This race is coming down to the wire, at least in California, where the latest poll gives Sanders a 1 point edge among Democratic primary voters. The race has been tightening significantly in recent weeks, now it’s clearly a toss-up heading into Tuesday.

Report from the LA Times:

Hillary Clinton’s popularity has slumped in California under an unrelenting challenge from Bernie Sanders, who has succeeded in breaching the demographic wall Clinton had counted on to protect her in the state’s presidential primary, a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll has found.

As he has done across the country this primary season, Sanders commands the support of younger voters by huge margins in advance of Tuesday’s primary — even among Latinos and Asians, voter groups that Clinton easily won when she ran eight years ago. Many of his backers come from a large pool of voters who have registered for the first time in the weeks before the election.

Yet, Tuesday’s outcome remains difficult to predict, precisely because of the untested nature of Sanders’ following. That portends an intense fight in the final days of the campaign.

The Vermont senator has battled Clinton to a draw among all voters eligible for the Democratic primary, with 44% siding with him to 43% for Clinton. That represented a nine-point swing from a USC/Los Angeles Times poll in March, in which Clinton led handily.

A nine-point swing from March, when Hillary was leading all California polls handily. I’m not sure what to make to the fact that this primary is still contested. What particular issues are still holding reluctant Democrats back from embracing Hillary as the nominee? Is it her email scandal, general distrust, or is this solely about the issues and finding a candidate that will push progressive ideals?

California is going to be a nail-biter on Tuesday night, and it will probably be into the early morning hours on Wednesday before we might know who comes out victorious.

16 COMMENTS

  1. “Yet, Tuesday’s outcome remains difficult to predict, precisely because of the untested nature of Sanders’ following.” After the tens of millions he has spent in CA and number of days he has been there, his poll numbers statistically should improve. This last ditch desperate effort to be relevant has become pitiful.

    • Why are AMERICAN VOTERS pitiful? Bernie’s “last ditch desperate efforts” are resonating with AMERICAN CITIZENS. Every vote counts towards the final narrative of this primary contest. The math may say the contest is unlikely to yield a Bernie nomination, but step back and look at the big picture. Hillary just started counting her chickens before they hatched and is now looking weak.

      • Hilary will win the nomination on Tues. After the New Jersey primary she will be announce as the presumptive nominee. Sanders has stepped on so many toes for DNC and has made them angry. Sanders should have never used the Democratic party to campaign unders. He is not faithful to the party. He has used the party for political gain and that is that. The delegates will nominate Hilary. Sanders has no chance of persuading that many super delegates to flip to his side. He has managed to insult and disrespect the DP. He is a bonified user and loser. An old crotchety man with solid signs of dementia. Anger is a sign of Dementia. So even if they split the delegates from California non the less he will lose. Hilary has been very diplomatic in campaigning against Sanders. But Sanders has continued to defy the DP and is treating them with no repect. He should be ashamed. He needs to put his big boy pants on and drop out gracefully before the DNC.

        • Ai, Christina, so much blaming, lies, calling bad names and no selfreflection. And you vote Clinton? Nice advertisement for her. Not.

        • My mother and father in law both suffer from Alzheimer’s and dementia. You are a shameful and sad human being. Politics has shaped you into a very uncompasionate and ugly person Christina. I forgive your hatred and win at all cost mentality. I pray you receive happiness in your miserable existence.

          • I am sorry if I insulted you and your family. My reasoning on Bernie having Dementia ia from experience. I am a Registered Nurse and many of the first signs of Dementia is anger towards others. I to had a parent who suffered from Dementia and yes it is very heartbreaking. Again I apoligize.

          • As far as Sanders and his continued denia of winning this campaign, I truly believe he is using the Democratic party for his own political gain. He has never represented the party as a Senator and I find it so very deceiving that he continues to do this. He is not a Democrat and should have never been allowed to use the party to run dor the presidency. His record as a senator is a independent and that is how he votes. So, why did he choose to enter the primary as a Democrate? For his own political gain!

      • Not so, Hilary has the popular vote by thousands and the delegates whether she wins or loses California. The math does show it as it did from the beginning a year ago. And yes I will vote for who ever the Democratic winner is. Why? I am a true Democrat not an imposter!

      • I live in California and I was a die-hard Sanders supporter, but the way
        he has acted over the last month has made me look at him in a different
        light. One of the things I loved about him was that he seemed like a
        very honest man who seemed to want to focus on the issues but then all
        of a sudden, he started acting like Trump. Everybody’s picking on him
        and his latest antics are hurting our party tremendously. I don’t want
        Trump to win. Bernie ran a good race but Hillary has millions more
        votes then he does and it’s time he started backing the democratic party
        as he promised. It’s obvious to me he isn’t a democrat.

  2. Lee Tomlinson he went from 40 points down to pulling even before he started campaigning in CA.

  3. The poll was taken May 19-31, so if it reflected a trend, we have more than a week since then. On the other hand, the poll was taken before Jerry Brown endorsed Hillary. It was a weak endorsement, but his endorsements seem to carry weight.

    Another thing to note is that the 44-43% number is of “eligible” voters. Among those “likely” to vote, Hillary was ahead 49-39%.

    Among registered Democrats, Hillary was ahead 46-42%. And among “likely” Democratic voters, she was ahead 53-37%.

    Of course, in California, non-Democrats are eligible to vote for the Democratic candidate. Among independents, Bernie lead 48-35%.

    Among those under 50, Sanders held a 27-point advantage among all
    Democratic primary voters and a 21-point edge among likely voters. Among
    those over 50, Clinton led by 32 points among both groups.

  4. This is a bullshit article. None of the 538 polls have her this close, definitely not behind. Nate Silver has her winning at 98%

    • Nate Silver had Hillary winning Michigan at over 99% certainty.

      http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

      Hillary lost Michigan.

      http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/michigan

      I’m not saying Bernie will win California, but I think the race is a toss-up. The poll I reference above by the LA Times literally was released just today, so it’s not included in any of the averages yet.

      Nate Silver does amazing work at 538, I love reading and referencing his work, but it’s not without an error rate, and he’s the first to say that.

    • FYI, “Election Betting Odds” reflects an actual betting market, in which people put down real money. And they say Hillary has a 66.1% chance to win California.

      As for 538, they had Hillary up 50.5-41.8% on May 31, dropping to 47.7-43% as of yesterday. That’s a shift of 4% in two days. If that’s a trend, Bernie “could” gain 10% in the next five days, ending ahead at about 48-42.7%, with 9.3% flipping a coin. If that’s a trend.

  5. Hillary is just inches away from the magic figure . Even if Sanders wins in California it would be too little and too late.Clinton is going to be DP’s candidate for sure.

  6. The only way Sanders can win is to get 75-80% of the remaining votes and gain a majority of the pledged delegates. Super delegates are only likely to switch to a candidate that has he higher popular vote/delegate count. A 1% lead (or 20%) at this stage won’t achieve anything.

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