage Clinton 43, Trump 39.2
North Carolina—Advantage Clinton 44.4, Trump 40.2
Ohio—Advantage Clinton 43.8, Trump 41.8
Pennsylvania—Advantage Clinton 48.2, Trump 39.2
Virginia—Advantage Clinton 44.2, Trump 37.2
Wisconsin—Advantage Clinton 45.6, Trump 36.6

If you’re a Trump fan, don’t freak. Note that nobody has 50% in any of the swing states. There are a lot of undecided voters, and a lot of things could happen between now and November.

Now, let’s go back to the betting odds. Here are what the gamblers are guessing as the outcome in these same swing states:

Colorado—Advantage Clinton 87.4%, Trump 15.8%
Florida—Advantage Clinton 68.8, Trump 31.2
Iowa—Advantage Clinton 66.2, Trump 33.8
Michigan—Advantage Clinton 84.2, Trump 15.8
Nevada—Advantage Clinton 73.3, Trump 26.7
New Hampshire—Advantage Clinton 77,5, Trump 22.5
North Carolina—Advantage Clinton 59.3, Trump 40.7
Ohio—Advantage Clinton 70.4, Trump 29.6
Pennsylvania—Advantage Clinton 81.6, Trump 18.4
Virginia—Advantage Clinton 85.6, Trump 14.4
Wisconsin—Advantage Clinton 87.5, Trump 12.5

Once again, these are just the betting odds, not the vote prediction. These odds change every five minutes, so they could swing wildly over the next three months. Also remember that Trump’s numbers have suffered from things he has said. If he starts sounding more “presidential,” his numbers could change drastically.

Also, Julian Assange, of Wikileaks is dedicated to helping defeat Hillary. So is Russia’s Vladimir Putin. ISIS would also like to see a President Trump, because they think his style will help their recruitment (although he has said he’ll wipe them out, if elected). The point is, there are a lot of people who have a lot of power, who are dedicated to Hillary’s defeat, so Hillary’s current leads may be wiped out by just one big headline.

And, finally, back to betting. If I were a betting man, I may not want to bet on Trump taking the White House, but I’d be very tempted to bet on his taking some of these battleground states. Look at places I think would be a great bet:

IOWA—Hillary has only a two-point lead in the polls (a statistical tie), but a dollar on Trump will get you three back if he wins the state.

NEVADA—Another two point lead in the polls (statistically tied), but a dollar on Trump will get you four bucks back if he wins the state.

OHIO—Also statistically tied in the polls, but a dollar on Trump will get you almost three back.

Heck, if you put a dollar on each state, and Trump won only one of them, you’d still at least break even! And betting on the outcome in the gambling state of Nevada is such a wonderful irony that I might just do it, anyway.

49 COMMENTS

  1. What a bunch of BULL SHIT!!!!! Nobody I know likes Hillary. They are all in favor of Trump. My Facebook page is filled with nothing but Trump supporters and Hillary haters. If you go to her own Facebook page, even those people are posting negative comments about her. All the online polls say she is unfit for the presidency. Other polls say who will you vote for?, and the results are Trump 75%, Clinton 25%. I’m sick of all these rigged media manipulating polls.

    • First of all, these are NOT polls. They’re gambling odds. Real people are putting real money on that outcome. It has nothing to do with what voters think.

      And if “everybody” you know all agree on the same thing, you need to widen your circle of friends. One of the scariest things in the country these days is that half of us think “everybody” agrees with us, and the other half think “everybody” agrees with them.

      And, finally, as noted, the betting odds change every five minutes, so they will change a LOT over the next three months.

    • Well I guess that settles it then. “No one you know…” And then there is your Facebook page and online polls (which a person can vote on multiple times by using different devices or simply clearing their browser cache.) Who can argue with such resounding and solid data?

    • You may be seeing America through the distorted filter of your own projection, assuming that America is ONLY you, and people who look like you and think like you. The beauty of America is that we ARE the world, the full diversity of it. The multi-variegated perspective of us gives us an advantage globally, in our connections and understanding. Politically it takes a machine of vast complexity and undercurrents to bring us eventually to concensus where almost half of us will be displeased anyway. Still, there is a natural balance here, even in the chaos, and it is really kind of beautiful to watch.

