The Des Moines Register, Iowa’s newspaper of record, has released their final poll prior to the Iowa caucuses which take place on Monday, February 1. The poll shows good news for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, both are thought to be leading though not by an overwhelming amount. Clinton has seen Bernie Sanders make serious strides to close the gap in recent weeks so the race may end up very close on the Democratic side.
Here is the breakdown of this poll for each party in a readable format:
Republican (full results)
28% – Trump
23% – Cruz
15% – Rubio
10% – Carson
5% – Paul
3% – Christie
2% – Bush, Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, Santorum
This is good news for Donald Trump since an Iowa victory would give him substantial momentum heading into New Hampshire, a state which he handily leads. If Cruz is able to upset Trump, even by a small margin, it will shakeup the race heading into South Carolina where Cruz may be able to capitalize on an Iowa win. The other possibility of a Trump win is that several candidates drop out and Rubio gets a bounce from some of the other establishment candidates dropping out.
Now for the Democratic side, here is the polling breakdown:
Democrats (full results)
45% – Clinton
42% – Sanders
3% – O’Malley
For Sanders to be just 3 points behind must be causing some heartburn in the Clinton campaign. She’s still the favorite to win, and in all likelihood she will, but there is certainly a 50% chance (or greater) that Sanders could pull an upset.
The Des Moines Register has been exceptionally accurate since 1988. In fact, since that time, they have predicted correctly each year with the exception of 2012 when Rick Santorum beat Mitt Romney by just 34 votes.