    • The sheer stupidity of your comment just magnifies how incredibly arrogant and irrational Trump supporters are. Really? Everyone on your Facebook and social circle supports Trump? That couldn’t possibly be due to the fact that those you associate with are people that tend to share similar views as you. Please don’t vote, pro-create, or for that matter, ever do anything important that could endanger the lives of others. Dolt.

      • I feel sorry for you James. The only reason you say that about me is because you are extremely very, very, jealous of me. I know I’m a lot smarter than you and it bothers you. If you reply to THIS comment, it just proves I’m right.

        • No.., James is right you are a dolt. That is, if you ONLY associate with people that support Trump, who by the way praises Hitler, Kim Jong Un, and was hesitant to disassociate with the KKK… To put a cherry on top, he thinks Obama is the leader of ISIS… FFS, what has the country gone to.

          • Excuse me all to HELL! I see I have landed on some page that is being paid for by the Clinton campaign. Don’t worry people, you are going to get your wish. The old rag bag is going to win even though a low majority of people will be voting for her. The media has made this very obvious. I’ve seen this happen in past presidential races but never so prevalent as this one. I know despite everything I am reading about Trump’s popularity and Hillary’s unpopularity, she is still going to win. I have accepted that. Welcome to another four more years of Obamination.

            • Except President Obama did far better than any Republican that would have done in office. His approval ratings hover at or above 50%, the last president that had those kind of approval ratings while about to leave office was your savior Ronald Regan. So I will certainly take another 4 or 8 years of “Obamination” if it means LGBTQ folks get equal rights, unemployment continues to drop, and we end wars in country’s which Republicans put us in illegally. Dolt.

          • I keep waiting for his disciples to start chanting “Sieg Heil”…they’ve already kinda’ got the salute down pretty well.

          • Geeeez! I’m glad I’m not a Hillary supporter. I know I came off cross, but I left this discussion a long time ago. I didn’t want to cause anymore animosity. I will never leave the nasty comments all of you made of me supporting Trump. I guess that makes me a Trump fan, but I feel like me I’m more kind, considerate, caring, religious, and more closer to God than all of you are. I will pray for all of you. You obviously hate God and worship satin. This is scary. I have told all my friends about this site and they are going to stay away from it.

    • You don’t have a whole lot of real “friends”, do ya’? Other than the other usual inbred, uneducated backwoods trolls that “friended” you. Drumpf is a rascist, misogynist hump who wouldn’t be able to tell the truth–or even the same lie—twice if there was an AK-47 in his face. Know how you can tell when he’s lying? His lips are moving.

  2. Like you said, the polls and odds change every five minutes. We cannot forget about BREXIT. The betting odds were that 60% of people beleived the UK was going to stay in the EU. We all know how that turned out.?

    Billary is so far doing nothing to hurt Trump. All of his wounds, like you state are SELF INFLICTED.?

    As you also state, the Wicked Witch is one headline away from LEAVENWORTH. Trump may be a bombastic, misogynistic, racist egomaniac and all of the other wonderful adjectives that the left potray him as, but he is far more credible than Clinton. In her and her crime riddled family you have a legitimized MAFIA.?

    She is associated with murders, illeagal foreign donations to the CLINTON GLOBAL INITIATIVE which may have found their way into her WAR CHEST , for playing FAST AND LOOSE with her emails as Secretary of State, Benghazi and innumerable other shady shenanigans. For all these these and more people are willing to give her a PASS.

    If the Democrats, Never Trump Republicans and whoever else votes for her and God FORBID she is elected president, I will have to wonder where COMMON SENSE has gone to.?

    • Got anything other than ad hominems? Forget about either candidate’s scandals–based solely on what the candidates are promising to do for America, HRC looks pretty damn good compared to Trump. We used to have Reagan Democrats; today, thanks to Trump, we have Hillary Republicans.

        • Just name-calling, eh? Got nothing to say about immigration reform, gun control, climate change, or any issues whatsoever? Just regurgitating whatever your AM radio or Fox News programmed you with?

          Guys like you (and Trump) were rattling the cage four and eight years ago, swearing that Obama was going to take away our guns, that he’d doom the economy, etc. etc. And yet you still have the gall to keep on yapping away. Just like Trump.

          • Just like you can keep on yapping, I guess so can I. Or doesn’t that fit in with your IDEALISTIC world? One where not one person will have a different opinion than yours. Sorry unless you plan on being the first one to colonize the MOON, that world doesn’t exist.

            Also you accuse me of name calling, while you imply I am a ROBOT simply regurgitating what I hear. Is it OK for you to indirectly call me things but not so for me to be direct.

            I sense a DOUBLE STANDARD!!!?

          • My you are a witty fellow or in your case perhaps NITWIT?

            You must be rather dense to ask me if I can read, as we are each hurling insults at each other in fairly intelligible English. Perhaps you are a NITWIT!!!?

    • It’s okay. You can always move to Canada if you don’t like it here. 😉 Although that doesn’t quite seem fair to Canada—they might just have to build a wall and make the U.S. pay for it…

      • Yes I suppose I could move to Canada. Then again I could stay in the US. Unfortunately if I did stay, I would have to put up with idiots like you.

        By the way, I happen to be a dual citizen of Canada and the US. For me the door is always open, for you I don’t know. Canada is rather picky and I don’t know if RIFF RAFF like you would be welcome.?

  3. I’m guessing because more Conservatives / Independents will stay home than Liberals – thus HRC (Die Hündin) will probably win. Obama tried very hard to take our guns and did all he could to create insurrection to give him the opportunity to declare Martial Law. Crazy Hillary will continue all his policies on steroids plus bring in 5X the unvetted Syrians thus increase the Fundamentalist Jihadists for terror on the U.S.. She will also add 2 or 3 very Liberal Supreme Court Justices. I would not be surprised if the Constitution and B.ofR. is re-written, the Executive Dept given even more LEGAL power, 2nd Amend disappears, 1st Amend re-written to be more P.C..- 4th will go away. Within 3 years we will be the USSA Totalitarian controlled and very near Anarchy. She is also very beholden to Middle-East powers and they will further influence U.S. Policies and Islam in general will flourish at the expense of Christianity and Judaism.

    • Hey, SAM!

      I don’t think conservatives will stay home. There’s more interest in this election than any in our lifetime. If Trump would just stop saying stupid things, his ratings would rise.

      But I’ve got a question for you. The Republicans are actively trying to be the “workers’ party.” And so, at some point, they will have to take on workers’ issues. Trump is already against the typical Republican issues–against free trade, against international involvement, against nation-building, against corporate wellfare–and in favor of the minimum wage, Planned Parenthood, payments to parents for child care, and so on.

      In the 60s, the South switched from Democratic to Republican. In the 80s, Reagan Democrats switched. White workers are still switching now. In short, the FDR coalition is moving to support the GOP. So, here’s my question: what if the GOP now takes up FDR’s policies, to please its new base? What do you do then?

      • Hi Goethe – not sure I can equate all the labels. Early in the primaries Trump wasn’t aware of the very biased MSM and said a lot of hurtful things. Later he just quit “giving a s**t.” If the MSM would react as negative to HRC statements (ie., “Trump is a recruiter for ISIS” vs “BHO & HRC are founders of ISIS”) and focus on all of HRC’s issues as much as they do Trumps it might be a tighter race. But Pubs since Ike have had to win against Dems AND MSM and Trump has taken issue, which has made MSM even more protective of HRC. If a Pub had her issues they would be in jail.

        When you say “Republicans” that is no longer a homogenous group. Most of we Pubs have left that party and are Independents vs Pubs and lean a lot towards Libertarians but never so far as P.C. Libs. I think Trump is more Libertarian than Pub.

        That is a good part of why establishment Pubs don’t like him. Plus he has called out establisment for being do-nothing politicians.

        I think you still spend too much time on MSM (especially CNN and MSNBC + the alphabet networks just follow the cable networks lead) Actually Trump wants to change Free to Fair and put America 1st instead of HBO’s last. He is not against international involvement but is against World involvement and their treating the U.S. like caca. America 1st. No modern Pub or Independent wants to nation build anymore just stay th fk out of U.S. “Bidness”. Also Trump or Pubs are not against minimum wage. Would prefer the economy get better so only workers working part-time or just starting out are working for minimum wage (a modern economy ~$10/hr). Trump also wants to put everyone back to work so corporate welfare and welfare in general is minimized. I don’t think Trump has a problem (or Pubs /Independents/Libertarians) have a problem with tax deductions for Child care. Planned Parenthood falls into the “personal choices” and should not be government funded. A lot of us follow the creed of the Libertarian and personal choice is one of our freedoms but don’t expect it to be “in our face”, or government funded, or neccessarily P.C. We wont be anymore prejudiced than the personal choice person. If you can do the job, who gives a flying f. if we are a LBGT or not. Even fundalmentalist Christians say “we think it is wrong” but GOD will let you know. And Spiritual but not Religious, like myself, say “you picked the main events of your life before you came here maybe you chose a LBGT function for the emotional experience, just don’t burden me with responsibilty related to it.”

        FDR was a little more Lib and I don’t think new or old Pubs / Independents will succumb to government control of FDR but would probably go with JFK’s policies except war.

        The biggest issues Trump should focus on is economies, bring our GDP back up, bringing our mfg’g back (including his Ties), annilhilating all external Jihadism for a cou[ple hundred more years (Muslim’s can fight their personal beliefs if they are worthy of Allah all they want), and re-building a Boss military (btw, that in its self is a great job creator and trainer) so no one wants to fk with us.

        Don’t know if I covered it all – In reality Liberal businesses own all the voting tabulators so they will be the determiners of election results.

        • No, actually, I don’t watch ANY tv. I get all my news by scanning the Internet–Politico, RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, Daily Caller, Breitbart, Reuters, Yahoo, and a few others. Each of them will have links to other sites. If you see whom I’ve quoted, it’s never the MSM, unless I’ve been directed there by Washington Times, or someone.

          But you’re missing my point. What I’m saying is that the GOP has drawn in The Solid South, blue collar workers, and a few other constituencies that used to be Democratic. At some point, if they develop the same coalition that FDR had, won’t they, of necessity, have to give those voters what used to be the Democratic policies? Won’t the parties just switch identities–with the Dems becoming the Wall Street, banking, and corporate party that the GOP was in FDR’s time?

          As for Kennedy, he was much more liberal than FDR. The liberal policies LBJ pushed through were really mostly JFK’s ideas, which LBJ acknowledged. Fighting poverty was a main goal of JFK’s “The New Frontier,” and he championed increased unemployment benefits, aid to urban housing, a water pollution act, increases in social security payments and the minimum wage, school milk and lunch programs, reintroduction of food stamps, arms control and disarmament. And surely, you remember his staring down the steel industry, which had tried to increase prices.

          From Wikipedia:
          According to Theodore White, under John F. Kennedy, more new legislation was actually approved and passed into law than at any other time since the Thirties. When Congress recessed in the latter part of 1961, 33 out of 53 bills that Kennedy had submitted to Congress were enacted. A year later, 40 out of 54 bills that the Kennedy Administration had proposed were passed by Congress, and in 1963 35 out of 58 “must” bills were enacted. As noted by Larry O’Brien, “A myth had arisen that he [Kennedy] was uninterested in Congress, or that he “failed” with Congress. The facts, I believe, are otherwise. Kennedy’s legislative record in 1961–63 was the best of any President since Roosevelt’s first term.”

          When I see Republicans try to claim JFK and Democrats try to claim Reagan, I just laugh.

          • Goethe – You certainly know more about JFK (and LBJ as well). From ’59 to ’69 I was an active duty enlisted Navy either bobbing around on a TinCan or aircrewing on a patrol P2 and worried what fight the presidents were going to get me into. I wasn’t Pub or Dem, just thrilled when I went from AcDu to drilling Reserve and went to work for an AeroSpace Co.

            I guess JFK made me proud to be a U.S. Navyman but LBJ made me feel my country was becoming a Socialist nation not a Democratic-Republic. Plus JFK never told LBJ what he and his brother were doing so LBJ was like a lost kid in Natl politics. So it doesn’t surprise me that he continued what he thought JFK wanted to do. Plus his party wanted the US to be the USSA. We may well still be in Nam if left to LBJ.

            IF JFK has lived and stayed till ’68, I think he would have done things much differently than LBJ.

            As I said earlier, the GOP is no longer homogeneous, it is very broken. Their Platform still espouses McCain’s era but HBO charmed and wooed the voters with a promised of “CHANGE” and the voters were sick of war. Unfortunately HBO didn’t define the kind of change and the media never vetted him (the MSM were mesmerized and too busy trying to destroy Bush and Cheney) or listened to D’Souza.

            IMO – Some of your media sources are close to nuetral except Politico and Reuters (Strong Liberal, not as bad as Huff Post or Wash Post) and Daily Caller (Conservative & Libertarian but not as strong as FOXnews.com). All that said the general population of televised MSM both cable and alphabet networks very heavily influence the general public by what they focus on and what they ignore plus their commentary and questioning. They all favor Clinton and dis-favor Trump.

            The Administration is in lock-step to protect Clinton and the MSM further protect her. If this were the GOP, lots of people would already be in jail. i.e. see Nixon and a 18min tape gap.

            I believe that greater than 50% of Conservatives have left the GOP, no one cares any longer about the constituency of the GOP. While we still prescribe to the 9 year old platform we also prescribe to a great deal of the Libertarian platform with two major caveats – stay isolated as much as possible but if attacked, kick ass. And fundamental Christians may not be as open to Personal Liberty as most of us.

            If You and I and a couple others go back a couple of years we talked about a new party that was similar to part GOP, part Libertarian and call it the Constitution party. I still think that’s a good idea.

            Unfortunately, unless a Dem catastrophe, I think 1) GOP insiders + Never Trump and 2) The Media and blind Libs will elect Clinton and we may well see the end of a two party system. I think we will be looking at the destruction of our Democratic-Republic and ruin that I discussed earlier in this thread.

            • I think it’s quite likely that Johnson will make 15% to get into the debates. If he does, it’ll be a real game-changer, because what he says appeals to both sides. The only problem is that Johnson, personally, is such a “goober.” If Ron Paul were a little younger, he could have made the debates, and if someone with his gravitas were on the stage, Clinton and Trump would have blended in with the scenery.

              Yes, JFK did have a way to make us proud to be Americans. I mean, everyone “liked” Ike, but there was a genuine passing of the torch. JFK really was the leader of the new generation–“tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace, proud of our ancient heritage–and unwilling to witness or permit the slow undoing of those human rights to which this nation has always been committed, and to which we are committed today at home and around the world.”

              And I forgot to mention The Peace Corps, What a shocking idea at the time–which was a powerful call to duty, to spread our ideals by truly trying to help–on an individual basis.

            • Ike was very anti-war because of WWII, and the U.S. much like now, had no respect on a world basis. My 1st WesrPac cruise was under Ike and 2nd one under JFK – big difference in respect we were given overseas.

              I agree we try very hard to continue human rights, however we are at huge odds with a majority of Sharia and they should leave us alone and we leave them alone. Personal Choice is just that, and an individual’s choice is fine as long as the individual (or Regime) doesn’t influence some one else.

              I think the Peace Corps was a great idea altho as a strong military man, at the time I considered it candy-ass. My present thoughts are that ALL teenagers @ 18 be drafted. If they don’t want military then do two years in Peace Corps or a hospital. If chosen, draftee could start down their educational path with government assistance and when out then VA benefits for education. It is also possible to get basic tradesman skills. The 2 or 3 years give a teenager a chance to mature and really decide what they want to do when they grow up and also observe real world. If really serious start night school while on active duty or alternate. Some of us chose a career while on active duty, but even now don’t know what we want to do when we grow up. And I’m retired.

              Johnson has many good thoughts for his Platform and maybe get another 7 points to be in the debates but he is a jokester and wingnut and not sure he would do well in a debate. I also think he will take votes from Trump and not Clinton.

            • Ordinarily, the Libertarian would take from the Republicans, but if you look at the polls, Hillary beats Trump one-on-one, but breaks even with Johnson in.

              My guess is that Hillary is getting NeverTrump support, but if Johnson is an option, NeverTrump goes there, instead.

              Interesting. I would have thought foreigners would have been respectful of the General. Although, I had a German professor who was there, and the Germans said they knew if the troops coming were Eisenhower’s–because they only fought 8 to 5. Not sure if that’s true, but that’s what he said.

            • I hope you are correct about Johnson taking Hillary and Bernie votes, but I’m not confident of that.

              Not sure about your German Prof. Ike wasn’t very well respected by most of his compadres or Alliance brass. Ike never commanded troops on the front line or in battle and everyone knew that. He was mainly a Chief of Staff administrator and when given command it was at HQ for an entire Theater – Bradley said, “had little grasp of sound battlefield tactics”. As far as I know all our troops fought 24-7.

            • Johnson on the debate stage would be the best thing for Trump. He wouldn’t debate Cruz or Bernie one-on-one because he’s not good one-on-one. But he’s a master of using other people on the stage.

              If it’s just Hillary and Trump, he’ll look like an oaf and bully. But if Johnson’s there, the two wishy-washy characters will make Trump look like the only straight talker.

            • Sam: I didn’t want to get into it much, because I was waiting for today’s article on “The Seventh Party System.”

              Parties change over time. African-Americans were all for the “Party of Lincoln,” until Nixon. Likewise, the Solid South was all Democratic until then. Also, in the early 20th Century, the Republican Party was the “liberal” party, based in the northeast–but now, those people have become Democrats. (Remember that the very reason Teddy Roosevelt ran as an independent was that he didn’t think Taft was progressive enough!)

              Somehow, up to now, the GOP has been able to hold together a party of growing blue collar registration, while at the same time, espousing policies that primarily favor the rich and business interests. On the other side, the Democrats have railed against big business and banks–but since Bill Clinton, have been courting these interests.

              Southern whites had no problem suddenly becoming Republicans in the 1960s and 70s. What if you wake up some day and find that all your ideals are now espoused by Democrats??

            • Goethe – until you brought it up I had never heard of “The Seventh Party System”. I’m not a political pundit, so I did a little rifling thru the net. Unfortunately the only opinions were Liberal based and very much anti-Trump and anti Pub. So I can’t help but be biased and wonder why there are no centrist / independent writers discussing the history of politics. Maybe there are a lot like me that are not recent history oriented but more towards resolving the present decay and corrections needed to return us toward the original Constitutional Democratic-Republic and minimized world influenced.

              All opinions glorified Bill C. and blamed Reagan and Bush for our present condition. Everyone tends to forget that the last two years of Bush was a Democratic controlled congress plus the housing bubble started and dot com collaspe actually happened during Willy’s reign.

              I think people don’t realize that the white South is very patriotic and heavily Fundamental Christian. This is very anti-Liberal.

              I believe the MSM has stoked the rumor about uneducated white and blue collar. Most conservatives I know are both blue and white collar, both black and white but most of all EDUCATED. Some of them, me included had to take the liberal underwater bakestweaving to be “well rounded” but focused on our technical or business majors to enhance growth and production in our majors.

              My ideology will never be espoused in the Democrats party as that party is rapidly becoming the Socialist party. What they don’t realize, is to get to pure Socialism politically you have to go thru Communism. Unfortunately that means some form financial disaster and some level of Totalitarianism (which by the way we are very fking close to now).

              If you look at the Libertarian Platform, I’m relatively close to that. The Democrats Platform want big government, government control, no military, an abundance of social program, vast amounts taken from the Rich (except them) give to poor, working or not, succumb to the UN. Everything to be P.C. as long as it’s their P.C.

              The thing of it is Trump, while not my best choice, and contrary that the MSM is trying is trying to mis-label him, has to be my choice as best chance. He tells it like it is, will modify his Platform if that’s what his clan says to do (and mean it). Is not racist or bigoted as claimed, or anti-women and wants America as a nation to be first.

              Die Hündin is a huge BIGOT, self centered, self idolizing, while educated – it didn’t stick, dumb as a stump, cannot think on her own, but most of all as crooked as Al Capone and probably responsible for as many deaths. She will lie like a rug, say anything to win votes and the Democrats Top Choice.

              That is why I will never wake up with Democrats’ ideology!!!

            • But my point is that these things take years to occur. The flip of the Solid South took a generation. As their constituencies change, their policies will change.

              I think EVERYBODY knows that southern whites are “very patriotic and fundamental Christian.” But “patriotism” is not the same as “nationalism.” I don’t think the old saying, “my country, right or wrong” is patriotic. If the government is wrong, we should oppose it. “Government” and “country” are not the same thing.

              No doubt that many conservatives are very well educated. I used to love to listen to William F. Buckley, for instance. The reason the media is focusing on the “uneducated” is that the group had been aligned with the Democrats since FDR. The news is that they are flipping. No one is saying you have to be uneducated to be a conservative.

            • Other traits come into play. The South is not just patriotic but are probably even more Nationalistic. They fly the Rebel flag, not to be racist, but to ensure that everyone realizes that “we are Southerners and our part of the country is better than your part! – don’t believe it just ask us!” The majority of the South are also strong 2nd Amendent and use their guns not only for protection but do hunt a lot – which btw usually requires a long gun. As the Democrats became less patriotic and certainly less Nationalistic and drove towards Socialism the 2nd Amendment gets in the way of that. Plus the LGBT movement further enflames Fundamental Christians.

              If someone is proud to be a U.S. citizen I don’t understand why they don’t advocate Capitalism and freedom to try and better themselves. That is why MOST legal immigrants come here. The hardest part for an immigant is to assimilate – often takes years.

              Politically, a lot of voters are in a bit of a quandry. No one Party can set a Platform that satisfies all of a voters thoughts on policy, So become an Independent and hope that someone puts up a candidate that will have most of the traits you advocate.

              Religion is suffering the same fracturing as politics. For religion so many are realizing the constraints are based on the words in print didn’t come direct from GOD but from the followers of the Master they followed. And are structed to create a larger following and have control. Such that the phrase “Spiritual but not Religious” came to be.

              As a result, so many people are becoming more independent from a political and / or a religious standpoint.

            • When I was a kid, I was patriotic to the nation, but didn’t care about city or state. Now, I feel most loyal to my family, then to my neighborhood, then to my city, county, state, and then country, in that order.

              I think you are giving most people too much credit. What I see is people who belong to a political “tribe,” and they will fight for the issues of that tribe, regardless of whether it actually is against their personal interests.

              I think that’s the same for religion for older people–they believe in their tribal gods. Young people are more dubious about politics and religion.

              The only reason people are looking at independents this year is that the major party candidates are both so gawd-awful.

            • For me, family always came 1st till I joined the Navy – priorities changed when I got a more global view of the world. My complete immediate family has Transitioned so now I only desire to keep the world safe for my wife, daughter/son-in-law, & granddaughter. I don’t believe Clinton can do that but possibly Trump can.

              I still think people become more independent when they feel more confident in themselves and don’t require the “Tribal” culture to have that “belonging” feeling. Actually as they grow older their knowledge broadens and exposure to multi-cultures allow greater perspective on what is and what isn’t. Especially with communications reducing the size of the world and the ease of research via the Net. There are very few questions that the Net has no response to especially related to spirituality or politics.

            • I guess I have less faith in people than you do. I think most people are just clawing to get by, economically or emotionally. I don’t believe that most people actually think about what they believe–in religion or politics. Everybody they know thinks a certain way, so they do, too.

              Back to loyalty, I happened to see part of “A Few Good Men” yesterday, and the Marine said his code was “Unit, Corps, God, Country.” I looked it up, and there are variations of that, but in all of them, it put God ahead of country, and the corps varied in position.

            • I think we have about exhausted this, however, at my age, I personally don’t care what others think unless it impacts me or mine. To each his own, so to speak.

              As far as the “Crotch” is concerned – the “Unit” or immediate group is concerned, all military is of the mind, “have your comrades’ back” and “leave no soul or body behind”. From there the Crotch (Corps) is a little more proprietary, than the rest of us – it depends on the company we’re with. For most of us GOD is not part of the equation because the moraility clause (Law of Reciprocality [Golden Rule]) is prevalent no matter what. It is understood, in general the “unit”, “service”, all belong to the “country” and that is what we fight to protect. BTW my newest website, http://LifeBetweenLives.US under “I Believe” I mention that the core of every religion is based on “The Golden Rule”.

  4. I love the various derogatory and misogynist names that Drumpf’s sycophants use for Hillary–hag, witch, etc.–nothing surprises me. Says a lot about the candidate and his view of women in general. Wouldn’t expect any less of their ilk. It’s typical of sheep to use the same rhetoric as their pathetic leader–guess it’s just easier than to have to think for themselves.

  5. OK, folks.

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